Is the Lions' championship window closed? Detroit's to-do list includes addressing OL, improving defense
Detroit has missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022
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7 min read
The Detroit Lions were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17 with their 23-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day.
It's Detroit's first time missing the playoffs since 2022, Dan Campbell's second year in charge. In between, the Lions reached unprecedented heights, including a franchise-record 15 wins in 2024 and a 12-win campaign in 2023. Those represent two of the three 12-win seasons in franchise history. The stretch was also the first time the Lions made successive playoff appearances since 1993-95.
With that as a background, the Lions entered the season with some of the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl. Now, a few months later, they have gone from NFL darlings to disappointments with significant questions ahead.
What went wrong in 2025?
Ben Johnson left town
It's the elephant in the room. As Johnson leads the Chicago Bears to the playoffs in his first season as head coach in the Windy City, the Lions couldn't find an answer at the post he left: offensive coordinator. The Lions hired John Morton as offensive coordinator -- he was also on their staff in 2022 and had previous ties to Campbell -- but by November, Campbell had taken over play-calling duties.
The offense has been better with Campbell calling plays than it was with Morton calling plays, but still not up to the level it was when Johnson was running plays.
Lions offense by play caller | 2024 (Johnson) | 2025 Weeks 1-9 (Morton) | 2025 Weeks 10-16 (Campbell) |
Yards per play | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.5 |
Success rate | 52.8% | 47.3% | 44.7% |
Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 10.7% | 15.6% |
Expected points added per play | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
Johnson's attack was the most efficient, while Campbell's has produced more big plays -- though it's too small of a sample size to draw any significant conclusions.
Still, Morton had big shoes to fill and didn't end up filling them. Campbell's performance has been better, but Detroit will likely be looking for a new offensive coordinator for the second time in as many offseasons.
Offensive line took a predictable step back
Johnson, of course, had the added benefit of one of the NFL's best offensive lines. A cracks emerged when Kevin Zeitler left for Tennessee, but the bigger rupture was the sudden retirement of 29-year-old center Frank Ragnow, a four-time Pro Bowler and three-time second-team All-Pro. Ragnow tried to make a brief comeback attempt but failed his physical. Ragnow was an elite run blocker and a massive help for Jared Goff, and his on-field/off-field splits painted a picture of a player whose absence would prove more detrimental than many other interior offensive linemen.
Detroit did its best to replace the irreplaceable. Graham Glasgow moved to center, and Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge stepped in at the guard spots. But Mahogany missed time, too, sending little-used backup Kayode Awosika to guard. In their devastating Week 16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with their season on the line, the Lions started former undrafted rookie Kingsley Eguakun at center with Glasgow out.
Though Pro Football Focus grades are hardly a be-all, end-all, they did show a significant downturn for Detroit's offensive line.
| Lions PFF rankings | Pass blocking | Run blocking |
|---|---|---|
2023 | 9th | 2nd |
2024 | 18th | 3rd |
2025 (through Week 16) | 22nd | 10th |
Goff has been sacked and pressured at higher rates than he was in 2023 and 2024 despite being blitzed less often than he was in either of the two seasons prior.
Therein lies an issue. Pressure has always been Goff's bugaboo, and he got more of it this year. In a league where the margins are slim, that slight uptick had a big impact. Goff was pressured on just 32.4% of his dropbacks in 2024; that number has risen to 35.9% in 2025.
| Jared Goff EPA per play ranks with Lions | No pressure | Pressure | Pressure rate |
|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 20th | 29th | 33.0% |
2022 | 4th | 16th | 30.0% |
2023 | 3rd | 20th | 35.6% |
2024 | 1st | 12th | 32.4% |
2025 | 3rd | 16th | 35.9% |
Still, the Lions' offense has been very good this season. It just hasn't been historically elite again.
Injuries wreaked havoc again
Using FTN Fantasy's "Adjusted Games Lost" metric, the Lions had the most injured defense in the NFL last year, and the second-least injured offense held things together.
