default-cbs-image

It's not easy to miss the playoffs after a 5-0 start, but it's starting to look like the Kansas City Chiefs are going to do it. At least according to our newest playoff projection.

As we mentioned last week, with the NFL season heading down the stretch, we'll be publishing playoff projections every Wednesday so we can argue with you about who's going to make the playoffs and who's not.

With the Chiefs in the middle of a historic free fall that no team in NFL history has ever recovered from, we're now projecting a new team to win the AFC West. Spoiler alert: It's not the Broncos. To find out if it's the Chargers or Raiders, you'll have to read our projection below. 

However, before we get to this week's projections, we have some bad news for fans in Cleveland, New York and San Francisco: As of Sunday, the Browns, Giants and 49ers have been eliminated from postseason, which means if you guys want to dip out of here and go read our 2018 mock drafts instead, I won't be offended. 

As for this week's playoff projection, the biggest change from last week -- besides the fact that we've given up on the Chiefs -- is that we're no longer projecting that the Lions backdoor their way into the playoffs. 

So who will be taking their spot?

Let's get to this week's playoff projection and find out. As always, included in these projections will be data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com.

Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, you'll want to click here to see Will Brinson's thorough breakdown of what the playoff picture looks like as we head into Week 13.

AFC Playoff Projection

(Team, projected record after 16 games, strength of schedule listed if in top-five easiest or hardest)

1. Patriots (14-2), AFC East champion: If Bill Belichick knew how our computer felt about him, he would probably smash it to pieces. Although we're projecting that the Patriots go unbeaten over the final five weeks of the season, the computer doesn't feel the same way. SportsLine is only giving the Patriots a 25 percent chance of winning out.  

Remaining schedule: At Buffalo, at Miami, at Pittsburgh, Buffalo, at N.Y. Jets (29-26 combined record)

2. Steelers (13-3), AFC North champion: If Mike Tomlin's recent interview with NBC is any indication, it seems pretty clear that he started game-planning for the Patriots as soon as the schedule came out in April. 

Tomlin is so zoned in on New England that it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Steelers stumble in one of their next two games. As long as they only stumble once though, they should still be in line to clinch the second seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with it. 

Remaining schedule: At Cincinnati, Baltimore, New England, at Houston, Cleveland (24-31 combined record)

3. Jaguars (11-5), AFC South champion: The idea of the Jaguars in the playoffs must sound just as weird to them as it does to us because that's the only way to explain the faceplant they pulled off in their 27-24 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday. As bad as the loss was, the Jags still play the fifth-easiest schedule down the stretch, which means that not even Blake Bortles should be able to torpedo their playoff chances. 

Remaining schedule: Indianapolis, Seattle, Houston, at San Francisco, at Tennessee (22-33 combined record, tied for fifth-easiest remaining schedule)

4. Chargers (10-6) AFC West champion: It's starting to look like the biggest benefactor of the Chiefs' midseason meltdown might end up being the Chargers. To win the AFC West, they're likely going to have to win out, but that actually seems possible thanks in large part to the fact that they're currently set to play the NFL's easiest schedule over the final five weeks. 

Remaining schedule: Cleveland, Washington, at Kansas City, at N.Y. Jets, Oakland (20-35 combined record, easiest remaining schedule).

5. Titans (10-6), wild card: In our projection, the Titans and Jaguars will both head into their Week 17 showdown with a 10-5 record and based on where we have the Titans, you can probably guess who we're predicting to win that game. The computer is split between the Titans and Jags. According to SportsLine, the Jags have a 53.7 percent chance of winning the division, while the Titans are being given a 46.3 percent chance. 

Remaining schedule: Houston, at Arizona, at San Francisco, L.A. Rams, Jacksonville (25-30 combined record).

6. Ravens (9-7), wild card: Besides the Chargers, the second-biggest winner of the Chiefs' midseason meltdown is the Ravens. In our projection, the Ravens would win a three-way tiebreaker over the Chiefs and the Bills at 9-7 based on having the best winning percentage in AFC games. If, for some reason, the three teams tied in conference winning percentage, the next tiebreaker would be best winning percentage in games with common opponents. If that doesn't fix things and the three teams roll through eight more tiebreakers, the NFL would eventually settle things by holding a coin toss. I've always been secretly hoping for a coin toss to decide a tiebreaker. Let's hope it happens. 

Remaining schedule: Detroit, at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, Indianapolis, Cincinnati (23-32 combined record).

Just missed

Chiefs (9-7): We're projecting the Chiefs out of the playoffs here because we don't want to pick against history. Since the NFL expanded to its current playoff format in 1990, there have only been three teams that have started 5-0 and then fallen to 6-5. In all three of those instances, the team missed the postseason. 

The Chiefs look absolutely lost and there's no reason to think they can get things turned around anytime soon. Of course, computers don't "think" -- they only compute -- which might be why our computer likes the Chiefs. According to SportsLine, the Chiefs have an 81.8 percent chance of making the postseason, which is higher than the Ravens (59.1 percent) and Bills (32.1 percent). As far as winning the AFC West, the computer really likes the Chiefs, giving them a 76.9 percent chance, which is higher than both the Chargers (16.5 percent) and Raiders (6.6. percent).  

Remaining schedule: At N.Y. Jets, Oakland, L.A. Chargers, Miami, at Denver (21-34 combined record, tied for third-easiest remaining schedule).

Bills (9-7): The biggest thing standing in the way of the Bills and a potential playoff berth is a 40-year-old man and coach who likes to wear hoodies. Over the final five weeks of the season, the Bills have to play the Patriots twice, which is basically the worst possible news for a team that's 3-24 in its past 27 games against New England. The Bills will also need to hope that the Chargers or Bengals don't end up with the same record as them because both of those teams hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo.  

