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One team will earn a chance to play for the national championship when the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs collide in a 2022 College Football Playoff semifinal on Saturday at the 2022 Fiesta Bowl on Saturday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The Wolverines (13-0) have won nine national titles but haven't won one since splitting the 1997 national championship with Nebraska. This season they've already set a program record in wins. Meanwhile the Horned Frogs (12-1) have won only one national championship, in 1938. They are just the second team to begin the season unranked and reach the CFP. The winner of the Michigan-TCU semifinal will play either Georgia or Ohio State in the CFP championship game on Jan. 9. 

Kickoff is 4 p.m. ET. The Wolverines are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan vs. TCU odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 57. Before locking in any TCU vs. Michigan picks, you need to see the CFP semifinal predictions and Fiesta Bowl betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on the Fiesta Bowl 2022 featuring Michigan vs. TCU and just revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model's college football picks. Now, here are the college football odds and trends for TCU vs. Michigan:  

  • Michigan vs. TCU spread: Wolverines -7.5 
  • Michigan vs. TCU over/under: 57 points 
  • Michigan vs. TCU money line: Wolverines -320, Horned Frogs +250
  • MICH: The Wolverines are third in the nation in total defense (277.1 yards per game) 
  • TCU: The Horned Frogs rank sixth in the country in scoring offense (40.3 points per game) 
  • Michigan vs. TCU picks: See picks here

Why Michigan can cover

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy enters the semifinal game on a roll. A sophomore from La Grange Park, Ill., McCarthy has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two games. Those six touchdowns are his most over any two-game stretch so far this season. On Saturday he faces a vulnerable TCU defense that allows 235.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 84th in the country.

In addition, the Wolverines have a big-play running back in Donovan Edwards. Starting in place for the injured Blake Corum (knee), Edwards leads the country in average yards per carry (7.45). He has Michigan's two longest runs of the season (85 and 75 yards) and faces a Horned Frogs defense that has given up more than 200 yards on the ground in two of the last three games. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why TCU can cover

TCU has a big-play receiver in Quentin Johnston. A rare combination of size and athleticism who is widely projected to be a first-round pick in next year's NFL draft, Johnston either leads the team or is tied for the team lead in receptions (53), receiving yards (903) and receiving touchdowns (five). His 18.7 career yards per catch average is second among active FBS players, trailing only Oklahoma's Marvin Mims (19.2).

In addition, linebacker Dee Winters is a tackling machine for the Horned Frogs defense. A 6-foot-1, 230-pound senior, Winters leads the team in tackles for loss (11.5), sacks (7.5) and quarterback hurries (seven). He also has 232 career tackles, tops among current Horned Frogs. For his efforts this season he earned all-Big 12 first team honors. See who to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Michigan vs. TCU picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 64 points. It also has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in almost 60% of simulations. You can see the model's TCU vs. Michigan Fiesta Bowl pick only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Fiesta Bowl and Michigan vs. TCU? And which side is covering almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the TCU vs. Michigan spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $2,500 the last six-plus years, and find out.