NFL Week 9 odds, picks: Aaron Rodgers lights up hobbled Niners, Washington's front seven steamrolls Giants

Here's a look at some of the better wagers heading into Week 9

By Tyler Sullivan

Nov 4, 2020 at 9:14 pm ET • 6 min read

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

The NFL trade deadline is in the rearview mirror -- it's okay if you didn't notice the largely uneventful event -- and Week 9 is set to kick off as many clubs across the league are on the verge of beginning the second half of the 2020 regular season. While the balance of power in some divisions (AFC East, AFC West) have a clear leader in the race, there are still a great number of divisions in both conferences that are bunched up. This is the week where some could begin to separate, particularly in the NFC South where the Saints are set to visit the Buccaneers. If Tampa Bay wins this NFC South showdown, they would extend its lead. If New Orleans pulls out the victory, they'd not only draw even at 6-2 but would leap over them for the division lead thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

All of those scenarios make for a great weekend of football and a great weekend for bettors looking to sink their teeth into some of these high-profile matchups. Before we jump into the Week 9 slate, Week 8 brought us a mixed bag, going 6-8 ATS/SU. While we did predict the Rams limiting Tua Tagovailoa in his debut, we did see Jared Goff committing four turnovers coming, resulting in an ATS/SU loss. We were able to squeak by with a New England cover and were right to take the points with the Steelers, who remain undefeated on the year.

With that brief recap out of the way, let's dive into these matchups for Week 9. All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook.

Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.

Locks of the Week

Green Bay at San Francisco

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFLN)
Point spread: Green Bay -5.5

The San Francisco 49ers continue to be mauled by the injury bug this season with the latest being quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle both set to miss extended time. Garoppolo's absence will thrust Nick Mullens into the starting spot under center. While he performed well under duress against Seattle a week ago, I don't believe he'll be able to outduel Aaron Rodgers, even if the Packers quarterback has a depleted backfield thanks to injury/COVID-related situations. Rodgers has covered 75% of his Thursday games in his career and the Packers have responded well after ATS losses. Kyle Shanahan has a strong history (3-0 ATS) against the Packers, but with limited weapons offensively, Green Bay finally snaps that streak.

Pick: Green Bay -5.5
Score prediction: Green Bay 24, San Francisco 17

Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 9, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams will cover in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,600 on its top-rated picks.

N.Y. Giants at Washington

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point spread: Washington -3

Despite a 1-7 record, the Giants have kept games pretty competitive this season, owning a 5-3 ATS record heading into Week 9. They were even able to cover what was billed to be a blowout on Monday Night Football at the hands of the Buccaneers. While you have to give credit to head coach Joe Judge for keeping his team in these games, the talent level just isn't there for me to trust them in this matchup. Washington has one of the best front sevens in the entire NFL and the Giants offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Daniel Jones. When Jones is under pressure, he's bound to turn the ball over. In their previous matchup in Week 6, Washington wasn't able to apply as much pressure as you'd hope, totaling one sack and five quarterback hits. With a bye week of rest and time to prepare, I think that swings in the other direction against a Giants team playing on a short week.

Pick: Washington -3
Score prediction: Washington 17, New York 13

Miami at Arizona

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Arizona -5

The only team that has a better cover percentage than the Cardinals (71%) dating back to Week 5 of last season is Miami (74%). This year, the Dolphins have continued to perform well against the spread, owning a 5-1 record after failing to cover in the opener against New England. They came away with a SU win over the Rams in Week 8, but I don't like their chances against the Cardinals here. Brian Flores' club made the most of a number of Jared Goff turnovers last week, which I don't believe Kyler Murray will commit here. Tua Tagovailoa also didn't impress that much in his debut, which makes me think Murray can outpace him offensively rather quickly. The Cardinals come into this matchup covering three straight.

Pick: Arizona -5
Score prediction: Arizona 27, Miami 20

Pittsburgh at Dallas

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Pittsburgh -13.5

Pittsburgh has arguably the best defense in the NFL and that unit will now get to face either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush, who'll start for Dallas. The Cowboys have been unable to score more than 10 points since Dak Prescott got hurt and I don't expect that trend to change here, given the Steelers defense and lack of talent under center for Dallas. Pittsburgh leads the league in pressures per game, while the Cowboys are tied with the Egles for the most sacks allowed (13) in the past three games. The Steelers offense, meanwhile, should cruise against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in DVOA.

Pick: Pittsburgh -13.5
Score prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Dallas 10

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Point spread: Tampa Bay -5.5

What I think you saw last week from Tampa Bay in their near loss to the Giants was a classic situation where they dismissed that opponent while having their eyes on this NFC South showdown with the Saints in Week 9. The first time these two teams played one another came back in the Week 1 opener where New Orleans was able to pull out the 34-23 win. Since then, however, the Saints have struggled against the spread, owning a 1-5 record. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has the best point differential in the NFL (+93) since that Week 1 meeting. What this game will come down to, in my eyes, is the Tampa Bay pass rush vs. Drew Brees. The Bucs have the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL and lead the league in pressures. Since the start of last season, Brees has performed fantastically when blitzed, completing 72% of his passes and has a 15-0 touchdown to interception ratio. I see that pristine record changing with the Bucs likely getting the better of Brees on the road, but it won't be enough to clear by a touchdown.

Pick: New Orleans +5.5
Score prediction: Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 24