One of the biggest problems with the College Football Playoff releasing rankings during the regular season is that it leads to a lot of people believing certain teams have no chance of making the playoff based on where they're ranked in any given week. It's a natural reaction for college football fans, as we've all grown accustomed to a certain poll mentality, seeing how polls have been used to settle the sport's champion for so long.

For instance, in the AP Top 25, there's a simple philosophy. If a team is ranked No. 3 one week, it's not going to drop down the rankings if it wins, only if it loses. That's not the case with the CFP Rankings. The committee's rankings are fluid.

That means the selection committee starts over every single week, updating the rankings to include all the latest information. So if you're No. 3 right now, you can be No. 5 next week even if you won your latest game by 52 points. Don't believe me? Just ask TCU in 2014.

It's also important to remember that the committee emphasizes conference champions, so no matter where you're ranked right now, if you're still alive for your conference title, you're alive for a playoff berth too. You just might need a lot more help than others.

Granted, it's better to be in the top four than outside of it, but it's only temporary. Both Clemson and Miami are there now, but they're also scheduled to meet in the ACC title game, and there's a very good chance the loser of that game won't be in the top four afterward. That means somebody is more than likely to move up.

So, with the top four still a bit fluid, let's take a look at the teams that are currently on the outside looking in and their chances of still making it into the playoff. We'll start with No. 5 and work our way down.

No. 5 Wisconsin (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten)

Top 25 Wins: No. 23 Northwestern
Losses: None

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. No. 24 Michigan, at Minnesota, Big Ten Championship

What needs to happen: Wisconsin's path is pretty simple. With one of the teams above them guaranteed to lose, all the Badgers need to do is win their final two games and then win the Big Ten Championship Game against their most likely opponent in Ohio State.

Will they get in: Well, the path is simple, but doing it won't be. Now, to be clear, I think Wisconsin is a much better team than most want to give it credit for, and I do believe it's going to get to the Big Ten Championship with a 12-0 record. What concerns me is whether or not this team is good enough to beat Ohio State once it gets there. Chance: 45 percent

No. 6 Auburn (8-2, 6-1 SEC)

Top 25 Wins: No. 16 Mississippi State, No. 7 Georgia
Losses: No. 2 Clemson, No. 20 LSU

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. UL-Monroe, vs. No. 1 Alabama

What needs to happen: Auburn's path to the playoff is simple as well. It just needs to win out. If the Tigers get past UL-Monroe (they should), they'll then be hosting Alabama the following week in the Iron Bowl with the winner of that game claiming the SEC West. So an Auburn win would then send it to Atlanta for a rematch with Georgia and if the Tigers finish 11-2 with two wins over Georgia and a win over Alabama in their last four games, they're going to get in.

Will they get in: That's a tall order! Getting past Alabama will be enough of a challenge, but beating Georgia twice only makes it more difficult. It's not easy beating the same team twice in a season, let alone within a month of doing it. Chance: 33 percent

No. 7 Georgia (9-1, 6-1 SEC)

Top 25 Wins: No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 16 Mississippi State
Losses: No. 6 Auburn

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. Kentucky, at Georgia Tech

What needs to happen: Georgia is going to need a little help, believe it or not. With games left against Kentucky and Georgia Tech, the Dawgs don't have a chance to add a resume win before getting to the SEC title game. That means Georgia's case would be helped out if both Notre Dame and Mississippi State finish the season strong to maintain their standing in the committee's eyes.

Also, I don't know how big a difference it would make, but I think Georgia is better off if Alabama wins the Iron Bowl. While Auburn would be ranked highly if it reaches the SEC title game, I think beating an undefeated Alabama would impress the committee more than winning a rematch against a two-loss Auburn.

Will they get in: Win out and win the SEC, and Georgia is in. Given the injuries on Alabama's defense, I don't think that's as difficult now as it was a few weeks ago, even after Georgia's loss. Chance: 40 percent

No. 8 Notre Dame (8-2)

Top 25 Wins: No. 17 Michigan State, No. 11 USC, No. 19 NC State
Losses: No. 3 Miami

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. Navy, at No. 22 Stanford

What needs to happen: I've seen plenty of people write off Notre Dame's chances following the Miami loss, and for the most part, I'm there with them. The lack of a conference title game hurts the Irish right now because it gives them one less shot at a resume win. Of course, Notre Dame already has an impressive resume.

