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Two division-champion hopefuls from opposing conferences face off this Saturday, as the Detroit Lions host the Denver Broncos. These are two teams somewhat trending in opposing directions, as the Lions have lost two of their last three matchups, while the Broncos have rebounded from a 1-5 start to get to 7-6. 

If the season ended today, the Broncos would be on the outside looking in, but they hold the same record as two of the three current AFC wild cards. Following their 24-7 win over the rival Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos are now just one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. As for the Lions, there are 16 different ways they can clinch a playoff berth this week, but they need to tie the Broncos at the very least. 

The strengths of these two teams reside on opposite sides of the ball. When the Lions are clicking, they have one of the best offenses in the league. Whether it's their two stellar running backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, or the pass catchers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams, Detroit can strike from anywhere. As for the Broncos, it's Vance Joseph's defense that has sparked this team through the back half of their schedule. 

Below, we will break down this matchup, but first, here's how to watch this special Week 15 showdown. 

How to watch

Date: Saturday, Dec. 16 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fubo (try for free)  
Follow: CBS Sports App 
Odds: Lions -4.5, O/U 47.5 (Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus)

Head-to-head

The Broncos lead the all-time series 9-5 and have won the last three meetings. Each of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by double digits. 

This will be the first meeting between Russell Wilson and Jared Goff on their new teams. They faced off when Wilson was with the Seattle Seahawks and Goff with the Los Angeles Rams. Goff leads the all-time series vs. Wilson 5-4. Their last meeting came in Week 16 of 2020, when the Rams won 20-9. 

Preview

The Lions are favored by four points in this matchup, and are 1-1 vs. teams with a winning record this season compared to 8-3 vs. everyone else. Put succinctly, this matchup comes down to the Lions offense vs. the Broncos defense. 

You can't win games if your offense turns over the football, and that's exactly what Goff has been doing as of late. Goff has the most turnovers in the NFL since Week 11 with nine. The Broncos lead the league in turnover differential at +11, and are second in points allowed per game (15.6) since Week 7. Joseph's unit has been incredible when it comes to forcing turnovers, but the challenge lies in covering all of Detroit's weapons. Montgomery and Gibbs are an elite one-two punch, and Gibbs is a player with home run-hitting speed. St. Brown is one of just six players in the NFL this season with 85+ receptions and 1,000+ receiving yards, and LaPorta ranks fourth in receiving yards among tight ends in his very first NFL season. Getting off the field on third downs and forcing turnovers is key for Denver. 

While Russ has played much better football in 2023 compared to 2022, his Broncos offense is not considered to be one of the best in the league. Denver averages 300.8 yards of total offense per game (No. 24 in the NFL), while Wilson averages just 200.7 passing yards per game (No. 23). However, Wilson has thrown 23 touchdowns compared to just eight interceptions, and has been clutch in the fourth quarter. He's thrown nine touchdowns in fourth quarters this season, which are the most of any player in the NFL. If the Lions allow the Broncos to hang around, much like they did with the New Orleans Saints a couple weeks ago, it could spell trouble for Detroit. 

Gambling notes

DEN: 5-7-1 ATS, Under is 8-5
DET: 8-5 ATS, Over is 8-5

  • The Under for the Broncos has hit in seven out of the last eight games.
  • The Broncos are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games since starting the season 1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS.
  • The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-divisional games as a favorite, and 16-7 ATS at home under head coach Dan Campbell. That ranks second-best in the NFL during that span.

Prediction

If you were curious, the Lions haven't covered the spread since Oct. 30! They pushed against the Chargers, scraped by the Chicago Bears the following week, were upset by Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, almost blew a 21-0 lead to the Saints two weeks ago and then of course were upset by the Bears this past Sunday. However, I think the Lions can rebound this week.

In the battle of Detroit's offense vs. Denver's defense, I'm taking the former. 

Score: Lions 24-18

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 15.