Matthew Stafford's MVP pursuit: Rams QB is just three games away from locking up Hall of Fame status
The only missing piece of Stafford's HOF resume is very much in reach
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5 min read
Matthew Stafford is three games away from locking up an induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. His enshrinement may not come until something like 2033, but what he does on Thursday in Seattle, and in the Rams' final two games against the Falcons and Cardinals, will carry a lot of weight.
That's because Stafford is chasing his first NFL MVP award, the only missing piece of his Hall of Fame resume. He's currently the MVP favorite (-300) at DraftKings, followed by Drake Maye (+425) and Josh Allen (+550).
It's definitely Stafford's award to lose. Maye is authoring one of the best year-two seasons by a quarterback ever, but his inability to hold onto a 21-point lead at home against Josh Allen and the Bills probably cost him the award. Allen is putting together another MVP-caliber season, but he might not win his division and November losses in Miami and Houston were costly.
Stafford has a bulletproof case right now. He leads the NFL in advanced stats like EPA per play (0.24) and success rate (54.0%). He also leads the league in touchdown passes (37), TD-INT ratio (7.4), passer rating (112.2), touchdown rate (7.9%) and interception rate (1.1%).
Matthew Stafford ranks this season (minimum 10 starts)
EPA per play | 0.24 | 1st |
Success rate | 54.0% | 1st |
Pass TD | 37 | 1st |
TD-INT ratio | 7.4 | 1st |
Passer rating | 112.2 | 1st |
TD pct | 7.9% | 1st |
INT pct | 1.1% | 1st |
Pass yards | 3,722 | 2nd |
Another thing that will tug at voters' heartstrings… the Rams are poised to be the NFC's top seed. If you have the best season on the best team, chances are you are going to win MVP. Eight quarterbacks have thrown 40 touchdown passes in a season for a team that earned the top seed in the conference. All eight won the NFL MVP that season.
Stafford is three away from 40 and the Rams control their own destiny in the NFC. The final hurdle is beating the Seahawks in Seattle on Thursday. That won't be an easy task by any means, especially without Davante Adams, so Stafford has his work cut out for him. If he can win that game and beat the Falcons and Cardinals, then I can't see a way he doesn't win MVP.
40 TD passes in a season with top playoff seed in conference
| Won MVP? | |
|---|---|
2022 Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
2020 Aaron Rodgers | Yes |
2018 Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
2013 Peyton Manning | Yes |
2011 Aaron Rodgers | Yes |
2007 Tom Brady | Yes |
1999 Kurt Warner | Yes |
1984 Dan Marino | Yes |
2025 NFL MVP odds, scenarios: How Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye or Josh Allen can take home the trophy
Jared Dubin
Only missing piece of Hall of Fame resume
So why does an NFL MVP award make Stafford a lock for the Pro Football Hall of Fame? History shows that getting a gold jacket is about a quarterback's trophy case. Stafford already won a Super Bowl in the 2021 season with the Rams, so an MVP would make him the 15th quarterback in NFL history with an MVP award and a Super Bowl title.
Ten of the 14 are already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Three of the other four are locks (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes) and the only one that isn't is Joe Theismann, whose gruesome leg injury in 1985 ended his career. Theismann was also nowhere near where Stafford is on the NFL all-time passing leaderboards, either. He was 30th in touchdown passes when he retired. Stafford is in the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns.
Quarterbacks with NFL MVP and Super Bowl title
| In Pro Football Hall of Fame? | |
|---|---|
Joe Montana | Yes |
Terry Bradshaw | Yes |
Bart Starr | Yes |
John Elway | Yes |
Peyton Manning | Yes |
Johnny Unitas | Yes |
Ken Stabler | Yes |
Steve Young | Yes |
Brett Favre | Yes |
Kurt Warner | Yes |
Tom Brady | Not eligible yet |
Aaron Rodgers | Not eligible yet |
Patrick Mahomes | Not eligible yet |
Joe Theismann | No |
The stock on Stafford's Hall of Fame case has been rising ever since he won the Super Bowl four years ago and now he's in a position to put himself over the top with last year's finish and this year's MVP campaign.
In the next few years, there's going to be a few really interesting Hall of Fame cases among quarterbacks who put up monster numbers in the 2000s. How they will be judged is difficult to say. Many of them show up on the top 10 of all-time passing leaderboards, but you can chalk that up to the NFL's transition to a passing league in the 2000s. The trophy case is what will stand out. Stafford would be the only player in this group with both an MVP and a Super Bowl ring.
Detractors can point out that Philip Rivers never made a Super Bowl, or that Eli Manning was never consistently one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Russell Wilson's career went off a cliff in the past five years, and Matt Ryan was ever so close to being in the company Stafford is in. Fair or not, I can see those things being held against them. I didn't include Ben Roethlisberger here because he should be a lock. He has two rings like Eli Manning, but was better than Manning in all counting and efficiency stats by a decent margin.
Notable 2000s quarterbacks on the Hall of Fame bubble
| MVP | Titles | Pass TD | Pass Yards | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Matthew Stafford | 0 | 1 | 414 | 63,531 |
Philip Rivers | 0 | 0 | 422 | 63,560 |
Eli Manning | 0 | 2 | 366 | 57,023 |
Russell Wilson | 0 | 1 | 353 | 46,966 |
Matt Ryan | 1 | 0 | 381 | 62,792 |
1 | 0 | 194 | 32,382 |
Second act for the ages
I'm not sure what the Hall of Fame case would be against Stafford if he wins this MVP award. He's proved in five seasons with the Rams what he could have done in a decade plus with Detroit if he didn't have one of the worst supporting casts in the league (minus Calvin Johnson). He obviously never won a playoff game with the Lions and wasn't usually among the league's best quarterbacks on the stat sheet, but we can almost take that with a grain of salt now.
His second act with the Rams has a chance to be that good. Check out these accolades he's chasing
- Stafford can be the first quarterback all-time to win his first MVP award and first Super Bowl title, both at age 34 or older.
- Stafford can be the fourth quarterback to win an NFL MVP and Super Bowl after changing teams (Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Steve Young)
- Stafford can be the oldest quarterback to win his first NFL MVP (37)
- Stafford can be the oldest quarterback to lead the NFL in Pass TD for the first time (37)
- Stafford can become the third player with three seasons with 40+ touchdown passes (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers)
It's crazy to think that five years ago, Stafford was thought of as a compiler with a rocket arm that had never won a playoff game.
Now, with all that talent and the right pieces around him, he's on the cusp of a trophy case that is very Hall of Fame worthy. Plus, who knows what else he can add to his trophy case? The Rams are currently Super Bowl favorites, have the best all-around team in the NFL, and won't have to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
A win on Thursday could go a long way toward the Rams getting a one seed, which would bring Stafford a step closer to an MVP, maybe even another ring, and ultimately, football immortality in Canton, Ohio.
