Western Kentucky vs. Saint Mary's odds, line: 2021 NIT picks, predictions from proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky 10,000 times

By Scout Staff

Mar 17, 2021 at 2:06 pm ET • 3 min read

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The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Saint Mary's Gaels meet Wednesday in a 2021 NIT first-round matchup at 9 p.m. ET from Comerica Center in Frisco, Tex. Saint Mary's (14-9) is a No. 2 seed in the tournament and making its first NIT appearance since 2018 while Western Kentucky (20-7) is a No. 3 seed and also last played in the National Invitation Tournament in 2018.

Western Kentucky and Saint Mary's have met twice before and split those games. The Gaels are favored by two points in the latest Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 125. Before entering any Western Kentucky vs. Saint Mary's picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saint Mary's vs. WKU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for WKU vs. Saint Mary's:

Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky spread: Saint Mary's -2
Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky over-under: 125 points
Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky money line: Saint Mary's -130, Western Kentucky +110

Why Saint Mary's Will Cover

The Gaels play lockdown defense under head coach Randy Bennett and limit opponents to 62.3 points per game. That led the West Coast Conference and ranked 18th nationally as Saint Mary's does a great job of smothering opponents on the perimeter. Only five teams in the country allowed fewer made 3-pointers per game than Saint Mary's, thus taking away many offense's biggest threat. Even though Saint Mary's was winless in three meetings with Gonzaga, it limited the Zags to 79.3 points per game in those matchups whereas Gonzaga averaged nearly 94 points per game vs. all other opponents.

Saint Mary's is led by its veteran backcourt of Logan Johnson and Tommy Kuhse. Johnson leads the team with 13.5 points per game and he's coming off a poor-shooting game vs. Gonzaga, but poured in 25 points in a WCC Tournament third-round win over LMU. Kuhse is the Gaels' floor leader as he leads the team in assists and steals while ranking second in points. He can get hot in a hurry and scored 34 points on 61 percent shooting in a December victory over Eastern Washington.

Why Western Kentucky Will Cover

WKU won Conference USA's regular season before coming up just short in an overtime loss in the C-USA Tournament Final. The Hilltoppers run an efficient offense that does the little things such as limiting turnovers and making their free throws. They ranked first in their conference in fewest turnovers (15.8 per game) and free throw percentage (78 percent).

On both ends of the court the Hilltoppers revolve around big man Charles Bassey. He is the Conference USA Player of the Year after averaging 17.7 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game. He was a five-star recruit out of high school and is projected to be a first-round NBA draft pick. The Hilltoppers go as he goes as the team went 14-1 when Bussey scored over 15 points but just 5-6 when he scored 15 or fewer.

How to make Western Kentucky vs. Saint Mary's picks

The model has simulated Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Saint Mary's vs. Western Kentucky? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.