default-cbs-image

The Green Bay Packers are still holding out hope that Aaron Rodgers can return from a collarbone injury and save their season by playing ahead of schedule and late in the year. If that sounds familiar, it should: Rodgers did just that in 2013, suffering a November injury that held him out until Week 17, when he came back to beat the Bears and push the Packers into the playoffs at 8-7-1.

Rodgers was spotted winging 50-yard passes before the Steelers game Sunday night, a tight matchup the Packers barely lost. Unfortunately for the Packers, Rodgers isn't eligible to return for three more weeks. 

But there is good news on this Friday: Rodgers is expected back at practice on Saturday, according to coach Mike McCarthy. 

"We're looking tomorrow to potentially practice him in a trial return," McCarthy said Friday morning per Rob Demovsky of ESPN. "That's the outlook. We'll determine that tomorrow after his work today."

Quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt said Rodgers is "probably ahead of the curve a little bit" and said the quarterback is "doing well." Clay Matthews thinks the Packers should have kept Rodgers off IR so they could bring him back sooner. 

Regardless, it seems like the earliest Rodgers could be ready to play would be Week 14 against the Browns -- that's a game the Packers should win regardless of who's at quarterback. Rodgers won't be actually eligible, because of the IR designation, until the Week 15 game against the Panthers on Dec. 17. 

Can the Packers still make a playoff run, even after the debilitating loss to the Steelers in primetime last week? Absolutely. Here's the paths they can take to make the playoffs. 

Win the NFC North

This is a highly unlikely scenario, but it's still on the table. 

Team (EOY)

Week 13

Week 14

Week 15

Week 16

Week 17

Vikings (10-6)

Lose @ Falcons

Lose @ Panthers

Win vs. Bengals

Lose @ Packers

Lose vs. Bears

Lions (7-9)

Lose @ Ravens

Win vs. Bucs

Lose vs. Bears

Lose @ Bengals

Lose vs. Packers

Packers (10-6)

Win vs. Bucs

Win @ Browns

Win @ Panthers

Win vs. Vikings

Win @ Lions

Bears (7-9)

Win vs. 49ers

Lose @ Bengals

Win @ Lions

Win vs. Browns

Win @ Vikings

What's important to note here is that the Packers do not have a ton of wiggle room here. The need the Vikings to drop their NFC matchups -- flipping the Bears and Bengals games would not get them in. Flipping the Bengals and Falcons or Bengals and Panthers would, but we're playing the odds here. Long story short is the Packers, thanks to losing to the Steelers, are going to need the Vikings to collapse and are going to need to get a lot of help from the Bears in Week 17. 

And they need the Lions to simultaneously collapse as well, since Detroit could easily throw a wrench in this whole thing by winning a couple of games. 

It's the longest of longshots. The Packers are already squatting on less than a one percent chance of this happening. It could vanish as soon as this weekend with a Vikings win or a Packers loss.

Make it as a wild card

This is a much more likely scenario, and even this is a longshot. The Falcons (7-4) and Panthers (8-3) are the current wild card teams and are going to get to nine wins minimum. We have to assume that. Ten is more likely. The Packers have to force their way into a tie situation -- again, this is why the loss to the Steelers was so huge. 6-5 and they're right in this thing; 5-6 means they likely have to win out. 

Basically, they're looking for a runaway from the Saints and Vikings in their respective divisions, with those teams set to play against the wild-card teams multiple times over the next few weeks. 

The Vikings get the Falcons once and the Saints get them twice. The Saints and Vikings both get the Panthers once. 

Week 13: The Saints need to beat the Panthers, the Vikings need to beat the Falcons and the Packers need to beat the Buccaneers. The Eagles also need to beat the Seahawks, who are still very much in the hunt. The Ravens need to beat the Lions. The Cowboys already won.

Week 14: The Saints need to beat the Falcons, the Vikings need to beat the Panthers and the Packers need to beat the Browns. The Cowboys probably beat the Giants, and the Seahawks play at Jacksonville (that's a loss here). We're giving the Lions a win over the Bucs.

*Note: Aaron Rodgers would return after Week 14.

Week 15: The Saints play the Jets (win) and the Lions play the Bears (win). The Seahawks get the Rams at home (we'll lean win). The Falcons get the Bucs (win), and the Cowboys are at the Raiders (loss). Remember, these are just projections. Obviously the Packers need to beat the Panthers in Charlotte. The Vikings beat the Bengals at home. 

Week 16: Obviously the Packers need to beat the Vikings here. And obviously the Saints need to beat the Falcons. The Cowboys beat the Seahawks in these projections while the Panthers beat the Buccaneers at home.

*Worth noting: Right now after these Week 16 games, the Packers are already in the playoffs at 9-6 thanks to the teams ahead of them falling back. In fact, they're the No. 5 seed thanks to beating Carolina straight up.

Week 17: The Packers, again, have to win in Detroit. The Seahawks can beat the Cardinals in this scenario. The Panthers, in this scenario, would be playing for the No. 6 seed -- if they beat Atlanta they would get it, while the Seahawks or Cowboys could snare it depending on what happens in the Cowboys-Eagles game.

There's a lot of wiggle room here for the Packers, because the Falcons can beat the Saints in Week 16 and then beat the Panthers in Week 17 and the Packers still get in as the No. 6 seed, with the Falcons securing the No. 5 seed.

There's even a path for the Packers to make the playoffs at 9-7 but at this point that is asking for a lot of help.

It's all pretty complex and confusing, but that's just the nature of the NFL postseason race. Fortunately for the Packers, they're still very much alive. All they need to do is win. 

Unfortunately for them, they'll have to win twice without Aaron Rodgers around. They couldn't ask for a better schedule, and if Rodgers comes back and they're still in the hunt, don't ever rule out Green Bay running the table. We saw it happen last year.