Remaining schedule: New England, Indianapolis, Miami, at New England, at Miami (29-26 combined record).

NFC Playoff Projection

(Team, projected record after 16 games)

1. Eagles (14-2), NFC East champion: The Eagles could become the first team in the projection to actually clinch a playoff berth as soon as Thursday if the Cowboys lose to the Redskins. Of course, if that doesn't happen, the Eagles can still clinch a berth on Sunday with a win over the Seahawks. Even if the Eagles don't clinch a playoff berth this week, our computer says it's definitely going to happen. According to SportsLine, Philly has a 100 percent chance of making it, which basically means the computer doesn't think it's mathematically possible for the Eagles to falter so bad down the stretch that they miss the postseason.  

Remaining schedule: At Seattle, at L.A. Rams, at N.Y. Giants, Oakland, Dallas (27-28 combined record)

2. Vikings (13-3), NFC North champion: Although we're projecting the Vikings to win the NFC North, we could probably also consider them the NFC South champion if they beat the Falcons and Panthers over the next two weeks.  

Remaining schedule: At Atlanta, at Carolina, Cincinnati, at Green Bay, Chicago (28-27 combined record)

3. Rams (12-4), NFC West champion: The Rams' one-game lead in the NFC West might as well be a 10-game lead because the computer loves them to win the division. According to SportsLine, the Rams have a 68.5 percent chance of winning the NFC West while the Seahawks are only being given a 31.4 percent chance. If the Rams do win the division, we're projecting that the Seahawks will have a chance to get revenge on them in the wild-card round of the playoffs. 

Remaining schedule: At Arizona, Philadelphia, at Seattle, at Tennessee, San Francisco (30-25 combined record).

4. Saints (12-4), NFC South champion: The NFC South is starting to look like it's going to be a bloodbath down the stretch, which is probably a good thing for the Saints because they're in the best position as far as tiebreakers go. Heading into Week 13, the Saints are the only NFC South team unbeaten in division play, which is always a nice tiebreaker to have in your back pocket. 

Remaining schedule: Carolina, at Atlanta, N.Y. Jets, Atlanta, at Tampa Bay (30-25 combined record)

5. Falcons (11-5), wild card: The Falcons are getting hot at the right time, which is good news for the Falcons because if they weren't getting hot, we would probably project them to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. The Falcons have the most difficult schedule in the NFL over the final five weeks of the season, so it's kind of a big deal that they seem to be hitting their stride.   

Remaining schedule: Minnesota, New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, Carolina (37-18 combined record, hardest remaining schedule).

6. Seahawks (11-5), wild card: The Seahawks have never missed the playoffs since drafting Russell Wilson, which means it's almost a guarantee that he'll be able to muster just enough magic to carry Seattle to the playoffs this season. The biggest obstacle standing between the Seahawks and an 11-5 record is the next three weeks, when they have to face the Eagles, Jaguars and Rams. If Wilson is smart, he'll use his magic on the Eagles and Rams because the Seahawks will likely be able to beat the Jags without it. A 3-0 final score sounds about right for that game. 

Remaining schedule: Philadelphia, at Jacksonville, L.A. Rams, at Dallas, Arizona (35-20 combined record)

Just missed

Panthers (10-6): For the second straight week, the computer loves the Panthers and for the second straight week, we're still projecting them out of the playoffs. Although the computer is giving the Panthers the fifth-best postseason odds in the NFC -- behind Philly (100 percent), Minnesota (100 percent), the Rams (89.7 percent) and New Orleans (87.9 percent) -- we still think they're going to miss out on the playoffs with a Week 17 loss to Atlanta. 

Remaining schedule: At New Orleans, Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, at Atlanta (33-22 combined record, tied for fourth-hardest remaining schedule).

Lions (10-6): Lions fans, we have some bad news for you: The computer hates you. If you saw what Skynet did to humanity in "Terminator 2" that's what the SportsLine computer is doing to you. According to Sportsline, the Lions have just an 11.9 percent chance of making the postseason, which is far worse than the odds being given to other wild-card contenders like the Panthers (73.8 percent), Falcons (68.8 percent) and Seahawks (58.8 percent). 

Remaining schedule: At Baltimore, at Tampa Bay, Chicago, at Cincinnati, Green Bay (23-32 combined record)

The Aaron Rodgers factor: One thing that's impossible to account for in these projections is Aaron Rodgers. We have no idea if he's going to return this season. The Packers quarterback has said he'll return if it makes sense and you have to think that it will only make sense if the Packers are in playoff contention. 

For the Packers to stay in playoff contention, they'll need to beat the Buccaneers and Browns over the next two weeks, which definitely seems plausible. After that, Rodgers would be eligible to come off injured reserve and play in the Packers final three games of the season, which are against the Panthers, Vikings and Lions. Basically, a return by Rodgers could have a dramatic effect on the NFC playoff race. For now, we've got Green Bay finishing 7-9, but that could change quickly if it turns out Rodgers is definitely returning this year. 

You can see our wild-card round projections below, where we have both teams in Los Angeles hosting a playoff game. If the the Rams and Chargers can't sell out those games, it might be time to move back to St. Louis and San Diego. 

Wild-card round 

(Based on this week's projections)

AFC

(5) Tennessee at (4) L.A. Chargers

(6) Baltimore at (3) Jacksonville

Byes: New England, Pittsburgh

NFC 

(5) Atlanta at (4) New Orleans

(6) Seattle at (3) L.A. Rams

Byes: Philadelphia, Minnesota