Two teams with strong national championship aspirations collide Saturday afternoon when No. 3 Purdue visits No. 4 Michigan State at 4 p.m. ET in a nationally televised showdown on ESPN. Michigan State is favored by three points, unchanged from the opening line. The Over-Under, or total number Vegas thinks will be scored, is 148, also unchanged from the open.

Michigan State vs. Purdue will be one of the most-picked games of the day, so you need to see what SportsLine's Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, completely crushed its top-rated college basketball picks last season, returning a profit of almost $6,600 on $100 bets for anybody who followed them.

That wasn't a fluke, either. The model entered Friday on a strong 13-6 run on its top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.

Now it has simulated Purdue vs. Michigan State 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

We can tell you SportsLine's model is leaning Under. In fact, it's hitting in 54 percent of simulations. The model also has a very strong pick for which side of the spread you take, saying you can back it over 60 percent of the time. And you can only see that over at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account Michigan State's strong recent performances. The fourth-ranked Spartans have won seven consecutive games and are a remarkable 16-1 at home this season.

They've done it thanks to an efficient offense. The Spartans, who have scored 74 or more points in six of their last seven games, are averaging 83.7 points.

Michigan State's Miles Bridges has been the catalyst for the Spartans' offense this season. The sophomore guard, who is averaging 17.7 points and 7.3 rebounds, will face a tough task against a stingy Purdue defense.

But just because Michigan State's offense has been explosive thus far this season doesn't mean they can cover the three-point spread.

The Spartans are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games at home against the Boilermakers, while Purdue is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games against Michigan State.

So which side of Purdue-Michigan State do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Purdue-Michigan State spread is cashing over 60 percent of the time, all from the model that has absolutely crushed college hoops, and find out.