The defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons trek to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seattle Seahawks on "Monday Night Football." The Falcons are favored by one after the Seahawks were originally favored by a field goal.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored in the game, is 46, up one point from an open of 45.

Before you bet on a high-profile game like this with so much Vegas odds movement, you'll want to hear what veteran handicapper Josh Nagel has to say. He's won numerous handicapping contests and been in the industry for nearly 20 years.

Part of his success: a West Coast insider, he's a whiz at picking Seahawks games, regardless of who they're playing. Amazingly, he's gone 7-1 picking for and against them since last year and has his finger on the pulse of Pete Carroll's team.

Nagel knows the Falcons steamrolled the Dallas Cowboys last week, 27-7. Dallas was without all-world RB Ezekiel Elliott, All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith, and difference-making linebacker Sean Lee.

Entering Week 11, Falcons wideout Julio Jones is fifth in the NFL in receiving yardage at 715, while QB Matt Ryan is ninth in passing yardage at 2,372. Atlanta also has the seventh-ranked defense. 

SportsLine's projection model says Ryan will continue to light it up, throwing for almost 300 yards and a touchdown at CenturyLink Field. Jones has the best shot at a receiving touchdown and goes for almost 100 yards.

The Falcons also have an edge in net yards per play, defined as total yards per play minus opponent yards per play. The Falcons almost double-up the Seahawks in that category, 1.1 to 0.6.

But just because the Falcons are coming into Monday night hot doesn't mean they cover a one-point spread, especially on the road in one of the NFL's loudest stadiums.

The Seahawks just lost CB Richard Sherman to a torn Achilles, but Seattle is still a top-five defense in points allowed at 18.3. And aside from Deshaun Watson's heroics three weeks ago, the Seahawks have given up 44 points total at CenturyLink Field this season.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has caught fire, tossing 11 TDs in the last four games and topping 300 yards twice over that span. He also rushed for 77 yards against the Redskins two games ago.

And despite Seattle struggling to establish a rushing attack, Wilson has been able to air it out effectively. Entering Week 11, he's second to Tom Brady in passing yardage at 2,543. 

SportsLine's advanced projection model says Wilson goes for almost 300 combined passing and rushing yards on Monday Night Football and accounts for two touchdowns.

Nagel thinks Seahawks vs. Falcons will go Over, but there's one team he knows is a very strong play to cover. He's sharing which one it is over at SportsLine.

So which side of Seahawks-Falcons should you take? Visit SportsLine now to see what huge x-factor determines Seahawks-Falcons, and what team is a very strong play to cover, all from the handicapper who's nailed seven of his last eight Seahawks picks.