What a weird two weeks for the Washington Redskins. The floundering franchise started off Week 5 by sitting as a two-touchdown home underdog to the Patriots, then managed to give New England its first deficit of 2019 with an end-around score in the first quarter, only to get blown out by the Pats and subsequently fire Jay Gruden five weeks into the season. Rounding it all out, they are now road favorites in Week 6.

It's what happens when you play the NFL's best team and the NFL's worst team in back-to-back weeks, but it is actually historically significant, because the Redskins are the first team in NFL history to go from being a two-touchdown underdog at home in one week to being a road favorite in the week immediately after. 

You might be surprised to find out, but there have only been 36 double-digit touchdown underdogs since the merger, according to the Pro-Football-Reference database. 

Worth noting: I believe the point spread database dates back to 1982. Suffice to say, it is rare for a team to be a double-digit home dog. In fact, this year is the first year in NFL history where we've seen double-digit home dogs in the month of September and obviously the first year where we've seen MULTIPLE double digit dogs in September.

Both of those dogs were actually the historically terrible Dolphins, who were underdogs by more than 14 points at home twice in September, once against the Patriots and once against the Chargers. They did not cover either time. 

We also saw the Redskins sitting as double-digit home dogs last week against the Patriots and while they mustered that early touchdown, that game was never really close to not covering. 

Diving into the list of double-digit home dogs from the past, what you do NOT see is one of those teams going on the road the following week and being a favorite. Washington, favored by 3.5 points against the Dolphins, are the first. 

The only two previous examples who came remotely close were the 2005 Texans, who were +14.5 at home versus Colts in a game where they got stomped and then -3 the next week at home against Browns. They would win that game ... by three points. That's a pretty huge swing, but they would have been three-point dogs to the Browns on the road, if you bake standard home-field advantage into things. 

The 1992 Colts had a chance at making it happen as well. That team was a 16.5-point home dog at Hoosier Dome to K-Gun Buffalo Bills. Crazily enough, the Colts actually beat Buffalo outright, which should have been a sign to make them a road favorite. Instead, the Bills were 1.5-point dogs to the 2-11 Patriots in New England in a game they also won.

So that leaves us with Washington. They can't complete the sweep, what with the whole 33-7 loss to the Patriots at home last week leading to Jay Gruden's firing. But they can salvage some pride this week! They just have to beat the Dolphins and cover the 3.5 points to make everyone sort of proud of them. 

Or something. Unfortunately it sounds like the Redskins are going to try and ride the running game to victory in this one, which is a bit concerning. 

Yikes. Callahan is operating under the classic "Field of Dreams" approach: if you run it, you will win. Unfortunately, basic analytics tell us it's not a true statement. Additionally, the concept of running more versus running effectively is just ridiculous. Pounding the ball a bunch of times without actually rushing for good yardage and thinking that is a smart way of approaching the offense is not a smart game plan.

Maybe it works against the Dolphins because they're the Dolphins. Maybe Adrian Peterson blows up this week. But long term it won't be effective. For Callahan's sake, it better equate the surprising road-favorite Redskins coming away with their first win of the season.