2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 16 players Scott White can't stop drafting

Whether because of the value or pure happenstance, these players just fit.

Not every player I like fits neatly into the Sleeper or Breakout bucket. Some just don't get the credit they deserve. Others are so perfectly suited for what I'm trying to do in a draft that I wind up picking them over and over again.

Actions speak louder than words, so while it's useful to highlight the players I'd like to have in an ideal scenario, it's also worthwhile to point out the ones I'm actually drafting.

Here are some of the players I've invested in the most.

(The numbers next to each player's picture represent his ADP according to two different sources.)

Most everyone considers Shane Bieber to be part of a big three at starting pitcher, but few have him No. 1 among that group, like I do, instead preferring Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole. It makes for a situation where if I'm drafting anywhere between Picks 5 through 9 in a traditional 5x5 league, I'm probably getting him -- and sometimes even earlier (like in H2H points) or later (if he falls). So why do I prefer him? More than him being the best of the three last year, it's that he's delivered the most volume of the three two years running, functioning more as a 7-8 inning pitcher than a 6-7 inning pitcher.

The mainstream services like CBS, ESPN and Yahoo pull Alex Bregman's ADP up into the third-round range, but in industry leagues, he often slides beyond the top 50, which is ludicrous when you consider his track record. Maybe the 41 homers he hit in 2019 were too good to be true, but even with 31 in 2018, he bordered on first-round production because of his run and RBI contributions. His plate discipline gives him a stable profile that last year's small sample betrayed, but at 26, I'm betting he has several years of MVP-like production still ahead of him.

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At this point, I think you could put Corey Seager on the short list of best pure hitters in baseball, which might also include Mike Trout, Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman. He had the expected stats to rival all three last year, his .326 xBA and .645 xSLG exceeding his actual numbers, and was just as monstrous in the playoffs before doing more of the same this spring. He's my choice to win NL MVP and the early-rounder I hate missing out on the most, to the point I'll reach into the second round to grab him if there isn't a starting pitcher I like there.

First, you have to wrap your head around how good Kenta Maeda was last year. The base numbers are one thing, but he placed third in xFIP, behind only Shane Bieber and Jacob deGrom, and third in swinging-strike rate, behind only deGrom and Lucas Giolito. If I could have only two stats by which to assess a pitcher, it would be those. He tweaked his pitch selection from his Dodgers days and was handled more conventionally by his new club, which I think unlocked his latent potential. Some dock him over workload concerns, but he's so efficient that, like last year, he'll be knocking out six innings with ease.

He's become such a trendy bust pick that it's easy to lose sight of how Zach Plesac stacked up in 2020, finishing behind only the Cy Young winners, Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer, in Head-to-Head points per game. No pitcher went seven-plus with more consistency than him, and never did he go less than six innings. Still, it was only eight starts -- eight in which he made better use of his secondary pitches and improved in every way we might measure dominance -- but nonetheless, eight. If your aim is for maximum impact at the starting pitcher position, he's come closer than most going in his range. I can withstand the downside since he's normally my No. 4.

While it's true that one's career high in home runs is 53 and the other's is 36 (albeit in only 127 games), I still posit that Pete Alonso and Matt Olson are basically mirror images of each other. Both are 26. Both typically strike out about 25 percent of the time. Both are capable of elite exit velocities. Judging by their expected stats in years past, I imagine each player's baseline season is a .250-.260 average with 40 or so home runs, so knowing Olson will be there 30 picks after Alonso makes my approach to first base an easy one.

It's crazy we've arrived at a place where Zack Wheeler is now the safe, boring guy, but nonetheless, 2020 marked his third straight season of starting every fifth day, going six-plus more often than not and delivering ratios too good to take out of the lineup. He has a 3.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 during that time. It makes him a perfect choice as the fourth or fifth guy to round out the sort of star-studded rotation I normally put together. He doesn't have to do the heavy lifting, but he bolsters what's already in place and can hold down the fort if disaster strikes.

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I originally labeled Dylan Bundy a bust for 2021, pointing out that while his fly-ball profile may have held up in a season spent almost entirely in big AL West parks, it still leaves him vulnerable to the long ball. But his xFIP, which accounts for that fly-ball rate, was only 3.75, not 4.75. He'll still make most of his starts in big parks, including the one he calls home, and there's no reason to doubt his capacity for strikeouts. Turns out everyone else wants him less than I do, and grabbing him as my fifth starter seems like easy money. The volume should be there in a year when that's of particular concern across the pitching ranks.

