Fullcourt Press: Luck of the lottery
The National Lotto's tagline is 'You can't win if you don't play.' The NBA lottery's tagline could be 'You can't play if you don't lose.' Fullcourt Press will break down the 12 lottery-bound teams and their needs, as well as some potential selections.
Fullcourt Press is our weekly look at the latest headline news from around the league. We'll examine stat trends, injuries, depth chart battles and schedule breakdowns, along with notable performances throughout the NBA season.
On Tuesday, May 24, the league will hold its draft lottery to determine the order for this year's NBA Draft. 13 teams will each vie to hold the much sought after honor of the No. 1 selection in the draft, including the Charlotte Bobcats with two picks. Although it's determined by complete chance, many teams will be heavily weighing their immediate futures based on how the lottery balls come up.
Basketball executives go into the draft with two possible mindsets: (1) draft the best player available, or (2) fill a specific need. Both are good ways to go, but each has a downside as well. Portland decided to go with Sam Bowie as the No. 2 selection in the 1984 Draft, passing on Michael Jordan. We all know how that one turned out. On a side note, John Stockton was selected as the No. 12 selection in that draft. He was taken immediately after Tim McCormick, Jay Humphries, Michael Cage and Terence Stansbury.
On the other hand, the Clippers decided to take Michael Olowakandi with the first pick in the 1998 Draft despite the presence of Lorenzen Wright and Brian Skinner already on the roster. They felt he was the best player available, but the seven-footer has yet to live up to his potential. Mike Bibby, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Larry Hughes, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce were all taken after the Kandi-man.
This edition of Fullcourt Press will break down the dozen lottery teams and their specific needs, as well as a brief look at several of the top candidates in the draft on June 28.
| NBA Lottery | ||
| Team | Record | Chances |
| Atlanta | 13-69 | 250 |
| New Orleans | 18-64 | 178 |
| Charlotte | 18-64 | 177 |
| Utah | 25-57 | 119 |
| Portland | 26-56 | 88 |
| Milwaukee | 30-52 | 63 |
| Toronto | 33-49 | 36 |
| New York | 33-49 | 35 |
| Golden State | 34-48 | 14 |
| LA Lakers | 34-48 | 14 |
| Orlando | 36-46 | 8 |
| LA Clippers | 37-45 | 7 |
| Charlotte | via Cle | 6 |
| Minnesota | 44-38 | 5 |
Atlanta will have the greatest odds of catching the No. 1 pick in the draft, but anything can happen. If they do land the top choice, they have several holes that need to be filled. The only players with true value on their roster are sophomores Josh Childress and Josh Smith, along with Al Harrington. A true point guard or a dominant center are likely the top two goals for the lowly franchise.
The New Orleans Hornets had an absolutely abysmal 2004 season. They cut ties with Baron Davis, David Wesley, Darrell Armstrong and Jamal Mashburn, and injuries sidelined their lone All-Star, Jamaal Magloire, to just 23 games. His contract expired at the end of last season and it's unlikely he'll elect to resign with the team unless management shows definitive signs of rebuilding. Speedy Claxton and J.R. Smith will get plenty of burn in the backcourt so the team will likely target the best available frontcourt player.
The Charlotte Bobcats endured a tumultuous -- but rather successful -- inaugural season in 2004. The No. 2 selection in last year's draft, Emeka Okafor, proved he was as good as advertised, wrapping up the Rookie of the Year honors while averaging a 15.1 PPG and 10.9 RPG. He's the only player on the current roster that has a definite spot next year. While Brevin Knight did a great job running the point for the fledgling franchise, he is still expendable. With solid point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Raymond Felton available, they could take a floor general with their first selection. They'll have two picks in the lottery thanks to trade with Cleveland last year.
Injuries to their top-two players, Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer, completely ruined Utah's chances for a successful season. Mehmet Okur proved he was a capable frontcourt player averaging 12.9 PPG and 7.5 RPG. If those three can come back strong in November -- and they all are expected to -- the Jazz will have a formidable frontcourt. The team shipped away veteran point guard Carlos Arroyo mid-season because of a difference of opinion with coach Jerry Sloan. Raul Lopez is the lone point guard on the current roster and he is coming off season-ending knee surgery. Expect the team to fill that need through the draft.
The Trailblazers financial situation has been absolutely dreadful for quite some time, but 2006 will finally bring some much-anticipated salary cap relief. High-paid veterans Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Damon Stoudemire and Nick Van Exel will likely be off the team's books, so that will free up over $35 million. Forwards Zach Randolph and Darius Miles will be the team's offensive focal points, while 19-year old Sebastian Telfair will run the show. Joel Przybilla, who was one of the most improved players in the league, proved he can be the man in the middle. The team will likely go with a swingman or a physical center. Seven-foot-three project Martynas Andriuskevicius could still be on the board when Portland selects.
