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It's pretty surreal watching the Kansas City Chiefs' season. The Chiefs came out of their bye at 5-4 and we all just (rationally) believed they'd rip off some wins. Instead they've lost three of four and find themselves +2500 to win the AFC, easily the largest number they've had since Patrick Mahomes, who set a career "high" with nine straight pass attempts that were incompletions or interceptions on Sunday night, took over.

The Los Angeles Chargers, an AFC West rival, have to smell some blood in the water with the Chiefs struggling to make the playoffs and that side of the bracket completely wide open for the first time in forever. Expect a motivated team when L.A. hosts the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14's edition of Monday Night Football. 

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We might not see a ton of points in this one, so be careful about how many props you're piecing together, as it could end up being a minimal offensive game. But let's find some winners anyway.

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Chargers (+2.5) vs. Eagles

Underdogs have been frisky the last couple of weeks as chaos has unfolded around the NFL, and this feels like a frisky dog kind of night. I'm not entirely sure what sort of home crowd the Chargers will have for this one -- will Eagles fans living in Los Angeles invade SoFi Stadium?

I'm also not sure how comfortable I feel with Justin Herbert, fresh off surgery last week, going against what's turned into a nasty Eagles pass rush while missing several offensive linemen. 

With all of that in play, why are the Chargers not a full field goal dog here, and why is the line creeping back their way? 

I believe it's because the Chargers present a mismatch for Philly to a degree. They're getting Omarion Hampton back, which is massive news. But they should be slinging the ball quick and short to Ladd McConkey and then taking play-action shots once Philly's defense creeps in to stop those quick hitters and the run game. 

On the other side of the ball, will Philly even try to pass early on? Who knows! It's a week-to-week and basically drive-to-drive proposition for this Eagles offense. 

My guess is they try to blunt-force run Saquon Barkley, and I don't think it will go very well against a Chargers defense that has been top 10 in the NFL in yards per game allowed and yards per rush allowed over its last three outings. 

The Bolts also need this game more. With the Chiefs losing Sunday night, they can win on Monday and really put themselves into position to secure a playoff berth. I trust Jim Harbaugh in spots like this.

Monday Night Football player props

Ladd McConkey over 4.5 receptions (+102)

McConkey's receptions are pretty down from what we saw his rookie season in terms of volume (0.3 fewer catches per game less). He's been active the last few weeks, but not dominant.

I think we get a vintage McConkey game against an Eagles team that might be a touch vulnerable to quick-twitch underneath shots. The Chargers need to avoid Herbert taking a ton of contact, what better way to do so than to feed McConkey underneath?

Saquon Barkley Over 16.5 receiving yards

Barkley's receiving game has been hit or miss independent of game script, but he's exceeded this number in three of the last five weeks, and the Eagles have shown a real inclination to get him several targets per game in that span. We're not asking for much here, folks, just a pair of catches for around eight yards per pop. 

It's possible the Chargers will get heat on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles want to get the ball out quickly. Los Angeles could also take the lead and force Philly to pass more.

The former is more likely, and I think it could be a Barkley receiving game here as Philly tries to avoid Hurts holding the ball too much against one of the better defenses in football.   

Justin Herbert Under 0.5 interceptions

I think we're looking at minimal offensive exposure to this game from a passing perspective: the market is screaming low-scoring rock fight here. 

Herbert's injury is a concern, but the issue isn't with his throwing hand, so he still should be able to deliver precise passes, and it hopefully won't affect his decision-making in this game. 

We don't usually see his interception price this cheap, but it's a weird game with the injury and a tough matchup, so we'll bite on Herbert not throwing a pick Monday night. 

Anytime touchdown picks

Jalen Hurts anytime TD

Principle play on the Tush Push here, as I'm bound to play Hurts almost anytime the number is even money or higher. He just gets so many looks down by the goal line if the Eagles get inside the 5, so it's worth it at this price. His rushing touchdowns are down from what we expect and he still has three over the last three weeks. 

Any sort of end zone DPI or tackle at the 1-yard line means we're getting a Hurts run up the middle. It's just a value play, honestly.

Oronde Gadsden anytime TD

The touchdown numbers for a low-scoring game are pretty condensed here, with most of the key players involved in this game set around even money to 3-1, so there aren't many bombs. 

The Eagles might be able to slow down the run game near the goal line, which could mean Gadsden getting some looks down in the red zone. 

His production has dipped a little and you have to worry about how many snaps any Chargers pass catcher will get in a game where they want to protect Herbert, but he's a big-bodied target for his quarterback by the goal line.