Simulation: Marshall finishes 7-5 with Mississippi State's schedule
PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of Marshall playing Mississippi State's schedule.
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1 min read
Many expect Marshall to finish the season undefeated but with just a few weeks left in the regular season, the Thundering Herd aren't close to the four-team College Football Playoff. Since ECU's loss at Temple, no teams from outside the power conferences have been ranked in the selection committee's Top 25.
As Marshall continues to win, wild hypotheticals will be mentioned as the selection committee tries not only to choose the four best teams but hand out a bowl bid to the highest ranking conference champion from the Group of 5.
Our friends at PredictionMachine.com, regular participants in our expert picks, have posted the results of another simulation using Mississippi State's schedule as the grading scale. Last month, the simulation results showed an average of a 8.3-3.7 record for Florida State against Mississippi State's schedule. On Thursday, Paul Bessire and Jon Ewing turned their attention to Marshall.
On average, Marshall would finish with a win/loss record of 7.0-5.0. Against tougher competition the Herd's scoring average would drop to 32.1 points per game, a difference of more than two touchdowns from its current scoring average.
Marshall's finish is not far off from FSU's, so next came 50,000 simulations of Florida State vs. Marshall on a neutral field.
On a neutral field, Florida State against Marshall is a close game. The defending champions are the projected favorites but not the prohibitive choice. The Seminoles win 55 percent of the time by an average score of 31-28.
Marshall's schedule ranks as one of the easiest in the country. That is not totally something the Herd can control, but even the non-conference schedule [Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio and Akron] ranks as one of the more favorable slates in the country.
What Marshall can control is its own record this season, and avoiding the same unexpected loss that knocked ECU from its pole position for a bid to one of the College Football Playoff access bowls. The committee is looking for a conference champion, so even a very good one-loss Colorado State team won't be in contention unless it can get to the MW title game, and right now Boise State owns that head-to-head tiebreaker.
