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The AFC playoff picture could most accurately be describe as an absolutely mess. The New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers are all but assured playoff spots and first-round byes with their matching 9-2 records, but beyond that, it's difficult to discern who will get in the field and where they'll be seeded. 

Right now, it appears as though there are eight candidates for the remaining four playoff spots -- two from the AFC South (Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans), three from the AFC West (Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Oakland Raiders), two from the AFC North (Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals), and one from the AFC East (Buffalo Bills). All eight of those teams have records of 7-4 (Titans, Jaguars), 6-5 (Chiefs, Ravens, Bills), or 5-6 (Bengals, Chargers, Raiders). 

Here's how things stand as of this writing: 

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CBSSports.com

Two of the teams that eventually get to the postseason will be the winners of the West and South, which means the Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders have more than one path to the dance than do the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals. The other two spots are completely up for grabs, though.

SportsLine's Stephen Oh ran some numbers for us, showing which of those eight teams have the best chance of winning their division and making the playoffs, as well as which teams have the best chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl -- or even be crowned champions. 

AFCWINSDIVPLAYOFFAFCSB
Jacksonville Jaguars10.353.7%97.5%8.7%3.7%
Kansas City Chiefs9.576.9%81.8%7.1%3.2%
Tennessee Titans9.746.3%88.0%3.6%1.2%
Baltimore Ravens9.10.8%59.1%2.2%0.8%
Buffalo Bills8.51.5%32.1%1.2%0.4%
Los Angeles Chargers7.916.5%20.8%1.0%0.3%
Cincinnati Bengals7.40.0%9.0%0.3%0.1%
Oakland Raiders7.26.6%8.4%0.4%0.1%

With these teams only playing each other a combined five times over the final five weeks of the season (Chiefs vs. Raiders, Chiefs vs. Chargers, Ravens vs. Bengals, Titans vs. Jaguars, and Raiders vs, Chargers), it's those games that will go a long way toward determining which of them makes it and which doesn't. A few of those games could have a massive leverage effect on who gets in. Let's start with the three AFC West matchups.

CHIEFS-RAIDERS

KC

OAK

Playoffs

81.8%

8.4%

If KC Wins

90.1%

2.0%

If OAK Wins

56.0%

21.5%

CHIEFS-CHARGERS

KC

LAC

Playoffs

81.8%

20.8%

If KC Wins

92.5%

6.8%

If LAC Wins

55.0%

54.0%

CHARGERS-RAIDERS

LAC

OAK

Playoffs

20.8%

8.4%

If LAC Wins

31.5%

2.2%

If OAK Wins

6.8%

18.2%

As you can see, Kansas City gets a couple chances to all but wrap up its divisional crown or wild-card berth, while the Chargers can do themselves a bunch of favors with a win over the Raiders and, especially, a win over the Chiefs. The difference between a win and a loss in Week 15 represents a 47.2 percentage-point bump in their shot of making the playoffs. Neither divisional game is necessarily more important than the other for the Raiders or Chiefs, with their chances looking relatively similar with a win or a loss in both. 

The AFC South matchup in the final week of the season contains far more playoff leverage for the Titans than it does for the Jags, but both teams are considered likely to get into the dance given their matching 7-4 records. 

TITANS-JAGUARS

TEN

JAC

Playoffs

88.0%

97.5%

If TEN Wins

95.8%

90.5%

if JAC Wins

73.9%

99.9%

The Ravens don't have to worry about this one for a while, but a loss to the Bengals would be disastrous for their chances of making the playoffs. The difference between a win and a loss in that game would cause a 43.1 percentage point difference in their chances of getting in. 

RAVENS-BENGALS

BAL

CIN

Playoffs

59.1%

9.0%

If BAL Wins

75.2%

1.3%

If CIN Wins

32.1%

23.9%

But it's not just the divisional games that will play a role. Already this coming weekend, there are a few inter-division games that could either springboard some of these contenders to far better playoff chances, or knock them out of the race entirely. 

  • The Bills currently have a 32 percent chance of getting to the playoffs. If they lose to the Patriots this weekend, their chances drop to only 28 percent. That's not a huge dip, but that's mostly because a loss to the Pats is expected and thus baked into their numbers already. (They play the Patriots again later this season, and a likely loss in that game is baked in as well. Assuming losses in both games, the Bills would likely have to sweep the Colts and Dolphins, plus get help elsewhere, in order to make the field.) If the Bills manage to score an upset, however, their chances of getting into the postseason skyrocket to 58 percent. 
  • This week's game against the Steelers will go a long way toward determining the Bengals' playoff fate. They stand just a 9 percent chance of getting in at this moment, but a loss cuts their chances by two-thirds all the way down to 3 percent. A win against the likely AFC North champions doubles the Bengals' shot at getting in to 18 percent. The Bengals have tough games against the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens left on the schedule, too, and coupled with their 5-6 record, that's why they're considered such longshots. 
  • The Chargers, currently at 21 percent, jump to only 23 percent with a win over the lowly Browns, but a surprise loss would cut their odds to just 9 percent. The Bolts will get several chances to help themselves with games against the Browns, Jets, Chiefs, and Raiders left on the schedule. Winning the "easy" games and beating their divisional opponents would turn the Chargers from an outside candidate to make the playoffs into a probable favorite. 

With just five weeks to go and 40 total games to be played for these eight teams, things could change a whole lot from week to week. That'll start happening this Sunday, but the final week of the season will likely see at least a couple of these spots up for grabs, and with six of these teams playing each other, it's all but guaranteed to be quite eventful.