History says the Rams should've known better than to trade up to No. 1
The Tennessee Titans are set up for the future in a big way thanks to the haul they got from the Rams.
By
Will Brinson
•
3 min read
The Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams got together on Thursday (well, technically Wednesday but they had to wait for Kobe Bryant) and made a massive blockbuster deal that will have ramifications for years.
Tennessee gave up the No. 1 overall pick plus a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick in this year's draft in exchange for an incredible haul -- six picks total -- from the Rams, including their first-round pick this year and their first-round pick next year.
It's fascinating the Rams would do this, because they are the same team that depantsed the Redskins in the 2012 draft-day trade for Robert Griffin III.
If anyone should know about the potential devastating issues that can arise from trading up in the draft to land a quarterback -- and the Rams are taking a quarterback, we just don't know if it's Jared Goff or Carson Wentz yet -- it's Jeff Fisher and Les Snead. They didn't just win the RG3 trade, they annihilated the Redskins in the deal.
In terms of this year's deal, not so much. The Rams lost the trade, just based on draft value, by examining both the Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart and the more modern Chase Stuart Trade Chart.
No offense to the Rams, but we'll base our points value for the future picks on the Rams holding hte 15th-overall pick next year. Finish higher than 7-9 and prove us wrong:
| Comparing Draft Hauls | ||||
| Team | Pick | JJ Trade Value | CS Trade Value | |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-15 | 1050 | 17.4 | |
| 2-43 | 470 | 10.6 | ||
| 2-45 | 450 | 10.4 | ||
| 3-76 | 210 | 7.0 | ||
| 1-??? | 1050 | 17.4 | ||
| 3-??? | 210 | 7.0 | ||
| Total | ---- | 3440 | 69.8 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1-1 | 3000 | 34.6 | |
| 4-113 | 68 | 4.5 | ||
| 6-177 | 20.6 | 1.6 | ||
| Total | ----- | 3088 | 40.7 | |
NFL teams generally operate on the Johnson trade chart, and it's pretty clear the Rams and Titans were doing so here.
It's obviously much closer in terms of value for the Rams (3088.6 points) and the Titans (3440 points). This of course changes in the Rams favor if they do well and make the playoffs.
But it could swing towards the Titans in a big way if the Rams implode and finish with a top-10 pick.
A perfect example of this? The Rams-Redskins trade:
| Comparing Draft Hauls | ||||
| Team | Pick | JJ Trade Value | CS Trade Value | |
| St. Louis Rams | 1-6 | 1600 | 23.2 | |
| 2-39 | 510 | 11.3 | ||
| 1-22 | 780 | 14.9 | ||
| 1-2 | 2600 | 30.2 | ||
| Total | ---- | 5490 | 79.6 | |
| Washington Redskins | 1-2 | 2600 | 30.2 | |
| Total | ----- | 2600 | 30.2 | |
The Redskins made a huge mistake trading up for RG3. That much is obvious. It depleted their roster depth and left them without a first-round talent for two years. But if RG3 is the future of the franchise, it's probably not a devastating trade.
Remember, they gave up a future No. 2 overall pick as part of the haul, although after 2012 and Griffin winning the Rookie of the Year award they probably didn't see that outcome looming.
If they make the playoffs again -- or just don't finish as the second-worst team in the NFL -- the trade looks reasonable. Maybe we're talking about Griffin's contract right now instead of Kirk Cousins, but no, the injury to Griffin in 2012 didn't matter at all. No, not at all.
Anyway, look the point is this: If the Rams select a quarterback who eventually becomes their franchise quarterback and who leads them to the playoffs (and potentially further), they can viably say they "won" this deal.
It is very rare, however, when trading up for a quarterback -- particularly at the cost of trading up to the top five or 10 for one -- pans out well for the team moving up.
.@ESPNStatsInfo's list of QBs acquired via trades into the top-5 since 1990: RG3, Sanchize, Mike Vick, Ryan Leaf, Kerry Collins, Jeff George
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) April 14, 2016
But from a perspective of acquiring the most assets possible and being as smart about roster building as they possibly could and being as patient and forward-thinking about constructing a potential championship squad, they lost this deal.
They gave the Titans four different picks inside the top 50, including three this year, which gives the Titans the same sort of ammunition the Rams had circa 2013. With Marcus Mariota already in the fold, if Jon Robinson hits on these selections, it could dramatically alter the course of the Titans franchise.
