| ||||||||||
2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Eight Statcast Stats And Whether Or Not They Matter
As we continue to use Statcast data, it's our responsibility to figure out what's relevant. Here are eight stats and a verdict for each.
•
7 min read
Consider this your brief break from the MLB proposal. Baseball is inching closer. As Fantasy owners, we need to be ready when the season is announced. One way to do that is to keep our minds stimulated with random Statcast stats… I think? We need to continue evaluating players and figuring out whether the underlying metrics mean anything or not.
You hear and see Statcast data thrown around often. It makes sense to take a step back and realize what all of it means. Only then can you come to a conclusion on whether or not the stat is relevant for the player and Fantasy baseball. Let's take a look at eight stats from the 2019 season.
C.J. Cron's 10.6% barrels per plate appearance ranked sixth best in baseball last season
We have a good idea of who Cron is at this point in his career but that doesn't mean he can't be helpful. Over the past two seasons, Cron has hit 55 home runs. In 2019, he hit 25 home runs in just 125 games. That's a 32-homer pace over 162 games. His expected slugging percentage also tells us we should expect more frequent extra-base hits in 2020. Cron slugged .469 last season while his .548 xSLG ranked in the 91st percentile. When Cron puts the ball in play, good things should happen. His ADP is currently 249.6, which means he could be had as a corner infielder in deeper Roto leagues. He's a great source of power that late in drafts.
Verdict: This stat matters but more so for deeper leagues.
| ||||||||||
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the hardest hit ball in 2019 (118.9 MPH)
When I brought this up on yesterday's Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Chris Towers did me one better. He added that Guerrero led the MLB in batted balls over 115 MPH. Perhaps these are the reminders we need to blindly trust Guerrero, much like we did Rafael Devers last season. Guerrero was starting to put it together in July and August last season. Over that two-month span, he hit .313 with seven home runs and a .902 OPS. He also needs to continue raising his launch angle. A 49.6% ground ball rate and a 6.7 average launch angle will not get it done. For what it's worth, there were reports back in February that Guerrero was consciously working to hit more line drives and fly balls. His 58.8 ADP is a steep price to pay but that comes with the pedigree and untapped potential. He's not my main target at third base but somebody I would like a few shares of.
Verdict: Definitely matters. Guerrero flashes his immense upside with these hard-hit baseballs. He just needs to develop consistency and raise his launch angle a bit.
| ||||||||||
Justin Smoak had the second biggest difference between his BA and xBA and the biggest difference between his SLG and xSLG among qualified batters
Frankly put, Justin Smoak was unlucky. Statcast takes a player's batted ball data and, based on many factors (exit velocity, launch angle, etc.), spits out an expected batting average. Well, Smoak hit just .208 last season with a .250 xBA. The same can be seen in his .406 SLG and .495 xSLG. Smoak had a standout 2017 when hit batted .270 with 38 home runs and 90 RBI. He finished as a Top-11 first baseman in both Roto and H2H points that season. It's been downhill ever since. He does what you like to see in a power hitter, however. In 2019, he posted a 42% hard contact rate to go along with a 42% fly ball rate. Smoak is a lot like Cron in that he can offer power late in drafts. With rumors of the universal DH this season, that's even more reason to like Smoak at his 379 ADP.
Verdict: This matters in a C.J. Cron kind of way, with potentially even more profitability.
| ||||||||||
Danny Jansen had the third biggest difference between his BA and xBA and the sixth biggest difference between his SLG and xSLG among qualified batters
Like his former teammate, Danny Jansen suffered from bad luck in 2019, according to Statcast. Let's not completely bury the former catching prospect already. He's just 25 years old and got off to a rough start last season. Through his first 31 games, he was batting just .160 with four extra-base hits. From May 17 on, he hit 13 home runs with a .194 ISO over 277 plate appearances. There's no reason to think Jansen can't provide power as a second catcher in Roto leagues. He also got off to a blistering start in spring training. In 20 plate appearances, he was batting .529 with four home runs and 13 RBI. Jansen is basically free at his current ADP of 294.4. Based on his plate discipline in the minors, it wouldn't surprise me if he plays himself into relevance in one-catcher leagues as well.
Verdict: This definitely matters. Catchers are like the tight end position in Fantasy Football. It's a very top heavy position and difficult to find standouts later on in the draft.
| ||||||||||
Ronald Acuña slugged .518 while his xSLG was .572
This one is simple yet astounding. Acuña was 21 years old last season. 21! The kid hit 41 home runs with 37 steals and led the National League with 127 runs scored. How much better can he get? Well, according to Statcast, a decent bit. Now we know he won't approach numbers like this in an 80-game season but it wouldn't surprise me if his pace numbers were something like 50 home runs and 50 steals. He's that good. Mike Trout will go down as one of the best who ever played the game. In 2020, however, Acuña is my number one player in Roto. He takes a slight hit in H2H points leagues but shouldn't fall past the middle of the first round in that format.
Verdict: Doesn't matter much but rather a friendly reminder that Acuña can be even better.
| ||||||||||
Kenta Maeda had a 4.04 ERA but a 3.26 xERA
His 0.78 difference in ERA and xERA was the fourth most among qualified starting pitchers. Maeda has had to live in pitching purgatory (also known as the Los Angeles Dodgers) over the past few seasons. The Dodgers are clever how they move pitchers between the rotation and the bullpen and kudos to them for finding something that works. It's not helpful for Fantasy purposes, however. With Maeda being traded over to the Minnesota Twins, he's fully entrenched in their starting rotation. He's been a little better as a reliever in his career but a 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 as a starter is nothing to sneeze at. Maeda's ability to generate swinging strikes was among the elite in 2019. His 14.6% swinging strike rate ranked seventh in baseball, just between Lucas Giolito and Patrick Corbin. He's absolutely a target of mine at his 171.8 ADP as a starter in Roto or a SPARP in H2H points leagues.
Verdict: Definitely matters. Finding this year's Shane Bieber in the middle rounds could go a long way. It's high praise but Maeda has decent upside.
| ||||||||||
Julio Urias allowed the lowest average exit velocity last season (83.2 MPH)
To put that in perspective, Shane Bieber allowed the 12th highest at 90.2 MPH. Usually when a pitcher can pair soft contact with swings and misses, it's a recipe for success. That's what has so many excited about Urias in 2020. It feels like Urias has been around forever, but he's still just 23 years old and was once the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. In 28 career starts, he owns a 3.66 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with 125 strikeouts in 123 innings pitched. His career 13.7% swinging strike rate is very enticing. His 3.5 BB/9, however, is not. Expect Urias to be a better contributor in Roto leagues because the Dodgers likely won't let him go deep into games. His 146.4 ADP is a tad higher than Maeda's but I believe his upside is as well.
Verdict: This also matters. Urias is a popular breakout candidate and when examining the reasons why, this is one of them.
| ||||||||||
Dinelson Lamet's 58.8% out of zone swing and miss percentage was second among starting pitchers
He ranked behind only Blake Snell and just ahead of Gerrit Cole in this particular stat. Lamet returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and while his 4.07 ERA was pedestrian, his underlying numbers were anything but. His 33.6% strikeout rate would have ranked fourth and his 14% swinging strike rate would have been tied for ninth among starting pitchers last season. The downside is how long can he keep it up with only two-ish pitches? He throws his wipeout slider 44% of the time, accompanied by a four-seam fastball and a sinker he only started using last season. His 123 ADP is more risk than I'm willing to take on, especially when he's being drafted over somebody like Max Fried.
Verdict: It won't matter if Lamet can't develop a third pitch. His slider is incredible but now teams have an offseason to study it.
