Heading into the 2018 NFL season, one of the most popular so-called sleeper teams is the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have everything you'd look for in selecting a team that is going to make "the leap." They have a young quarterback who is incredibly well-respected around the league and who people think is a future star in Jimmy Garoppolo. They have an excellent head coach who knows how to put his players in position to succeed in Kyle Shanahan. They have underrated contributors surrounding that nucleus, from guys like stalwart left tackle Joe Staley to center Weston Richburg and wide receivers Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon. And they have a defense with a ton of young talent that is waiting to take a step forward. 

Unfortunately for the 49ers, they've already been hit by the injury bug, with projected starting running back Jerick McKinnon tearing his ACL, and backup Matt Breida and tight end George Kittle each dealing with the after-effects of a shoulder injury. Also unfortunate for the 49ers is their season-opening schedule, as they begin the season against one of the inner-circle favorites in the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings. 

The Vikings pose a particularly interesting challenge for the 49ers given their almost complete lack of weaknesses on defense. Minnesota ranked first in the NFL last season in both yards and points allowed, as well as second in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA. Mike Zimmer's crew was equally effective against both the run and the pass, and has star contributors at every level on both the outside and the interior. It's difficult to think of a defense that definitively has more sheer talent than the Vikings -- only the Jaguars can really compete at that level. 

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Weaknesses hard to find in Vikings 'D'

Being that this game marks Garoppolo's first as his team's unquestioned starter heading into the regular season, it makes the most sense to focus on the matchup between him, his offensive line, and his pass-catchers against a Minnesota pass rush and secondary that combined to rank first in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed, third in opponent's passer rating, and fourth in pass defense DVOA last season. 

The Vikings' spectacular pass defense all starts up front. The ability to get pressure on the quarterback without necessarily needing to blitz is paramount in today's NFL, and the Vikings has some of the best pressure players in the league. 

It's hard to believe now that Everson Griffen's huge contract was actually questioned at the time he signed because he'd only been a rotational player to that point in his career, but he is an outright star these days. Last season was his best yet, as he produced 13 sacks, 12 hits and 41 hurries during the regular season and playoffs combined, per Pro Football Focus. Across from him is Danielle Hunter, who had a terrific 2017 season in his own right with eight sacks, four hits, and 49 hurries. Dealing with those two coming off the edge would be difficult enough, but opposing offensive lines also have to worry about Linval Joseph up the middle. And he's not even the primary interior threat, as the Vikings added former Jets and Seahawks star Sheldon Richardson this offseason on a one-year deal. Richardson's ability to slice through blockers into the backfield is a major problem, especially when you cannot devote resources to double-team him lest you risk getting beaten around the edge before your quarterback has a chance to set up in his drop. 

And while the Vikings don't necessarily have to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback, they have the luxury of rolling out multiple terrific blitzers on the back half of their defense. Anthony Barr has improved a ton in coverage since entering the league but he was a pass-rusher extraordinaire when he was in college, and that shines through whenever Zimmer elects to send him on a blitz. His blitzes don't result in sacks all that often but he is a heavy-pressure player and he's not the only one. Harrison Smith is perhaps the best blitzing safety in the NFL, and the Vikings often have success sending their corners on disguised blitzes that take opposing linemen by surprise. 

It helps that they have absolutely no qualms about leaving any of their secondary players alone on an island in coverage. They have good reason to feel really good about doing so, with one of the deepest groups of defensive backs in the league. Xavier Rhodes has allowed a catch on just 51.6 percent of throws in his direction over the past two seasons, per Pro Football Focus, the third-best mark among corners targeted at least 150 times. The ageless Terence Newman has retired and taken a position on Minnesota's coaching staff, but the Vikings have reason to feel comfortable with Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, and rookie Mike Hughes taking his place in the rotation. Newman most often worked the slot last year, which left the other corners playing outside and the safeties and linebackers covering the tight ends and running backs. (Smith, in particular, was fantastic in coverage, allowing a 22.0 passer rating on 42 targets.) 

