Packers vs. Bears prediction: Is this the biggest rivalry game in years with the NFC North at stake?

Control of the division and the NFC's No. 2 seed will be on the line Saturday night at Soldier Field

Saturday night's Week 16 showdown between the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) and Chicago Bears (10-4) could be the most meaningful chapter in the NFL's oldest rivalry since these teams met with a Super Bowl berth on the line in the 2010 NFC Championship Game.

The winner will control its own destiny in the NFC North race and hold the conference's No. 2 seed entering Week 17, the penultimate week of the 2025 regular season. It's also just the third time -- and second this season -- that the Packers and Bears have met with both teams at least five games above .500.

Green Bay won the first matchup, a 28-21 victory at Lambeau Field in Week 14, behind quarterback Jordan Love, who threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns while completing 17 of 25 passes. Bears rookie Caleb Williams countered with 186 yards and two touchdowns but was intercepted in the end zone by Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon with 22 seconds remaining, sealing the outcome.

With All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons sidelined for the season after tearing his ACL in Week 15, the burden now falls more heavily on Love and Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs, who rushed for 86 yards and the go-ahead touchdown on 20 carries in the first meeting.

Chicago's offense will lean even more on Williams' connection with DJ Moore, especially with wide receivers Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden III (ankle) ruled out.

Will the Packers or Bears emerge victorious Saturday night? Here's a full preview and prediction for the unofficial NFC North championship game.

Where to watch Packers vs. Bears

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 20 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Soldier Field (Chicago)
• TV: FOX | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Bears -1.5, O/U 46.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Packers vs. Bears: Key matchups to watch

1. Can Jordan Love repeat his dominance vs. the Bears' blitz?

Love torched Chicago's blitz in the Packers' Week 14 victory, completing 8 of 11 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns for a season-high 63.6% success rate on those dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Both of his touchdown throws to Christian Watson -- a 23-yard deep strike and a 41-yard catch-and-run -- came against the blitz.

Replicating that success will be a major key Saturday night. Love is averaging a career-high 8.4 yards per attempt versus the blitz in 2025, the fifth-best mark in the NFL and a sizable jump from his 2023 (6.8) and 2024 (6.6) averages.

2. How much of a factor will Caleb Williams' legs be in the rematch?

Williams scrambled, ran or threw on the move on 12 of his 39 dropbacks in Week 14 -- the most scrambles Green Bay's defense has faced in a game this season. On those plays, Williams completed three of nine passes for 62 yards and three first downs, while adding 13 rushing yards and two first downs on three carries.

Through 15 weeks, the Packers have been excellent at limiting scrambling quarterbacks on the ground, allowing just 129 rushing yards on scrambles, tied with Carolina for the fewest in the NFL. They've been far more vulnerable through the air, surrendering 312 passing yards on scrambles -- the third-most in the league.

Williams also won't be scrambling under the same level of duress. Parsons, who recorded seven pressures in Week 14 — tied for the most by any defender against Chicago this season — is out for the year with a torn ACL. How Green Bay generates pressure, potentially via expanded blitz packages featuring linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, and how Williams responds will go a long way toward determining the outcome of the Week 16 rematch.

3. Will Josh Jacobs continue to punish Chicago's defense despite his knee injury?

Green Bay needs Jacobs, despite battling a nagging knee injury all season, to continue operating as a reliable bell cow, especially with Parsons sidelined for the year. Jacobs rushed for 86 yards and the game-winning touchdown on 20 carries in Week 14, and the Packers will need even more of that production at Soldier Field in Round 2.

He turned a third-and-1 that appeared headed for a loss into a 21-yard gain to set up a first-and-goal on Green Bay's final drive -- a run that had seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady exclaiming, "How did he do that?"

"How did he do that?!"- @TomBrady pic.twitter.com/bkSSdTv5RP

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 8, 2025

That run set up Jacobs' third-and-goal plunge, as he turned his back to the defense and kept his legs churning to power through Chicago's front and give Green Bay a 28-21 lead that held as the final score.

Green Bay's ability to lean on its Pro Bowl running back against the Bears' 23rd-ranked run defense, which allows 126.6 rushing yards per game, will be a critical factor in the Week 16 contest.

😤#ProBowlVote + Josh Jacobs

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/hKJlclgv6Z

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 8, 2025

Packers vs. Bears prediction

In the first meeting, Love's ability to push the ball downfield under pressure proved to be the difference. He remains far more composed against the rush than Williams, who is still navigating his second season as a pro. 

That gap at quarterback should once again tilt the matchup in Green Bay's favor, paving the way for the Packers' eighth sweep of the Bears in the past 10 seasons.

Pick: Green Bay 31, Chicago 27 | Packers +1.5, Over 46.5