NFL Week 17 betting power ratings: Correlated money line parlays to know, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 17 matchup in the NFL
We're getting into the part of every season where we have to worry about motivation, and not just for teams out of the playoff race. Teams like the Eagles and potentially Steelers (if the Ravens lose on Saturday) will have to determine if they want to chase a slightly better seed or limit the risk of injury to key players over the final two weeks.
The potential rest angle for certain teams allows us to play a few correlated parlays at this time of year. If the Ravens lose on Saturday, the Browns will certainly have a much better chance of beating the Steelers on Sunday, as starters could rest for some or all of the game. Throwing the Packers and Browns in a money line parlay should get you anywhere from +350 to +400, but you can also add the Bills for an additional potential rest angle.
Another potential correlated money line parlay involves the three NFC West teams, all of whom clinched a playoff berth in Week 16. The Rams' loss to the Seahawks could wind up being catastrophic as they may not even have a chance to play for a division title by Monday. If the favored Seahawks and 49ers both win their matchups, they'll be squaring off for the No. 1 seed in Week 18 and the Rams will have to consider resting starters for some or all of their game against the Falcons. Sean McVay has shown a preference for resting players in the past.
Putting the Seahawks, 49ers and Falcons together in a money line parlay should get you even better odds than our previous parlay considering the Falcons are a massive underdog early in the week.
I'll have several spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 17 power ratings
| Team | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7.5 |
| SEA | 6.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 6 | 6 |
| NE | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 |
| BUF | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| JAC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| SF | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| PHI | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4.5 |
| DEN | 4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
| LAC | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| DET | 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5 |
| CHI | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| GB | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | 4 |
| PIT | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| BAL | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
| CAR | -1 | -2.5 | -2 | -2.5 | -4.5 |
| DAL | -1.5 | 0 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 |
| CIN | -2 | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| ATL | -3 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3 | -3 |
| IND | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5 | 2.5 | 5 |
| MIN | -4.5 | -1 | -3 | -6 | -3 |
| NO | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -7 | -6.5 |
| TEN | -5.5 | -8 | -8.5 | -9 | -8.5 |
| CLE | -6 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -6 | -5.5 |
| ARI | -6.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3 |
| KC | -7.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 6.5 |
| WAS | -8 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 |
| NYG | -8 | -5 | -3.5 | -4 | -2.5 |
| MIA | -8.5 | -2.5 | -2 | -3.5 | -4 |
| LV | -9 | -10 | -7 | -7 | -6 |
| NYJ | -10 | -9 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 |
I'm still giving the Rams a clear edge over the Seahawks despite last week's result, which required an improbable fourth-quarter rally by Seattle just to send the game into overtime. The Rams might be on the road the entire playoffs and still wind up favored in every game.
I have the Bills, Patriots and Jaguars grouped together in my second tier. Buffalo appears to have the weakest roster of the three overall, but the Bills also have the great equalizer at quarterback, and Josh Allen might run through the AFC playoffs winning games 41-38 if he has to. The Jaguars have done enough to be right alongside the best teams in the AFC after their dismantling of the Broncos, a team I finally started to believe in heading into last week. The Patriots may be getting a little bit of the benefit of the doubt, but they played well enough in their two games against Buffalo that I didn't want to have them slotted lower than the Bills.
Next up comes the 49ers and Eagles, two teams that are getting healthier down the stretch and might be able to play up to their full potential in January. San Francisco is much like Buffalo with questions about the defense but an offense that is going to be hard to beat in a shootout, but I have enough confidence in the defense to make plays that I want to have them as clearly higher than the Lions, a team with a similar profile.
The Broncos and Chargers slot in next, and I'm going to have a hard time not taking the Chargers in Week 18 with how hit or miss the Broncos have been this year. I'd play both over Houston, a much more hit-and-miss team that is hard to trust after an embarrassing effort against the Raiders.
You could argue the Bears should be much higher than where I have them, behind a Lions team that is probably going to miss the playoffs, but they were down 10 at home with two minutes left to a team that lost its QB midgame. Kudos for pulling out the win, but with a point differential that sits 15th between the Chiefs and Steelers -- and I'm already putting Chicago ahead of Pittsburgh -- I don't know that I'm comfortable moving them much higher. That would certainly change if they can beat the 49ers in San Francisco.
The ratings for the Ravens and Packers are up in the air with uncertainty around their QB situation, and I'm still putting the Bucs slightly ahead of the Panthers despite Carolina's win.
Full Week 18 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | WAS | +3.5 | +7 | +5 | Johnson expected for WAS |
| DET | MIN | +3.5 | +7 | +5.5 | Brosmer to start for MIN |
| DEN | KC | +5.5 | +12.5 | +9.5 | Oladokun to start for KC |
| HOU | LAC | +1.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | |
| BAL | GB | -3 | -2.5 | -3.5 | QB situation on both sides is fluid |
| JAC | IND | +5.5 | +6.5 | +7 | |
| SEA | CAR | +7.5 | +7.5 | +6 | |
| ARI | CIN | -5.5 | -7 | -6 | |
| PIT | CLE | +4.5 | +3.5 | +5 | PIT could rest players if BAL loses |
| NO | TEN | +2 | +2.5 | -1 | |
| NE | NYJ | +9.5 | +13.5 | +12.5 | |
| TB | MIA | +2.5 | +5.5 | +5.5 | |
| NYG | LV | +3 | -1.5 | -0.5 | |
| PHI | BUF | -3 | -1.5 | -3.5 | PHI could rest players |
| CHI | SF | -2.5 | -3 | -4.5 | |
| LAR | ATL | +8.5 | +8 | +8 | LAR could rest players if SEA, SF win |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home-field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an auto play, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
