Best, worst college football coaches in close games from each conference
In order to win big in college football, you must overcome tough tests that usually show up in the form of close games. These coaches are the best and worst at winning those nail-biters.
By
Jon Solomon
•
8 min read
Close games in college football can occur when you least expect them. They can be the difference between a good season or a special season, a New Year’s Day bowl or a late-December bowl, and a contract extension or a pink slip.
In 2014, eventual national champion Ohio State’s closest win came in overtime against Penn State two weeks before a highly-anticipated showdown against Michigan State. Fellow playoff teams Florida State and Alabama each survived several tight contests, while Oregon reached the College Football Playoff without any wins either in overtime or by four points or less. Meanwhile, TCU dropped one close game too many to Baylor and stayed home from the playoff.
More than likely, a handful of close games will decide teams’ fates again in 2015. Which coaches do you most want on the sideline in a tight game? The answers can be cyclical, of course. Some coaches have a smaller body of work than others and competitive losses as an underdog can skew records.
Nonetheless, through statistics provided by SportSource Analytics, plus my observations, these are the best and worst coaches in close games.
The statistics in parentheses represent a coach’s record and win percentage in games decided by four points or less while in the FBS. Current Power Five coaches have a combined .529 win percentage in those types of games, so that’s the magic number to at least be in the middle of the pack.
SEC
Best: Nick Saban, Alabama (24-15-1, .613). Saban will forever be remembered for adding one second onto the clock for the “Kick Six” loss to Auburn in 2013. Interestingly, he’s only 15-13 in one-possession games at Alabama. But Saban’s track record suggests he’s the SEC's best bet when it’s close, and he’s a good example of how coaching reputations can be enhanced over time. Saban was 6-9-1 in games decided by four points or less from 1990 to 2000. He is 18-6 in those games since winning his first SEC title in 2001, the second-best record among active Power Five coaches over that period.
Worst: Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss (4-5, .444). Admittedly, it’s a small body of work, but Freeze didn’t help himself when the Rebels tossed an ill-advised interception at the end of their loss to LSU in 2014. “I really would do nothing different,” Freeze said. “It’s nine seconds left, your kicker is standing there saying, ’It’s 48 yards (for a field goal), I’m going to have to swing at it, I want it on the left hash, any chance you can get it there?’ You have a chance to try to throw a hitch to the sideline and get it there. Maybe I needed to communicate harder, firmer and help our quarterback (Bo Wallace) handle an adverse situation a little better.”
The rest: If you’re judging by one-possession games, no one is better with a large body of work than Les Miles, who has a strong .673 winning percentage in those contests while at LSU and .638 for his career. … Auburn’s Gus Malzahn leads current Power Five coaches in winning percentage for one-possession games (13-3, .813). He’s probably due to see that mark slip some. … Arkansas’ Bret Bielema has lost 11 straight one-possession games, dating to a Wisconsin win over Utah State on Sept. 15, 2012. Bielema began his career 21-12 in one-possession games. “It comes down to depth, experience and confidence,” he said.
Big Ten
Best: Urban Meyer, Ohio State (13-8, .619). Meyer ranks 10th nationally in games decided by four points or less and fourth in one-possession games, in which he’s an absurd 11-1 (.917) at Ohio State and 32-12 (.727) for his career. Meyer isn’t afraid to be bold in big games. Last season, he called a double-reverse touchdown pass by wide receiver Evan Spencer at the end of the first half in the semifinal win over Alabama.
Worst: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (20-30, .400). Among active Power Five coaches, Ferentz has the worst close-game record given his large sample size. During Iowa’s four 10-win seasons (2002-04 and 2009), Ferentz went 9-1 in games decided by four points or less. He’s 11-29 (.275) in those games for the rest of his FBS career -- a remarkably poor record. Ferentz is very fortunate he landed his big contract when he did.