As the 2020 season was playing out, it felt like Fantasy baseballers reached a consensus that Mike Yastrzemski was indeed a breakout star for the Giants, his .297 batting average and .968 OPS pretty much telling the story there. But because he doesn't contribute to stolen bases, really, and may only top out at 30 homers or so, it turns out he's an afterthought in industry leagues especially, often going 20-30 picks beyond his ADP. It's especially egregious in points leagues, where his plus plate discipline contributed to a point-per-game average (3.55) on par with George Springer last year.

Why Wil Myers is going 40 picks later than Teoscar Hernandez is beyond me. He was the better of the two in 2020, has the better track record and actually bettered his plate discipline in a way that would suggest the improvements were wholesale and not just the result of a two-month hot streak. Maybe it's just that people have lost sight of Myers' track record as a relevant base-stealer. He swiped only two bags last year but averaged 21 per 155 games in the four years preceding it. A 35-homer, 15-steal season doesn't seem so far-fetched, and the price is certainly right.

If there's one player I'm liable to reach for this year given how late he typically goes and how high I think the ceiling is, it's Ke'Bryan Hayes, whose contact skills give him a high batting average floor and whose athleticism gives him a relevant stolen base ceiling. Those factors alone are worth the cost of admission, making him out to be a speedier Gio Urshela, but his quality of contact last September and again this spring points to a higher power ceiling than most of us thought possible. If he turns out to be more of a 30-homer guy than a 20-homer guy, it's a game-changer.

Yeah, Tommy Edman let us all down last year, but he clearly didn't lose any clout with the Cardinals, who are turning over second base and leadoff duties to him. The former is significant because he's already eligible at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and the impending quadruple eligibility will come in oh so handy. The latter is significant because of the surplus of at-bats, the potential for oodles of runs and the possibility of him running more like in 2019, when he swiped 15 bags in only 92 games. He's become a must for me in the middle rounds of Rotisserie leagues, where steals are essential.

The expectation is that Mike Soroka will miss the first month or so of the season as he continues his recovery from a ruptured Achilles, but the fact he's already been able to make several sim starts suggests it could be much sooner than that. Whenever he returns, his contribution to the most pivotal position in Fantasy should be a significant one. He's an elite ground ball-generator and strike-thrower, profiling as something like another Kyle Hendricks, and given the volatility and high threshold for success at starting pitcher, you don't pass up a discount for a potential difference-maker. I have IL spots. I can wait.

I'm combining these two left-handed relievers into one because, really, the argument is the same for each. Neither one's manager has gone so far as to name him the closer yet, but in each instance, it's a foregone conclusion. I suppose most Fantasy Baseballers want the assurance that comes with an official declaration, but rarely do we get those anymore. You have to learn to read between the lines. Each has dominated this spring. Each is the most obvious choice for his team. One of my goals in every draft is to take Will Smith as my first reliever, Amir Garrett as my second, and then watch both become top five.

The White Sox have intimated since early in the offseason that they think Andrew Vaughn, the third pick in the 2019 draft, is ready to step into a big-league role and then made a point to leave their DH spot open this offseason. He has checked every box so far this spring, showing power and patience, and has manager Tony La Russa raving about the quality of his at-bats. So why isn't he flying up draft boards? It reminds me of Pete Alonso two springs ago, and those shares sure paid off. Even if Vaughn gets sent down for service time reasons, allowing the White Sox to secure another year of control, it'll be only a two-week wait, and I suspect he'll be must-start when he arrives.

You know what I said about Mike Soroka? The same goes for Luis Severino, who was an unquestioned ace before succumbing to Tommy John surgery prior to the 2020 season. The discount is greater because the timetable is longer and even murkier, but as with Soroka, I think Severino will beat expectations given that he's already throwing bullpen sessions (and earning rave reviews for it). He's about as far along in his recovery as Noah Syndergaard, but he goes 50 picks later on average and I think is the better bet for ace production when he returns. If he makes it back before the end of May, the return on investment could be enormous.

Others I'm heavily invested in

For more on these players, see my Breakouts 3.0 and Sleepers 3.0.