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It was a rough week for oddsmakers as underdogs went 8-4 against the spread in NFL Week 16, and six won outright. The Steelers were the only underdog favored by more than 3.5 to win, as they saw a last-second Lions touchdown negated by penalty to win 29-24 as 7.5-point road underdogs. The Jaguars, Panthers and Patriots all were 3.5-point underdogs but won, and the Los Angeles Chargers routed the Cowboys, who were 1-point home favorites. In NFL Week 17, six teams are favored by at least a touchdown, with two    

The SportsLine Projection Model picks every NFL game each week, and it enters Week 17 on a 53-37 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024.

Here's a look at our favorite NFL spread picks for Week 17.

Best spread picks for NFL Week 17

Commanders +7 vs. Cowboys

Both teams will miss out on the playoffs, but Dallas being eliminated was more surprising simply because Washington has been without quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the league, but both defenses are terrible. The Commanders are at home, and Dallas might be lacking motivation (and possibly giving some different players a look) so the model sees this as a close one. The SportsLine Projection Model says take the Commanders and the points, as they cover the spread 60% of the time and win outright at a 47% rate, bringing value at +261 on the money line.

Chiefs +13.5 vs. Broncos

This is a ton of points, even if the Chiefs are down to Chris Oladokun at quarterback. Kansas City's defense allows only 19.6 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL. The first meeting between the teams ended in a 22-19 Broncos victory, and the model expects this one to be similarly low-scoring. Take the points with the Chiefs, who cover in 58% of the model's simulations.

Jets +13.5 vs. Patriots

New England might be due for a little letdown after consecutive emotional games. First they lost a heartbreaker to the Bills, then they rallied to beat the Ravens, and now they need a victory to stay in the running for the AFC's top seed. The SportsLine Projection Model expects them to get it fairly easily, but it expects the margin to be closer to 10 and has New York covering in 58% of its simulations.

Dolphins +5.5 vs. Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has lost six of its past seven games, and five of its seven victories have been by three points or fewer. The Dolphins are 6-9, but four of their victories have come in the past six weeks. The Bucs defense has looked really vulnerable for several weeks, giving up at least 23 points in all six of their recent losses. The Tampa Bay offense averages 23 points, so the SportsLine Projection Model says take the points on the Dolphins, who are covering in 56% of the model's simulations.

Packers -2.5 vs. Ravens

The Packers will still be smarting from their loss to the Bears, and they'll want to make a statement at Lambeau. The quarterback situation won't be clear until late in the week, but this one comes down to which team is better defensively. That's the Packers, by a long shot. Green Bay gives up the fifth-fewest yards in the NFL, and the Ravens the sixth-most. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Packers covering in 56% of its simulations.