It has three wins over teams currently in the top 25. Only one other team outside the top four can say the same, and should Stanford have a strong finish, the Irish might add a fourth. Now, obviously, winning out won't be enough. The Irish would need their wins to stay ranked, but they don't want USC winning the Pac-12, either. So, ideally, Notre Dame would beat Stanford, but Stanford would also win the Pac-12 North and beat USC in the Pac-12 title game.

Also, if Miami wins out, that improves Notre Dame's chances, too.

Will they get in: I doubt it. They aren't as dead as some will have you believe, but there's not much of a pulse here, either. Chance: 5 percent

No. 9 Ohio State (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten)

Top 25 Wins: No. 10 Penn State, No. 17 Michigan State
Losses: No. 4 Oklahoma, Iowa

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. Illinois, at No. 24 Michigan

What needs to happen: It's complicated. The simple part is that Ohio State needs to win out and then win the Big Ten title. I just don't know what's better for it in games outside of its control.

Like, would it be better for Ohio State if Michigan beat Wisconsin this weekend and stayed in the top 25, and then the Buckeyes beat a one-loss Wisconsin team in Indianapolis? Or is it better if Wisconsin stays undefeated and Ohio State beats it in the Big Ten title game? The former scenario would give the Buckeyes four wins over ranked opponents, while the latter leaves them with only three, but one of them would be against an unbeaten Wisconsin.

It's hard to know for sure, but it would also be nice if Oklahoma and Iowa kept winning too.

Will they get in: There's a part of me that believes if Ohio State wins out and wins the Big Ten that the committee will want to put them in the top four. I mean, they were willing to do it last year when the Buckeyes didn't win their conference. What causes me to hesitate is not the fact that Ohio State lost two games -- I think the committee can look past that -- but the fashion in which they happened. A 15-point loss at home and a 31-point loss on the road is a bad look, and one that could keep Ohio State out. Chance: 25 percent

No. 10 Penn State (8-2, 5-2 Big Ten)

Top 25 Wins: No. 24 Michigan, No. 23 Northwestern
Losses: No. 9 Ohio State, No. 17 Michigan State

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. Nebraska, at Maryland

What needs to happen: Too much. As a two-loss team, Penn State isn't getting into the CFP without winning the Big Ten. To win the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions would not only need to win their final two games, but they'd need Ohio State to lose its final two games against Illinois and Michigan, and for Michigan State to lose one of its games against Maryland and Rutgers.

Will they get in: Do you think Ohio State's going to lose to Illinois? Chance: < 1 percent

No. 11 USC (9-2, 7-1 Pac-12)

Top 25 Wins: No. 22 Stanford 
Losses: No. 14 Washington State, No. 8 Notre Dame

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. UCLA, Pac-12 Championship

What needs to happen: Well, as is always the case, USC needs to beat UCLA and then win the Pac-12. I'm not entirely sure which team it would be best for USC to face in the Pac-12 title game, but I'm leaning Washington or Washington State because beating Stanford twice might not be impressive enough. That being said, I'm not sure why the CFP has this team ranked as highly as it does considering its best win is Stanford, and it has a 35-point loss to Notre Dame, but I digress.

The Trojans could also use help elsewhere, obviously. It needs other teams to lose because it's not the most impressive two-loss team in the country. Alabama winning out would be a boost because that takes Georgia and Auburn out of the picture. Stanford beating Notre Dame would be good, too. The Trojans will also want to see Wisconsin win out and beat Ohio State. Miami winning out would be great too, because then you have undefeated Alabama, Wisconsin and Miami taking three spots. So if all of that happens, and Oklahoma loses another game, now USC has a real shot as a two-loss Pac-12 champion on a winning streak to sneak into the top four. Of course, even then, nothing is guaranteed.

Will they get in: I don't think so, but they aren't dead yet. Chance: 5 percent

No. 12 TCU (8-2, 5-2 Big 12)

Top 25 Wins: No. 13 Oklahoma State
Losses: Iowa State, No. 4 Oklahoma

Remaining games (must-wins): at Texas Tech, vs. Baylor

What needs to happen: Neither of TCU's last two games will help its resume, but they must win them to get a spot in the Big 12 championship. They'd face Oklahoma there in all likelihood, and a win over the Sooners would improve TCU's stock. I just don't know if it would improve things enough to send the Horned Frogs to the playoff. Given their current place on the two-loss team totem poll, they'd need a lot of help elsewhere. It's similar to the kind of help USC needs that I detailed above, but the Frogs need USC to lose too.

