Three surprise Premier League teams: Everton, Wolves and Tottenham are flying high at the 10-game mark
As the season nears its second third, the table has some real surprises
By
James Benge
•
8 min read
The promised land of 10 games into the Premier League has been reached. Those ludicrous hot takes you were making off nine games of expected goals data? Congratulations, now they are nice and accurate prophecies! At this momentous mark of the 2023-24 season a few teams have caught our eye. Let's take a look:
1. Everton
Ten points from 10 games just about scans for the team Everton have been over the last few years, there ought to be no great surprise that as the clocks go back the Toffees find themselves moored above the relegation zone. That is until you see them play. Under Sean Dyche this team has become pretty good at pretty important aspects of football. They may never thrill you in the same way as Saturday's opponents Brighton, but elegancy and efficacy are not the same thing. The cause for surprise where Everton are concerned is that they simply have not got the rewards their performances deserve.
According to Understat's expected goals (xG) model, Everton have delivered performances that deliver 15.85 expected points, a solidly midtable return. The only team with fewer actual points than their expected tally are Chelsea (and there is precious little surprising about that cobbled together squad delivering less than the sum of its parts).
How have Everton put together such impressive metrics? Unsurprisingly for a team managed by Dyche the bedrock has been a defense that has given up the sixth lowest non-penalty xG in the Premier League this season, slightly more than Tottenham, slightly less than Liverpool. Unlike those sides and the rest above them, possession doesn't constitute much of a defensive weapon for the Toffees. They let their opponents have the ball... to a point. Everton give up 305 touches in their half per game, 11th in the league, but the 25 in their penalty area is the seventh fewest in the league, once more comparable with Spurs and Liverpool.
The Reds' experience in the Anfield derby spoke to the qualities of this Everton side. Even with a man advantage for over a half, Mohamed Salah et al were driven to distraction just trying to get into the penalty area, let alone craft good shots in it. Had a cross not caught Michael Keane's trailing arm in the 75th minute, the visitors might well have clung on to a point at Anfield.
A solid defense might be the Dyche calling card, but that alone is not enough to make a midtable side. Compared to last season, Everton are taking 27% more shots per game while their own xG has jumped from 1.2 per game to 1.6. He has unleashed the box-crashing qualities of Abdoulaye Doucoure, a man who seems magnetically attracted to second balls in dangerous areas. Meanwhile Dyche seems to have understood that hurling Dominic Calvert-Lewin back into the team the moment he has recovered from an injury does nothing but sew the seeds for the next breakdown.
"I've got to give the manager credit for being patient and taking pressure off my shoulders because previously it killed me," said Everton's match winner after Sunday's victory at West Ham. "The rush to get me back to get back fit and coming back too soon and breaking down, that cycle had to stop. He came in and said, 'This will stop' and he has allowed me to take time to get in this position. I guess we're all reaping the rewards now."
Hanging over all this is the potential sporting sanctions that may come with the Premier League's investigation into Everton. The impact of this threatens to be profound but equally it might further strengthen the siege mentality that Dyche is fostering at Goodison Park. If that is the case, then this team might be able to survive even if 12 points are taken from them.
2. Wolves
If any teams were the consensus picks for relegation this season they were newly promoted Luton Town and Sheffield United. After them, however, the third side seemed obvious. Wolverhampton Wanderers had lost an excellent manager in Julen Lopetegui and replaced him with Gary O'Neill, a coach who might have kept Bournemouth from relegation but did not exactly have the Cherries playing football that seemed destined to make the trick repeatable. Also gone were the two midfielders who had defined their generously-funded rise from the Championship -- Joao Moutinho and Ruben Neves -- while the desperate spending to keep them in the division in January left them with precious little money to replace them or to get a new striker to offer what Raul Jimenez once did. This was a team that should have been clinging on for dear life.