The rest: Technically, Penn State’s James Franklin is the Big Ten’s best in games decided by four points or less (10-5, .667). I picked Meyer because of his larger body of work and since many of Franklin’s close wins have come against mediocre-to-bad teams. … Indiana’s Kevin Wilson has the worst record among Power Five coaches in games decided by four points or less (2-8, .200). … Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio is 15-7 (.682) in one-possession games since 2010 after starting his Spartans career 6-12 in those games. … On the flip side, Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald is 3-8 in one-possession games over the past two years after going 26-13 during the Wildcats’ revival from 2006 to 2012.
Big 12
Best: Gary Patterson, TCU (23-16, .590). Patterson is an interesting example of how winning close games isn’t the end-all, be-all if you can blow teams out. He has the best body of work in the Big 12 for close games given a large sample size, but he’s 7-8 in games decided by four points or less since 2010 (three of those losses are against Baylor). Patterson went a combined 4-1 in close games during TCU’s two seasons when it won the Rose Bowl and nearly made the College Football Playoff.
Worst: Bob Stoops, Oklahoma (13-15, .464). Since 2001, Big Game Bob ranks last in the Big 12 for games decided by four points or less. That’s an unsettling stat for a past national championship coach. The other five active Power Five coaches who have won a national title -- Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer, Les Miles and Steve Spurrier -- are a combined .623 in games decided by four points or less. All of them reside at .548 or higher.
The rest: Kansas State’s Bill Snyder was 28-26-1 (.518) in one-possession games during his first stint in Manhattan. Since returning, he’s 19-9 (.679). … West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen is 7-4 (.636) in games decided by four points or less and 21-19 (.525) in all other games. … Get Baylor’s Art Briles and his prolific offense in a close game and your chances increase of winning. Briles is 12-11 (.522) in games decided by four points or less and 25-26 (.490) in one-possession games.
Pac-12
Best: Jim Mora Jr., UCLA (4-2, .667). Mora hasn’t had many really close games yet in college, but he was 11-7 as an NFL head coach in games decided by four points or less. In college games decided by one possession, Mora is 12-4 (.750). That’s the third-best mark among active Power Five coaches and the type of stat that suggests Mora could be a rising star. For now, it’s enough to give him the nod in a talented but relatively new group of Pac-12 coaches.
Worst: David Shaw, Stanford (6-7, .462). Shaw ranks last among Pac-12 coaches in games decided by four points or less -- a stark contrast to his .778 overall winning percentage. Jim Harbaugh went 5-3 (.625) in these types of games at Stanford before leaving. It’s still a small sample size for Shaw, but he’s at a school where winning a fair share of close games is vital to be very successful.
The rest: Technically, USC’s Steve Sarkisian leads the Pac-12 in games decided by four points or less (11-6, .647). He ranks sixth nationally in the category. … With very little fanfare, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham ranks eighth nationally in games decided by four points or less (19-11, .633). Last year Utah had tight wins over proverbial favorites USC, UCLA and Stanford.
ACC
Best: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State (8-4, .667). Fisher wrote the book last season on how to win close games, going 7-0 in one-possession contests. That’s an absurdly high single-season rate. With Jameis Winston now gone, there’s nowhere to go but down for Fisher in close games. Still, Fisher has won 10 straight one-possession games, with the last loss coming against North Carolina State in 2012.
Worst: Al Golden, Miami (11-12, .478). To be fair, Golden’s mediocre success rate in close games can be partially attributed to starting his career at Temple and inheriting NCAA sanctions at Miami. Will more scholarship depth help Miami win tight games, or is this who Golden is as a coach?
The rest: You’ll never guess which ACC coach is the active Power Five leader in games decided by four points or less. That would be NC State’s Dave Doeren (7-2, .778). He’s 13-4 (.765) in one-possession games and 21-15 (.583) in all other games. … Virginia’s Mike London is 8-6 (.571) in games decided by four points or less and 15-32 (.319) in all other games. … Let’s end this story with hope for anyone who has a poor close-game record. Virginia Tech’s Frank Beamer is 26-32-2 (.450) in games decided by four points or less, offering rare proof that a long, successful career is possible despite more tight losses than tight wins. But since Beamer is the anomaly, coaches might want to win close games just in case.
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