Saints vs. Falcons odds, line: 2020 NFL picks, Week 13 predictions from proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Falcons vs. Saints 10,000 times

By Scout Staff

Dec 5, 2020 at 10:48 am ET • 3 min read

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The New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons are set to square off in an NFC South matchup at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta is 4-7 overall and 2-4 at home, while the Saints are 9-2 overall and 4-1 on the road. The Saints won the first meeting of the season in Week 11, 24-9.

New Orleans is favored by three points in the latest Falcons vs. Saints odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 46. Before entering any Saints vs. Falcons picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 20-10 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning almost $900. The model also enters Week 13 on an incredible 116-75 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Saints. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Saints vs. Falcons:

Falcons vs. Saints spread: Falcons +3
Falcons vs. Saints over-under: 46 points
Falcons vs. Saints money line: Atlanta +130, New Orleans -150

What you need to know about the Saints

New Orleans rolled over the Denver Broncos this past Sunday, 31-3. The Saints have won eight consecutive games. Latavius Murray rushed for two TDs and 124 yards on 19 carries. It was the first time Murray has hit the 100-yard rushing mark this season. He is one of four running backs with 500-plus rushing yards in each of the past six seasons. Taysom Hill had two rushing TDs in Week 12 and is the second player in NFL history with two rushing TDs in each of his first two career starts at quarterback.

Alvin Kamara had a rushing TD in the Week 11 meeting. He has 301 scrimmage yards (100.3 per game) in three career games at Atlanta. He ranks third in the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,231) and is tied for third in scrimmage TDs (12). Michael Thomas had nine receptions for 104 yards in the Week 11 meeting. He has 73 receptions for 881 yards (97.9 per game) and three TDs in nine career games vs. Atlanta. Sean Payton is 19-8 vs. the Falcons. The Saints have won five of the last six meetings.

What you need to know about the Falcons

Meanwhile, Atlanta sped past Las Vegas 43-6 last week, registering its largest margin of victory this season. The Falcons have won three of their past four games. Matt Ryan reached 3,000 passing yards (3,163) for the 11th-consecutive season. He has two-plus TD passes in four of his past five vs. New Orleans. Ryan has 2,020 pass yards (336.7 per game) and 17 TDs vs. six INTs in his past six at home vs. the Saints. He is aiming for his third in row at home vs. New Orleans with 300 passing yards and two TDs.

Calvin Ridley has 54 receptions for 797 yards and seven TDs this season and is the first player since Odell Beckham Jr. (2014-16) with 50-plus catches and seven receiving TDs in each of his first three seasons. Ridley has 90-plus receiving yards in four of his five career games vs. New Orleans. Julio Jones has 33 receptions for 555 yards (111 per game) and a TD in his past five at home vs. the Saints. He is listed as questionable for Week 12 because of a hamstring injury. Todd Gurley (knee) is also questionable. The Falcons lead the all-time series, 52-50.

How to make Falcons vs. Saints picks

The model has simulated Falcons vs. Saints 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Saints? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Saints spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 13 of the NFL season on an incredible 116-75 roll.