Fantasy Basketball Trend Watch: Who can sustain big start?
Pau Gasol is blocking, Anthony Davis is stealing and Jimmy Butler is scoring at will this year. Joe Polito dives deeper into their numbers to find out what's sustainable.
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We're past the 10-game mark in the season, meaning the league leaders are starting to take shape, but a couple bigger names have stood out in categories that you wouldn't expect. Let's take a look to see if we can expect it to continue.
Pau Gasol, C, Bulls: 2.5 blocks per game, 10.6 rebounds per game
I called Pau a bust before the season, and so far he's making me eat that prediction like a plate of spicy food that apparently Pau himself does not enjoy. I thought Gasol would be much more a role player than an All Star on this revamped Bulls' team, but he's been utterly dominant in all of the ways that I didn't expect him to be so far this year.
Still, when you look at his career profile and his fluctuating health over those 13 years, you've got to expect him to come back to earth. Selling high might be the thing to do if you're relying on his blocks and rebounds to win you the big-man categories. It's definitely the case that this is one of the best defensive teams he's ever played on, meaning Tom Thibodeau's disciplined system is funneling defenders right to him and making boxing out for boards a breeze. But you just can't reasonably expect Gasol to outpace Dwight Howard in blocks per game as he's doing right now. The last time he averaged two or more blocks per game, it was 2007 and he was 26.
He combined for 10 blocks in Chicago's second and third games of the season this year, so that is definitely boosting his average. Swats will be easier to come by on this team, but I'd bank on Gasol settling back into his identity as a finesse player sometime soon over this long NBA season. The Bulls are playing for May and June, and his numbers should start to reflect that.
Anthony Davis, F/C, Pelicans: 2.3 steals per game
So at this rate, next season Davis will be hitting 3s like Bosh and assisting like Marc Gasol, and then we'll just start personalizing the MVP trophy for him in October every year. Seriously, what can't this guy do? He's averaging a steal more per game than he did last season to go along with all his other ridiculous metrics.
It sounds odd, but adding some muscle might be helping Davis in the steals department. No longer can centers push him around on the block, so when perimeter players aren't precise with their entry passes, the long arm of the law is there to keep them honest. Plus, when Omer Asik is in the game, he has much more freedom to roam the passing lanes and use his length for more than anchoring a defense.
It's hard to imagine a guy so big averaging more than 2.0 steals per game, but it certainly seems possible for Davis' ever-expanding bag of tricks.
Jimmy Butler, G, Bulls: 21.3 points per game
Somebody on the perimeter has to score for the Bulls, and so far Jimmy Butler has been taking full advantage of Derrick Rose's spotty attendance. That's because he has been getting to the free throw line at the same rate as LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Blake Griffin at 8.0 attempts per night.
Another huge factor in this breakout has been his significant uptick in his shooting percentages. His effective field goal percentage (which factors in threes) on catch-and-shoot jumpers is 61.8. He's at 50 percent from the field so far after finishing below 40 percent last season. Logic would dictate that he'll settle somewhere in the middle as the season goes on, but Butler's shooting has been unpredictable throughout his brief career.
Lastly, the biggest reason he's scoring so much is because he's second in the NBA in minutes per game, logging a whopping 40.3 a night. Of course this number will come down when (if?) Rose gets to a point of normalcy, but we've seen Thibodeau leave Butler out for long stretches before, and it proved costly to his health. He missed 15 games last year and probably played injured a good bit during the Bulls rather desperate times. I would sell high now. It's nothing to do with Butler as a player. He's a tenacious defender, athletic and showing good shooting form. It's just that his team will rely on balance once it's time to establish an identity.
Category specialists worth considering
Three-point specialist: Shawne Williams, F, Heat (57 percent owned)
If 3s be what ye seek, then take a look down in Miami, where comeback story Shawne Williams has been lighting it up from downtown with unexpected success. We knew the guy could shoot, but we didn't know that (a) he could be of use for anything other than 3s or (b) that he'd be on the court long enough to make a difference. So far he's achieving both of those things while hitting 2.5 triples per contest, good for fifth in the NBA.
Miami seems content with bringing Josh McRoberts along slowly while he heals from toe surgery, and Williams has been the prime beneficiary. One of the reasons he has been able to achieve this production is the fact that his jumper requires little more than a flick of the wrist above his head to achieve perfect arc. At 6-foot-10, he's giving defenses fits when it comes to game-planning for both him and Chris Bosh out on the perimeter. If teams decide to put their more nimble power forward on Bosh, Williams is dragging a slow center out to the perimeter. It's a matchup nightmare for most teams in the NBA, and it's all predicated on Williams being a pure shooter -- perhaps the only one left on the new Heat roster.
Grab him now while he's logging heavy minutes and reap the benefits of his sharpshooting along with a stellar 51 percent from the field and 5.3 rebounds per game.
Blocks/FG Percentage specialist: Brandan Wright, C, Mavericks (20 percent owned)
I've been waiting and waiting for Brandan Wright to finally break out, but it looks like he's back doing what he has always done: spelling starting centers off the bench. Still, he serves this role with a special kind of energy that still makes him useful in spurts. Right now, he's rolling for a guy who only gets 18 minutes per game. Wright has scored in double figures four straight games and leads the NBA in field goal percentage at 75.0 on the year.
He's also blocking 1.5 shots per game in that brief window he's allotted. These numbers paint a picture of the uptempo pogo stick who comes in solely to dunk, block and putback for a handful of possessions per game. His value will shoot up if Tyson Chandler misses any time with injury because Dallas is without another rim protector. Larry Sanders is owned in four times as many leagues as Wright, but he only averages .3 more blocks per game while converting 30 percent fewer field goals. Obviously, Wright's 3.8 rebounds per game is his glaring weakness, but if you're stacked in that category, you might give this specialist a shot to make up ground in blocks and FG rate. He's also not terrible from the free throw line for a gangly center, hitting over 70 percent of his attempts on the year.














