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The Cleveland Browns open up the 2021 NFL season against the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are looking to make their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance this year, but the Browns are out to avenge their AFC Divisional Round loss to Kansas City in last season's playoffs. Cleveland enjoyed it's best season since 2007 last year, but the Browns' high expectations for 2021 starts with a game against one of the NFL's best teams.

Kansas City is a five-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Browns odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 54.5. The only game last season in which the Chiefs were a single-digit home favorite came in the season-opener against Houston, where they were favored by 9.5-points and won 34-20. Cleveland was only 3-5 against the spread on the road in 2020, and 1-3 as an underdog. Before entering any Browns vs. Chiefs picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Browns. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Browns vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Browns spread: Chiefs -5
  • Chiefs vs. Browns over-under: 54.5 points

What you need to know about the Chiefs

Kansas City's offensive line troubles were on full display in the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs addressed that issue in the offseason by signing Joe Thuney to a five-year, $80 million deal and trading for Orlando Brown Jr. Cleveland had the fewest quarterback knockdowns in the league in 2020, and blitzed at the third-lowest rate among all teams. Even though Cleveland signed Jadeveon Clowney, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes should still be able to get his passes off.

Cleveland was the fourth-worst defense against opposing tight ends last season, and Kansas City's offense features arguably the best player at the position in Travis Kelce. When the two teams met in the playoffs last season, Kelce finished with 8 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. 

What you need to know about the Browns

Last season, the Browns posted their best regular season since the franchise was reactivated in 1999. They beat the Steelers in the first round of the AFC playoffs, 48-37. It was Cleveland's first postseason victory since 1994. The Browns were third best in rushing yards per game, finishing the 2020 regular season with 148.4 on average. 

Nick Chubb rushed for 12 TDs in 12 games last season. Former Chief Kareem Hunt totaled 11 TDs from scrimmage, his third season with 10-plus scores. Odell Beckham Jr., who has been recovering from a torn ACL, is listed as questionable for Week 1. 

How to make Chiefs vs. Browns picks

The model has simulated Chiefs vs. Browns 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Browns? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college football picks.