Will they get in: I very much doubt it. Chance: 2 percent

No. 13 Oklahoma State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12)

Top 25 Wins: None
Losses: No. 12 TCU, No. 4 Oklahoma

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. Kansas State, vs. Kansas

What needs to happen: Oklahoma State's in a position similar to TCU's, but worse. Unlike the Horned Frogs, Oklahoma State doesn't have a top 25 win. So if West Virginia could win out, that'd be great. Even then, the Cowboys need to win their final two games and then hope TCU loses to either Texas Tech or Baylor. It's not impossible, but it isn't all that likely, either. Without that, the Cowboys would need Oklahoma to lose to both Kansas and West Virginia, and we know that isn't happening.

Still, if TCU drops another game, and Oklahoma State wins out, it'll reach the Big 12 championship and have a chance to beat Oklahoma. That would help its cause, but it would still need a lot more help outside the Big 12, too.

Will they get in: Nope. Not enough wins. Chance: < 1 percent

No. 14 Washington State (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12)

Top 25 Wins: No. 25 Boise State, No. 11 USC, No. 22 Stanford
Losses: California, Arizona

Remaining games (must-wins): at No. 18 Washington

What needs to happen: Washington State's case is a lot simpler than many of the teams currently ranked ahead of it. It needs to win the Apple Cup to reach the Pac-12 title game. Doing so would give it four wins over teams that are currently ranked. Then it would need to beat USC in the title game, giving it five wins against ranked teams. That's a lot of top 25 wins.

Washington State would also need teams like Clemson, Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, etc. to all lose another game or two as well to increase its odds.

Will they get in: It's not as complicated a path, but I still don't see it happening. Washington State has the wins, yes, but it also has a 34-point loss to Cal and a 21-point loss to Arizona. The committee isn't going to look past that. Chance: 1 percent

No. 18 Washington (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12)

Top 25 Wins: None
Losses: Arizona State, No. 22 Stanford

Remaining games (must-wins): vs. Utah, vs. No. 14 Washington State

What needs to happen: The loss to Stanford didn't kill Washington's chances. At least not all the way. As hard as it is to believe, there's still life here. Washington's resume is non-existent at the moment, but if it wins out, it'll add a wins over No. 14 Washington State and No. 11 USC in the Pac-12 title game. Of course, to get to the Pac-12 title game, Washington also needs Stanford to lose to California. Not likely, but Cal did beat Wazzu, and it is a rivalry game.

Will those wins be enough? Not without a lot of help elsewhere, obviously, but Washington is helped out by the fact that neither of its two losses were blowouts, and both were on the road. Close losses on the road are easier to forgive than blowout losses, but having said that, better nonconference wins would help a lot more.

Will they get in: Highly doubtful, but they have a better shot than you probably thought. Chance: 5 percent

No. 24 Michigan (8-2, 5-2 Big Ten)

Top 25 Wins: None
Losses: No. 10 Penn State, No. 17 Michigan State

Remaining games (must-wins): at No. 5 Wisconsin, vs. No. 9 Ohio State

What needs to happen: Surprise! Bet you didn't expect to see Michigan here, but it's still technically alive. You see, Michigan has no big wins yet, but it has two big targets left on its schedule. Should Michigan manage to beat both Wisconsin and Ohio State, it suddenly becomes an impressive season for the Wolverines.

That won't be enough, though, as Michigan would still need to win the Big Ten to have a real shot. For that to happen, however, the Wolverines would also need both Penn State (Nebraska, at Maryland) and Michigan State (Maryland, at Rutgers) to lose another game. Of course, we can't forget that those losses would also weaken Michigan's resume a little since the Wolverines lost to both of them too.

And, even if all that happens, Michigan would still need help elsewhere. Losses from Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn, Notre Dame, USC and others would help the cause too.

Will they get in: Have you watched Michigan this season? Chance: < 1 percent

No. 15 UCF (9-0, 6-0 American)

T25 Wins: No. 21 Memphis
Losses: None

Remaining games (must-wins): at Temple, vs. South Florida

What needs to happen: The Power Five conferences must all of a sudden decide that they want to share their gigantic revenue pie with a sixth partner and officially welcome the American Athletic Conference into the fold.

Oh, and UCF needs to win out and win the AAC, going 13-0.

Will they get in: Nope. Not a chance. I'm sorry, UCF. I include you in this post only because you deserve that much respect for what you've done this year, and for what you might do from here on out. But you have no chance of getting into the playoff no matter what happens. This system just isn't set up for you to reach the mountaintop. Not without sustaining a few years of excellence first. Go undefeated again next season and maybe you'll have a shot, and even then I don't like your odds all that much. Chance: Zero percent