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vs. NC State in ACC Tournament, 12 ET -- ESPN This is a double bubble game where the loser is almost certainly out of the field. NC State's tournament chances are a product of the NET, which is explained in detail below. Clemson's biggest problem is a lack of quality wins, especially away from home. A win on Wednesday does not guarantee anything -- for either team -- but would be the Tigers best win in that category. | |
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vs. Oklahoma State in Big 12 Tournament, 7 p.m. ET -- ESPNU TCU also limped home, losing six of its last eight. The two wins were big though, coming at home to Iowa State and at Texas. A win on Wednesday puts the Horned Frogs off the bubble and in the field. | |
Bracketology Bubble Watch: NET rankings could pay dividends to power conference teams
The power conferences kick off tournament play on Wednesday and could see some benefits
The final week of the season is upon us. Only the conference tournaments remain for teams hoping to play their way onto the bracket. For some teams, that conference tournament is the only way into the field. For teams on the bubble, the tournament presents one final chance to solidify that resume and get an at-large bid.
St. Mary's -- defeated Gonzaga 60-47 in the West Coast Conference Tournament final: St. Mary's played itself off the bubble and into the field with a win over Gonzaga. The Gaels are the first bid-stealer of the season. Sorry, Furman. Your bubble has popped for now.
Now that a full season is almost in the books, we are starting to see how the NET differs from the RPI, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that the power conferences are the big winners.
In the six power conferences, 55 of the 75 teams are better in the NET than in the RPI. That's 73.3 percent. Only 17 are worse off in the NET.
Compare that to the teams that are most hurt by the NET. Of the 77 teams that are at least 20 places lower in the NET than the RPI, only Arizona State (-28) is from a power conference.
You might think it's the bad teams in the smaller conferences that are most hurt, but that is not the case. It's the better teams. Of the 20 teams most damaged by the NET, seven were regular season champions in their conferences and seven others finished second in their leagues.
The bottom teams in the major conferences are benefitting most, in part because even those teams can post big wins against teams from smaller conferences. The 26 teams that finished at least four games below .500 in league play in the power conferences are an average of 35.3 spots higher in the NET than in the RPI. The fact that those teams are so much better the NET helps everyone in the league once conference games start. Playing the bottom feeders in conference do not hurt nearly as much as it used to.
How will this impact selections? Let's look at two bubble teams from power conferences and compare NET resumes vs RPI.
| NC State (21-10) | NET | RPI |
|---|---|---|
Ranking | 32 | 104 |
Strength of schedule* | 146 | 146 |
Nonconference SOS* | 352 | 352 |
Quadrant 1 record | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Quadrant 2 record | 6-0 | 4-0 |
Quadrant 3 record | 3-2 | 4-2 |
Quadrant 4 record | 10-0 | 12-0 |
* Strength of schedule is still being measured as it was with the RPI. The NET has no SOS output.
To me, the test case for the value of the NET is NC State. The Wolfpack doesn't even get a look if the committee is still using the RPI. The nonconference strength of schedule alone would eliminate them unless they were way off the bubble, which clearly, they are not. That could still be the case this season. Against the top two quadrants, NC State's record drops from 8-8 to 5-8 and they now have a whopping 12 Quadrant 4 wins. The wins over Penn State, Notre Dame, Pitt and Boston College all drop down one quadrant in the RPI.
| Indiana (17-14) | NET | RPI |
|---|---|---|
Ranking | 51 | 82 |
Strength of schedule | 45 | 45 |
Nonconference SOS* | 185 | 185 |
Quadrant 1 record | 6-9 | 5-8 |
Quadrant 2 record | 2-5 | 2-4 |
Quadrant 3 record | 3-0 | 2-2 |
Quadrant 4 record | 6-0 | 8-0 |
* Strength of schedule is still being measured as it was with the RPI. The NET has no SOS output.
Indiana's overall record will be a problem in any system, but the argument over Quadrant 1 wins is diminished a little, and now almost half of their wins are from Quadrant 4. Only one team has ever received an at-large bid that was two games below .500 against the top three quadrants. IU is currently three games below .500 against that group and would be five games under in the RPI. The NET has made an at-large berth possible, if not likely for Indiana. The Hoosiers would have had no chance in the RPI.
















