Week 7 of the NFL season begins with "Thursday Night Football" when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Oakland Raiders.

The Chiefs are three-point favorites, up a half-point from where the Vegas line opened. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored in the game, is 46.5, down a one point from where it opened.

Before you bet on a prime-time game like this with so much NFL odds movement, you'll want to hear what Vegas legend Micah Roberts has to say.

On "Sunday Night Football," Roberts was all over the Giants +13, noting Big Blue's tendency to play well on the road. The result: Giants 23, Broncos 10, a shocking upset and a huge 26-point cover. It was his eighth straight winning NFL pick. That's almost unheard of.

Part of his success: He ran Vegas sportsbooks for 13 years. When a line is off and there's value created by the house trying to generate action on one side, Roberts sees it instantly.

Roberts knows these two teams are coming off disastrous Sundays. The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season at home against the underdog Steelers, while the Raiders lost their fourth straight in another sluggish performance, this time against the Chargers.

The Raiders have regressed considerably. Last season, they were No. 7 in yards and points. This season, they rank No. 30 in offense with only 278 yards per game. They are No. 24 in rushing yards at just 93.7 per game and have scored an average of 13 points per game the past four weeks. They haven't had a running back top 80 yards this season.

But just because the Raiders have been struggling doesn't mean the Chiefs cover, especially on the road on a short week against a division rival. 

Despite missing a week, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is still in the top half of the league in touchdowns (eight), has a top-10 rating (93.9) and is No. 4 in completion percentage (68.3 percent). And wide receiver Michael Crabtree is third in receiving scores (five). Defensively, Oakland is fourth in tackles (406) and held the division-rival Broncos and Chargers to 33 total points already this season.

Meanwhile, Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt hasn't found the end zone since Week 3 and is fresh off a season-low 21 yards rushing. Stud wide receiver Tyreek Hill suffered a neck injury last week.

It's no surprise that Roberts is leaning toward the under on "Thursday Night Football," but what about against the spread, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines the point spread winner for Chiefs-Raiders. And SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein agrees with him.

So which side should you back in Chiefs-Raiders on Thursday night? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor determines which side of Chiefs-Raiders you need to be all over, all from the expert who has nailed his past eight NFL picks, and find out.