This year, the injuries have been on both sides. The defensive secondary is once again decimated, with Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw all currently on injured reserve, and D.J. Reed missed nearly two months. Defensive end Marcus Davenport missed more than two months. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill didn't debut until late October as he recovered from last season's torn ACL. On offense, tight end Sam LaPorta missed about half of the season.
Overall, through 16 weeks, only the Arizona Cardinals had more total weeks missed to due injury, per Spotrac.
Injuries happen. That they have happened to this extent in consecutive seasons is truly unfortunate for such a talented team.
Fourth-down aggression, tiny margins didn't go Detroit's way
Campbell is one of the NFL's most aggressive coaches, and in many instances across 2023 and 2024, that aggression worked in his favor. But after being seventh in fourth-down conversion rate last year, Detroit is 20th this season through 16 weeks.
The Lions are also just 2-5 in one-possession games this season after going 7-2 in those games in 2024. In an NFL where over half of the games are decided by one possession, that can be chalked up to some regression luck-wise and some regression from the team. But there were some cruel closes calls -- the controversial, 1-yard-away loss to the Steelers comes to mind -- that also cost Detroit.
What's next? Detroit's financial stressors, needs
OverTheCap projects the Lions to be about $10 million in the red when it comes to 2026 effective cap space, one of the worst numbers in the league. That estimation will certainly change: A renegotiation of Goff's contract -- he's currently slated to count $55 million against the cap -- is in store, as are some other book-keeping items.
There are significant decisions to be made along the offensive line with Glasgow and left tackle Taylor Decker. If they depart, of course, they need to be replaced, whether with in-house options or outside additions.
Those aren't the only tough ones. Defensive tackle D.J. Reader and linebacker Alex Anzalone are slated to be free agents. Same with Kalif Raymond, Amik Robertson, Al-Quadin Muhammad and others players who aren't the biggest names but have been integral ones in Detroit's recent success. Detroit can't (and won't) pay all of them.
Before looking to potential outside help, the Lions will need to self-scout. What's working -- and what isn't working -- along the offensive line? Is 2025 first-round pick Tyleik Williams ready for a bigger role? What does the secondary look like when healthy -- and how healthy can it be? Rakestraw, a 2024 second-round pick, missed half of 2024 and all of 2025. Branch's late-season Achilles tear may mean he's not ready for the start of 2026. Is Anzalone worth bringing back, and if not, is there a suitable replacement for the defensive captain?
Detroit has shown an impressive penchant for drafting and developing. All five of the Lions' 2025 Pro Bowlers (Aidan Hutchinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell and Jack Campbell) were Detroit draft picks from 2021-23.
The last two classes haven't provided such big hits yet, but that doesn't mean they can't or won't next year. Players such as Arnold, Rakestraw, Williams, Tate Ratledge and Isaac TeSlaa will be determining factors on if the Lions' build will continue or stagnate.
The Lions' main needs this offseason figure to be ...
- Offensive line (potentially interior and left guard)
- Pass rusher opposite Hutchinson
- Defensive back (cornerback and safety)
The Lions own their first- and second-round picks. They do not currently have a third-round pick due to their massive move up in April to draft TeSlaa.
Verdict: The window isn't closed
Is the Lions' championship window as open as it was entering this season or last season? No. That's the simple true following a postseason-less campaign.
But is it closed completely? Absolutely not. There is still too much talent on the roster, and many of those standouts are in their prime or yet to enter it. In a year with a ton of turnover along the offensive line, a ton of defensive injuries and a ton of close losses, Detroit had the NFL's seventh-best point differential in the NFL through 16 weeks and ranked third in DVOA, an FTN metric that adjusts for strength of opponent. A play or two here or there, and this article doesn't exist.
The Lions still have a lot to address. Offensive coordinator will be a crucial hire. Drafting can run hot and cold, and if Detroit has indeed hit a cold patch the past few years, that hurts. Still, Campbell's coaching, the culture he has instilled and the Lions' ability to identify and develop talent gives them a very strong baseline. Detroit is built to last.