Per Football Outsiders, the slot was the team's weakest coverage area last season and the only one where they did not rank inside the top 10 in DVOA. Minnesota ranked ninth vs. No. 1 receivers, fifth vs. No. 2 receivers, second vs. tight ends, first vs. running backs, third on passes to the left side of the field, second on passes to the middle of the field, ninth on passes to the right side of the field, 10th on deep passes, and second on short passes. Again: no real weaknesses. That complete lack of exploitable areas made the Vikings the best third-down defense in the league not just last season, but of this century. Per PFF, no defense since the year 2000 allowed third-down conversions at a lower rate than the Vikings' 25.2 percent last season. The next-closest team in 2017, the Jaguars, allowed a 31.6 percent conversion rate on third downs, meaning the distance between first and second place was the same as the distance between second and 15th.

Niners offense clicked with Jimmy G

Of course, the 49ers have reason to feel confident in their offense. San Francisco ranked 28th in points, 20th in yards, 24th in yards per play, and 28th in offensive DVOA through 11 games last season. When Garoppolo became the starting quarterback for the team's 12th game, everything kicked into a much higher gear. 

QBPointsYardsYds/PlayDVOA
Not Jimmy28202428
Jimmy 5341

Garoppolo went 5-0 across his five starts, giving him an overall record of 7-0 in his career. His completion rate of 67.4 percent was far above average. His 8.8 yards per attempt showed he has the ability to push the ball downfield with the best of them. His 96.2 passer rating was quite good and his 80.7 QBR was even better. He led two fourth-quarter comebacks in his five-game starting stint, as well, and it's not difficult to see why the 49ers rewarded him handsomely with a huge contract extension this offseason. 

With a full summer to really get in sync with Shanahan and his offense, big things are expected from Garoppolo this season. Shanahan has always shown an ability to raise his quarterbacks' level of play, and while it's unlikely Garoppolo goes undefeated or averages 8.8 yards per attempt again, it's reasonable to expect him to play at an above-average level or better for a starter. The key, in this game, will be his decision-making. 

Garoppolo's one true weakness last season was a propensity for turning the ball over, as he was intercepted five times on 178 pass attempts. That 2.8 percent interception rate ranked 30th among the 40 players who threw at least 150 passes, and is in line with the career mark of turnover-prone players like Jameis Winston. It's obvious that he has both a ton of arm talent and a ton of confidence in his ability to make every throw, and that leads him to be aggressive. That's a good quality, and it can result in big plays that other quarterbacks might not make. But it also carries with it a certain degree of risk. 

Taking risks against the 2017 Titans defense can turn out just fine, and result in your throwing for 381 yards at 8.9 yards per attempt, without being intercepted. Taking similar risks against the 2018 Vikings defense could turn out much differently. Luckily for Garoppolo, however, he has one of the league's best schemers on his side. Rare is the play-caller who presents his quarterback with easier decisions to make than Shanahan. With combination routes, pre-snap motion and the like, he sets his quarterback up for success on throws that have a relatively low degree of difficulty but high potential payoff. One need only watch Garoppolo tear up the fantastic Jaguars defense from last season with a series of completions to wide-open players in the flat and on swing and/or wheel routes to know what that looks like when Shanahan is at his best. 

He and Garoppolo are working with an interesting, if relatively ordinary, group of pass-catchers. Pierre Garcon is a consistent possession receiver, but doesn't have a ton of upside. Marquise Goodwin is a speedster who became a much more complete receiver last season and looks like he might be Garoppolo's true No. 1 target. George Kittle had a solid rookie season and has a lot of talent but is coming off an injury. Dante Pettis is a fantastic route-runner and seems like a great fit for Shanahan's scheme, but he's also a rookie who has not shown much yet. And McKinnon, who was supposed to really open things up out of the backfield, is done for the year. 

None of those players looks like they have an advantage against their Vikings defensive counterpart, at least on paper. But that's where Shanahan's design and Garoppolo's talent come in. They elevate the players around them. They'll have to do so throughout the 2018 season if they want to make the leap to playoff contention that so many are predicting. Week 1 might just be their toughest test all season. It'll be fascinating to see how it all works out.