Which NFC team has the edge for the No. 1 seed? Seahawks lead the way, but six teams have a real shot
With three weeks left, the race for the NFC's top seed remains wide open
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3 min read
The 2025 NFL season is one of the more top-heavy seasons in recent years. This season has 19 of the league's 32 teams still in Super Bowl contention, the most with three weeks to play since 2005 (18 teams), per CBS Sports Research.
Nine teams are alive in the NFC, and six of them have a legitimate shot at the conference's top seed and sole first-round bye.
Let's go through the standings and remaining schedules of the top NFC contenders with three weeks to go. Just 1.5 games separate the current No. 1 seed and the current No. 6 seed in the conference. It doesn't get much more competitive than that.
NFC standings and odds projections
| Record | Conference Record | Odds to win NFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
12-3 | 7-3 | +250 | |
10-4 | 6-3 | +1400 | |
9-5 | 7-3 | +550 | |
7-7 | 5-5 | +2000 | |
11-4 | 6-4 | +230 | |
10-4 | 8-2 | +950 | |
9-4-1 | 7-2-1 | +750 | |
8-6 | 5-5 | +1800 | |
7-7 | 5-4 | +10000 |
All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Seahawks passed the Rams on Thursday for the best record in the conference with an epic come-from-behind victory, but the Rams interestingly remain ahead in the conference-winning odds at DraftKings. Just behind those two teams are the reigning Super Bowl LIX champion Eagles, thanks to their pedigree and remaining schedule, which we'll get to in a moment.
The Packers have the fourth-best odds despite being the current No. 7 because they face the Bears in Week 16 and have already beaten them this season. The victor in that matchup will enter Week 17 at the NFC's No. 2 seed and have control atop the NFC North division standings.
After four consecutive wins, the San Francisco 49ers are now up to the fifth-best odds as the No. 6 seed. The Bears have the sixth-best odds given that they could drop down to the No. 7 seed with a loss on Saturday to the Packers, a team they've already lost to this season.
Then, there's the Detroit Lions (+1800) and the two NFC South division contenders -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2000) and the Carolina Panthers (+10000) -- bringing up the rear.
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Tyler Sullivan
Remaining schedule for NFC contenders
| Game | Rams | Bears | Eagles | Buccaneers | Seahawks | 49ers | Packers | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 16 | lost to Seahawks | vs. Packers (9-4-1) | at Commanders (4-10) | at Panthers (7-7) | beat Rams | at Colts (8-6) | at Bears (10-4) | vs. Steelers (8-6) | vs. Buccaneers (7-7) |
Week 17 | at Falcons (5-9) | at 49ers (10-4) | at Bills (10-4) | at Dolphins (6-8) | at Panthers (7-7) | vs. Bears (10-4) | vs. Ravens (7-7) | at Vikings (6-8) | at Seahawks (11-3) |
Week 18 | at Cardinals (3-11) | vs. Lions (8-6) | vs. Commanders (4-10) | vs. Panthers (7-7) | at 49ers (10-4) | vs. Seahawks (11-3) | at Vikings (6-8) | at Bears (10-4) | at Buccaneers (7-7) |
Easiest remaining strength of schedule by opponent winning percentage
- Rams --> .286
- Eagles --> .429
- Buccaneers --> .476
- Packers --> .548
- Lions --> .571
- Panthers --> .605
- Seahawks --> .607
- Bears --> .655
- 49ers --> .698
Seattle has the easiest path to the No. 1 seed now. All the Seahawks have to do is defeat the Panthers and 49ers in their next two games. The Rams are now a game behind the Seahawks and need their division rivals to slip up to get back into the top spot, but they also can't have the 49ers win each of their remaining three games, or else San Francisco would jump into the No. 1 seed. The Niners, though, have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL.
Now that Seattle has upset the Rams, the Packers and Bears also each have a shot at climbing up to the top seed. The winner of that game this Saturday will have the inside track at potentially passing one or all of the NFC West teams in the race for the No. 1 spot. The Eagles are further behind each of these teams and need a whole lot of help if they're going to surpass all the teams in front of them.