For now Wolves are comfortably ensconced in 12th and sit 13th in terms of non-penalty xG difference, a long way clear of a bottom four who already seem destined for their own mini-league as they scrap for survival. O'Neill's men might even be higher than midtable; while 10 games gives us a decent sense of where any team is, this is one who would feel they would be a fair way higher up the table but for refereeing decisions. Anthony Taylor's decision to give a penalty against Hwang Hee-Chan in last weekend's draw at Newcastle was so egregious that he has been demoted from Premier League duty. That is the third time this season an official has made a mistake against Wolves that has cost them their top flight berth. "You need to be careful when you referee Wolves because you could end up getting relegated the following week," joked O'Neill.
Wolves might be higher up the table if it weren't for referees, but they might equally be a fair bit lower if not for scorching hot streaks from their forwards. Pedro Neto ranks seventh in the Premier League for expected assisted goals with 2.7. He has turned that into a league-leading seven assists. Hwang, meanwhile, has reached six goals off just 16 shots worth a combined 2.1 xG. Given his past output, it is a little hard to believe that the best top division scoring start to a season from a Wolves player in 50 years is going to last.
Those two might cool, but one thing O'Neill's Wolves are doing rather well is sharing the burden in attack where Hwang, Fabio Silva, Matheus Cunha, Pablo Sarabia and the returning Sasa Kaladzjic all manage more than two shots per 90. They're probably not going to be a particularly remarkable team throughout the course of this season, but given all the storm clouds that hung over Molineux a few months ago, a fairly mundane campaign should do quite nicely.
3. Tottenham
How could one not include the surprise Premier League leaders, the fanbase who began the season fearing the worst post-Harry Kane, and are now beginning to murmur in hushed tones about a title challenge? Aside from the front-footed football, Ange Postecoglu's most profound impact in north London has been to make Tottenham feel like a destination rather than a waypoint for coaches and players with eyes on brighter lights.
On at least one occasion in the summer, Spurs opted against signing a player because they felt he viewed them as a stepping stone. What business they did do has been vindicated. James Maddison leads the Premier League in chances created, Guglielmo Vicario has prevented the fourth most goals based on Opta's xG model and Micky van de Ven looks to be a coming force among Premier League defenders. Meanwhile Son Heung-Min is back to his xG-busting best (28 shots, 4.29 xG, eight goals). Neither his first against Arsenal nor the one he scored against Liverpool will win many goal of the month contests, but the fact that he can so consistently convert those flicked finishes off either foot gives you every reason to believe that he can contribute an awful lot over the coming months.
This is all so much more than Tottenham could have imagined after the rancour of last season. A team that needed a rebuild have instead carried out a reload, almost immediately reestablishing themselves in the upper echelons of the Premier League that they had fought so hard to reach over the past 15 years. However the sum total of Postecoglu's first season does not yet have the look of a serious title contender. Nor should it, given where Spurs are building from.
The attack looks to be there or thereabouts, at the very least primed to improve if another forward can be found to dovetail with Maddison, Son and a revitalized Dejan Kulusevski. The issue is further back, one indicated by Vicario's impressive 4.3 goals prevented. While Spurs would naturally rather that than another up and down Hugo Lloris season, there is a reason why the Italian is so far ahead of the likes of Ederson and David Raya. The best defenses in the league don't task their goalkeeper with making three saves a game. Similarly, rank defenders by clearances and you will find Cristian Romero and Van de Ven a long time before you spot Ruben Dias or William Saliba. Ultimately Premier League champions tend not to be teams giving up 1.3 xG per game.
That does not, however, preclude anyone from a top four finish. Their xG would suggest that Newcastle might be a superior side, but Spurs have a nine point cushion; even this early in the season that's a decent wedge to have over any team. Aside from the Magpies and the trio of clubs who were viewed as title contenders at the start of the season, no other team is making a compelling case to being better than Tottenham. Champions League qualification would have been quite the surprise. Now it might be more of a shock if they didn't.
