Baylor vs. Hartford odds, line: 2021 NCAA Tournament picks, first-round predictions from proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Hartford vs. Baylor 10,000 times

By CBS Sports Staff

Mar 19, 2021 at 2:15 pm ET • 3 min read

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Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears (22-2) are among the betting favorites to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament. On Friday afternoon, Baylor will take the floor in a first-round matchup against the Hartford Hawks (15-8). Baylor is the No. 1 seed in the South Region, with Hartford as the No. 16 seed. The Hawks are champions of the America East conference, while Baylor won the regular season crown in the Big 12 before faltering against Oklahoma State in the conference tournament.

Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The latest Baylor vs. Hartford odds from William Hill Sportsbook list the Bears as 25.5-point favorites. The over-under for total points is set at 138.5. Before making any Hartford vs. Baylor picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Hartford in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Hartford vs. Baylor:

Baylor vs. Hartford spread: Baylor -25.5
Baylor vs. Hartford over-under: 138.5 points
Baylor vs. Hartford money line: Baylor -4500, Hartford +1500
BAY: The Bears are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
HART: The Hawks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why Baylor can cover

The Bears are led by incredibly high-level guard play, headlined by All-American Jared Butler. Butler is averaging 17.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, providing impressive defense at the point of attack, and converting 43 percent of his 3-point attempts. Davion Mitchell, Adam Flagler and MaCio Teague are also impressive perimeter players for Butler, and they help to lead a team that ranks near the top of the sport on both ends of the floor. Baylor has a top-three offense and, in addition to all of their additional strengths, the Bears can take solace in Hartford's shortcomings on some level.

The Hawks simply aren't as talented as Baylor, and Hartford lands outside the top 250 nationally in offensive efficiency. The Hawks are very poor in both offensive rebounding and free throw creation, leading to a possession edge for Baylor. On the other side, Hartford is a below-average defensive rebounding team, and the Hawks rank near the bottom of college basketball in shot blocking, rejecting only 6.1 percent of shot attempts from opponents this season.

Why Hartford can cover

Hartford is a stout defensive team, landing well above the national average in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hawks are a top-10 team in the county in limiting the 3-point shooting of their opponents (28.7 percent), and that is crucial against an explosive Baylor offense. Hartford is also very strong in preventing opponents from getting to the free throw line, and Baylor is shaky in both free throw creation rate (287th in the country) and free throw accuracy (under 70 percent).

They are also above-average in both shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation. On the other end, Hartford is a strong 2-point shooting team, converting 51.4 percent of its attempts, and the Hawks have a path to second-chance points against a Baylor team that struggles to secure defensive rebounds.

How to make Hartford vs. Baylor picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 146 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Hartford vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.