You've heard of the phrase, "Put your money where your mouth is," right?

Consider it done.

I went to Las Vegas last weekend to sign up for the Westgate SuperContest as I do every year, trying to win over $1 million by out-picking thousands of competitors in the biggest NFL gambling competition in the world. I cashed in 2015 for the first time in three years, then did it again with an 18th place finish in 2017. Even though 2018 wasn't my best season, I still managed to finish in the top 30 percent of entrants in the SuperContest, a feat I've managed in each of the last four years:

YearRecordWin %PointsRankTotalField %
201844-37-454.3%469233,12329.6%
201752-29-464.2%54182,7480.7%
201642-38-552.5%44.55251,85428.3%
201551-32-261.4%52391,7272.3%

You'll be able to get all five of my SuperContest picks each week, as well as my reasoning behind each, every Saturday during the season at SportsLine. You can get those SuperContest plays and all my picks, as well as picks from more experts in a plethora of sports along with analysis, projections, DFS strategy and more by heading over to SportsLine and using promo code WHITE to sign up for your first month for $1.

But before we turn our focus to Week 1 next week, let's dive into my favorite futures bets of the season. The 13 plays below are ones I made myself while in Vegas, ranging from win totals to odds to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl to player props and MVP value picks.

I dove into these picks further with my buddy Will Brinson on Wednesday's edition of the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Play or wherever you get your podcasts) along with my Week 1 power ratings and more. Make sure you give it a listen.

Here we go.

Win totals

Browns Under 9 -110
Raiders Under 6 -120
Cardinals Under 5 +105

When it comes to win totals, I only look to the under. Why? Because the board is stacked in a way each and every year where there are more wins than the maximum of 256 possible in an NFL season. And that max of 256 has been hit just once in the last three years as ties have become more prevalent.

This year, even with the Westgate knocking two off the Colts' win total following Andrew Luck's retirement, we're still seeing a total of 258 wins on the board as of Tuesday evening. In addition, 19 teams are juiced to the over (meaning you have to lay more than -110 to bet the over), while just eight teams are juiced to the under, with five others -110 on each side of the line. Profitability is obviously much easier if you're betting the under on a team, so I generally look to play unders on my negative predictions and other types of futures bets on my positive predictions.

Here, I think there are too many question marks with the Browns to anticipate the long-disappointing franchise to get to double-digit wins, from how Freddie Kitchens will do with head coaching and game management responsibilities, to how the offensive line will perform, to whether the talent on the defensive side comes together without Gregg Williams in tow. The Raiders have a brutal travel schedule, a coach that still hasn't proven he's fit for this modern era of football and long-term questions at quarterback with Derek Carr's contract escapable after this year and a promising 2020 class on the horizon. The Cardinals have all the uncertainty of the Browns but with less talent at probably every position, an unproven rookie at quarterback and a coach that just got fired from Texas Tech.

Team bets

Bears to miss playoffs +100
Ravens to make playoffs +170
Colts to win AFC South +450
Lions to win NFC North +1000
Eagles to win Super Bowl +1500

The over on the Bears win total has jumped since I placed my bet down; otherwise they would have featured in the previous section. But I feel like nine wins isn't going to land a playoff spot in the NFC, so while landing exactly on nine wins would be a push on their win total, I can still cash that bet here at even money.

Then we come to my positive predictions. Of the four, the Ravens is one I truly think will happen -- I believe the consensus has written off the offense after one bad playoff game, but Lamar Jackson has had a chance to grow over the offseason, the coaching staff is one of the NFL's elite, and the personnel side should get the benefit of the doubt after seeing several key pieces leave in the offseason because it has managed to create quality starters time and time again at value prices in the free-agent market and draft. We're going to get at least one wild card from the AFC North and possibly even two, and while I like the value on the Ravens to win the division at +400 as well, taking them to essentially be a top-two team in the division at +170 is too good to pass up.

When the Luck news broke, I was furiously checking and rechecking the books in Vegas to see where they would reopen the Colts win total and other futures odds. When I saw the MGM deal +450 on the division, I had to jump on it. This roster is far superior to the one that won four games with Jacoby Brissett in 2017, and he's a better player than the second-year guy with 55 career attempts who had to take over the offense 10 days after joining the team that year. The AFC South is a weaker division overall, one where I expect only one team to have a winning record. Why can't it be Indy?

Many projection systems really like the Lions this year, from the SportsLine Projection Model to Football Outsiders' DVOA and more. And I can see it -- the defensive line is stacked and the secondary features one of the league's best corners in Darius Slay, while the offense should be tougher to defend now that it shouldn't be as predictable. There's a worst-to-first division winner every year, and while the Jaguars are obviously the most logical candidate with the Luck retirement, I'd put the Lions second.

Then we have the Eagles. They won the Super Bowl two years ago with their backup quarterback, and the team might be even deeper this year, save for at that one crucial position. If Carson Wentz can make it through a full season healthy, the Eagles have as good a chance as anyone of winning the whole thing, but for some reason they aren't being priced like one of the favorites. I think that's a mistake.

Player props

Jameis Winston leads NFL in passing yards +1200
Dalvin Cook leads NFL in rushing yards +2000
Tyler Lockett leads NFL in receiving yards +7500
Jimmy Garoppolo to win MVP +5000
Sam Darnold to win MVP +8000

I'm not 100 percent sold on Winston, but he certainly is under pressure to prove he's a franchise quarterback before reaching free agency (or being hit with the franchise tag). His traits are also a good fit for Bruce Arians' system, and he has plenty of weapons as well as a questionable defense that will cause the Bucs to constantly be in keep-up mode. Even if the Bucs aren't a playoff team, Winston can challenge for the passing yards crown if he plays 16 games.

Cook to win the rushing title is my favorite player bet of the year. We know Vikings coach Mike Zimmer wants to run the ball more; that's why the team changed offensive coordinators at the end of last year. Cook doesn't have a backup of the quality of Latavius Murray, so if he's healthy I expect the offense to lean on his talent in close games. And a top-tier defense should ensure that virtually every game stays close.

Lockett is more of a shot-in-the-dark than anything. He hasn't been a high-volume player to date, but Doug Baldwin's targets have to go somewhere, and Jaron Brown's 100 catches in six seasons represent the most experience at receiver on this offense outside of Lockett, who caught 57 of his 70 targets for 965 yards in 2018. If the Seahawks throw more than 427 times (last in the NFL in 2018), I don't think it's crazy to expect Lockett to double his target number this year. That's not going to come with double the yardage, but even just 1.5 times last year's yardage total would have put him in the top five. There's a reason we're getting 75-to-1 here, but there's also a far better chance Lockett is in the mix late in the season than these odds imply.

As for my MVP bets, I don't have nearly the confidence in either that I did in Patrick Mahomes at this time last year, but I can see the narrative on either quarterback if their teams win just a few more games than expected. Garoppolo has produced in basically every one of his starts except a tough 2018 opener in Minnesota, so if he can stay healthy and play 16 games in Kyle Shanahan's system, he should have the stats to make him an intriguing candidate if the 49ers steal the NFC West. Darnold is primed to make a Year 2 leap with better talent at the skill positions and on the offensive line, as well as an offensive-minded head coach in Adam Gase. If the Jets make a playoff run, I expect Darnold to get some MVP buzz, so at 80-to-1 I'm willing to play the value.

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