Best bets for the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl, and a New Year's Day NBA parlay

Happy New Year! I hope your New Year's Eve was nice and that you're not too bleary-eyed as you read this today. And, if you are, that's fine too. It's New Year's Day. It's understandable.

The year is only a few hours old, and I've already come to a realization about 2021. It's too much to say. Saying 2020 was easy, and it rolled off the tongue, but there's something about saying "twenty-twenty-one" that's too much, so I'm taking a stand. I'm going to refer to the year only as '21. I mean, we refer to specific years in the 1980s and 1990s as "85" or "97," and it's about time we started doing so with the 21st century. We're deep enough in it now where it's acceptable.

So, join me in this effort. When somebody asks you what year it is, you can formally say it is 2021, but people should probably (hopefully) know what year it is by Wednesday. So, after that, it's just '21. Agreed? Good.

Now let's catch up on some reading and then dive into a weekend's worth of picks for you.

Now let's start '21 off right. With winners.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 68.5 (-110): I'm expecting the Buckeyes offense to struggle, but that doesn't mean I think the Tigers offense will run rampant, either. Ohio State has a strong pass rush as well and can get pressure on Lawrence. If Ohio State's defense has a weakness, it's allowing big plays in the passing game. The Buckeyes defense ranks 46th nationally in defensive pass efficiency.

That's not bad, but when we look at deep passes of 20 air yards or more, Ohio State's defensive pass efficiency balloons to 227.4, ranking 112th nationally. That's a problem! It might not be as big a problem as you think, though, because you might be surprised to learn that Lawrence isn't Superman when it comes to vertical passing. His completion rate of 40.9% on passes of 20 air yards or more isn't bad, but it's not great, either, ranking 38th nationally.

Ultimately, when I break this game down in my mind, I feel like it only goes over this total when Ohio State wins. When Clemson wins, it's either going to be a close, defensive struggle or Clemson's going to smother the Ohio State offense and win by multiple touchdowns. Well, I think Clemson wins more often than not, and this total is rarely threatened. It'll play out similarly to what we saw last year -- though, hopefully, the officials aren't a story -- and that was a 29-23 game that finished well below the total here.

Key Trend: The under is 5-1 in Clemson's last six neutral site games when it is favored.

Check out our experts on The Early Edge podcast -- download and subscribe on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or listen below:

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Barrett Sallee is 11-2 in his last 13 against-the-spread picks involving the Tigers, and he's locked in another strong play for Clemson vs. Ohio State.

💰 The Picks

🏈 College Football

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame, 4 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Alabama -19.5 (-110) -- Alabama has been the best team in the country all season long, and it's hard to imagine things being any different in the CFP. We're talking about a team with two Heisman Trophy finalists in quarterback Mac Jones and receiver DeVonta Smith, as well as a top-five finisher in running back Najee Harris. It's no wonder this team scored 49.7 points per game.

What's even more impressive about that average is that Alabama never failed to score fewer than 38 points in any game and that 38 came in the season-opener against Missouri. Once it got the carbon cleared out of its engine, Alabama's offense scored at least 40 in its last 10 games, including six where it scored at least 50 (with two 63-point performances). While Notre Dame absolutely deserves to be in this playoff, it's hard to imagine the Irish will be able to stop Alabama.

Defensively, the Fighting Irish rank ninth nationally in SP+, but I'm not sure that matters. Georgia ranks first, and Alabama put up 41 against it. Texas A&M ranks 20th, and Bama put 52 on it. On the flip side, Alabama's "weakness" has been a defense that ranks seventh in SP+. A defense that has only been exploited by the passing attacks of Florida and Ole Miss. I don't think this Notre Dame offense has the kind of playmakers in the passing game needed to hurt this Alabama defense. If the Irish aren't likely to stop the Tide offense and aren't likely to keep up with their offense, it's hard to ask it to cover the spread. Even when it's this large.

Key Trend: Alabama has covered in seven of its last eight games.

