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SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman successfully nailed both of his Week 16 betting system picks, taking the Bengals against the Dolphins and the Raiders against the Texans when looking at teams who bounce back after being shut out in a loss. Hochman has shifted his focus to Week 17 and has identified a play under his system which looks at division games featuring low totals.

NFL divisional underdogs in games with totals of 42 or less

  • Win Rate: 84-57-4 ATS (59.5%)
  • Sample Size: Since 2013
  • Criteria: Any divisional underdog in a game with a total of 42 or less
  • Edge: November and December outdoor games

Why does this work?

There's something about Week 17 when division rivals meet. These teams know each other inside out, so games are scrappy and points are hard to come by. Oddsmakers aren't fooled— they set the totals low, figuring defense and weather will do their part. And the underdog? They get a few more points than usual, just because it's such a familiar battle. If you're paying attention, there's an edge to be found.

Week 17 qualifiers

Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | Confidence: 5 out of 5

The Browns feel like a good pick to cover +3.5 against the Steelers. If Pittsburgh already has the AFC North title wrapped up, you can bet the Steelers will sit their main guys. For Cleveland, this game is everything—the Browns will be fired up, especially with Myles Garrett chasing the sack record. Playing at home gives them a little extra juice, too. Even if the Steelers are the more talented team, the Browns have plenty of reasons to show up big.

When Mike Tomlin was directly asked about resting starters if the division is clinched, he stated: "It's possible." For a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers nursing a left wrist injury, combined with the Steelers' extensive injury list (T.J. Watt out, Seumalo out, Pierre out, Herbig questionable), a rest scenario becomes operationally sensible. The Steelers currently hold the No. 4 seed—clinching before their contest means there's no seeding benefit to winning in Cleveland, only an increased injury risk before the playoffs.

The Browns are out of the playoff hunt, sitting on the No. 3 overall pick with about a 25% shot at landing the top spot. While the 2026 draft isn't packed with quarterback talent, the 2027 class looks far more promising. But don't expect Cleveland to roll over just to boost its draft odds—especially not with the Steelers on the other side. These teams have a real rivalry, and pride always matters in this matchup. This asymmetry means the Browns may effectively be the more motivated team on the field—an unusual dynamic in a contest where Pittsburgh is 9-6 and Cleveland is 3-12.

Pittsburgh just lost its top receiver for the next two games—850 yards and 6 touchdowns out the window because of a suspension. Losing DK Metcalf really stings. He was targeted 99 times this season and was the Steelers' go-to guy for making things happen downfield. That leaves Pittsburgh counting on Adam Thielen, who's 34 and not exactly a picture of health, and Calvin Austin III, who's banged up and might not even play. Without Metcalf, it's a tall order for Rodgers—he's already throwing for just 6.9 yards per attempt (NFL average is 7.0), and his QBR (44.3) is well below average (50.0). With their best deep threat out, the Steelers could really struggle to keep drives alive or hit those big, momentum-shifting plays.

This matchup really favors the Browns' pass rush going up against a shaky Steelers offensive line. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh is just 3-9 straight up when T.J. Watt is out. On top of that, the weather looks windy (15-25 mph), which could make throwing the ball tricky. Most of the public is loading up on the Steelers—73% of spread bets and 75% of the cash, per DraftKings. Take the points where you can, and don't shy away from sprinkling a little on the Browns' money line.