No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 North Carolina, Saturday, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Texas A&M -7.5 (-105) -- One of the trickier aspects of picking bowl games these days is keeping track of which players are opting out and then determining how much of an impact that will have on the game. You want to find the balance between taking it seriously while not overreacting. It's not easy, and in this column, you will see both sides of it.

In this matchup, we have a North Carolina team that is entirely dependent on its offense to win games. That's not to say that the defense is bad (it's more above average than good, though), just that its offense is prolific. Unfortunately, a lot of that offense will be missing for this contest. The Heels will be without leading receiver Dyami Brown, as well as leading rushers Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Between the three of them, that's 4,056 yards of offense and 41 touchdowns. That's a lot! The Tar Heels will also be without leading tackler Chazz Surratt on defense to make matters worse.

Texas A&M hasn't had anybody of note opt out of the game yet. Now, against a lesser opponent, maybe I'd trust Sam Howell and the North Carolina offense to persevere without so many top players. But against this Texas A&M team? With a defense ranked 20th in SP+? This isn't an overreaction -- it's just common sense. Lay the points.

Key Trend: A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 nonconference games.

🏈 NFL

Falcons at Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: Fox
The Pick: Bucs -7 (-110) -- When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, Atlanta jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first half. Then halftime came, and everything changed. Tampa scored on its first five possessions of the second half, coming back from 17 points down to beat the Falcons 31-27. Nobody could believe it. Tom Brady leading an epic comeback against Atlanta? When does that ever happen?

Anyway, I'd expect this game to be more like the second half of that game. Atlanta has nothing to play for, and while Tampa cannot win the division and has a playoff berth sewn up, it does have the motivation to win. As of now, the Bucs are in the fifth seed in the NFC. A win would keep them there. That's huge because, even if the Bucs can't get a home game in the playoffs, being the fifth seed means you play the NFC East winner. If given the choice of playing the NFC East champion (Washington, Dallas or New York) or one of Seattle or New Orleans, I know which route I'd prefer!

Key Trend: The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Packers at Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m | TV: Fox
The Pick: Packers -4.5 (-105) -- My life as a fan of the Chicago Bears has been nothing but torture. First, I had Brett Favre ruining my childhood and adolescence. Then I grew up, and it was Aaron Rodgers' turn to make sure being an adult Bears fan wouldn't be any easier. Now, here we are again, with the Bears' season on the line and all they have to do is beat Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Terrific.

Listen, the Bears are having a resurgence right now. They've won three straight games and have scored 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since like 1785. That's all well and good, but it's not like Mitch Trubisky has taken his game to another level. They've just played four bad teams! Now they're facing a Packers team hoping to secure a first-round bye with a win. Oh, and did you know that Rodgers isn't just content to beat the Bears on the field, but against the spread too? He's 17-7 ATS against them in his career. The next chapter of my nightmare starts on Sunday afternoon.

Key Trend: The Packers are 17-7 ATS in games against the Bears when Aaron Rodgers starts.

Titans at Texans, Sunday, 4:25 p.m | TV: CBS
The Pick: Texans +7.5 (-110) -- Were you really that surprised to see the Tennessee Titans get torn apart by Green Bay last week? You shouldn't have been. The Tennessee defense stinks. It ranks 30th in the NFL in defensive DVOA, and any time it comes across a halfway decent offense, it hemorrhages points. Over Tennessee's last seven games, it's allowing 28.6 points per game. If you remove the Jacksonville game because Jacksonville is awful, that number goes up to 31.7 points per game in the last six.

While Houston isn't good and doesn't have a whole lot to play for, it does have a decent offense that ranks 13th in the NFL in DVOA. Well, I'm not trusting this Titans team as a road favorite of more than a touchdown against an offense that's capable of moving the ball. Particularly within its division. It's going to be a bumpy ride, I'm sure, but it's the correct play.

Key Trend: The home team has covered seven of the last nine meetings.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine and Alabama expert Emory Hunt is 9-1 in his last 10 spread picks involving the Crimson Tide, and he has another confident pick for Friday's CFP Semifinal Game between Alabama and Notre Dame.