The Bucks will cut their salary in half this summer. Alan Henderson, Jason Caffey, Anthony Mason and Toni Kukoc will become free agents and help cut the Bucks' team salary from $56.8 mil to $28.3 mil. Henderson, Caffey and Mason -- along with youngster T.J. Ford -- did not play one minute for the team last year. Ford (bruised spinal cord) continues to be a huge question mark, but doctors did finally clear him for physical activity recently. Rumors persist that All-Star Michael Redd will return home to Ohio and sign with the up-and-coming Cavaliers. Bottom-line, the Bucks have many holes that need to be filled. They'll likely go with the best player on the board.
The Raptors franchise took a major step towards rebuilding when they decided to ship disgruntled superstar Vince Carter to the Nets around the trade deadline. Since that transaction, second-year stud Chris Bosh increased his role dramatically and proved he's one of the best young talents in the league. The contracts of Donyell Marshall, Morris Peterson and Eric Williams will come off the Canadian team's payroll, but the multi-million dollar deals for Jalen Rose, Alvin Williams, Alonzo Mourning and Lamond Murray will still hamper the team's ability to shop the free-agent market. Rose is owed over $15 million -- one-third of the entire roster's payroll. Bosh and point guard Rafer Alston are each definitely in the long-term plans for the team, so they'll probably lean towards selecting a center, small forward or shooting guard.
Ten players will earn over $6 million in 2005-06 for the New York Knicks, including Malik Rose, Shandon Anderson, Jerome Williams and Maurice Taylor. Their roster is full of underachieving, high-priced veterans and their immediate future looks bleak. With Stephon Marbury, Jamaal Crawford and the high-priced salary of Allan Houston expect the Knicks to target bolstering their frontcourt. Mike Sweetney made great strides in his second season, but is not quite ready to be the team's main focus at the power forward spot. New York could be in a good position to take a chance on high school phenom Gerald Green, who is a Tracy McGrady-type athlete.
The Warriors have already locked up their top-three players to long-term contracts. Jason Richardson and Troy Murphy are each signed through 2011 and Baron Davis is through '08. With this All-Star caliber trio, you can expect Oakland's team to target a center, if available. Chris Taft, Charlie Villanueva or high school stud Andrew Bynum are feasible options.
Next season, the Lakers will have a very similar roster as 2004-05. Only Luke Walton and possibly Devean George and Vlade Divac (player options) could be in a different uniform to tip off the year. The team will obviously continue to revolve around Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom so look for the team to go after a center or point guard. With the abundance of quality point guards in the first round, Chucky Atkins will likely soon be a part-time player.
Orlando started off the season in strong fashion, only to fizzle in the closing month. The Cuttino Mobley for Doug Christie deal was probably the point the magic left the Orlando franchise. Jameer Nelson enjoyed a successful rookie campaign and is expected to be the team's starting point guard next year -- pushing Steve Francis to the shooting guard. Fellow rookie Dwight Howard was spectacular, finishing as one of eight players that averaged a double-double. Kelvin Cato and Tony Battie are serviceable options in the middle. Grant Hill endured an amazing comeback season with Hedo Turkoglu providing an offensive spark off the pine. The team doesn't have many holes, but they can definitely use upgrades. With Hill still a question mark, the team should go after one of the many talented but raw high school up-and-comers. Going after Martell Webster or C.J. Miles make sense here.
For a team that is always involved in the lottery, the Los Angeles Clippers have made some bad choices in recent years. Shaun Livingston, Chris Kaman and Chris Wilcox represent the team's past three No. 1 selections, but they have a long track record of not being able to resign their best players. They selected Tyson Chandler, Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson and Lamar Odom in the three previous years, but each was traded or allowed to bolt for the greener pastures of free agency. Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Kaman and Livingston is a decent young nucleus, so L.A.'s other team could target the best available point guard, shooting guard or small forward. Maggette is an ideal swingman and can play the two and three, while Livingston can play both guard positions. Antoine Wright, Danny Granger and Hakim Warrick could fit in nicely.
The Timberwolves went from the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference in 2003 to a lottery team the following year. Starting point guard Sam Cassell had an injury-riddled season and Latrell Sprewell suffered his worst statistical campaign -- by a landslide. The team will lose Spree, Ervin Johnson, Troy Hudson, Mark Madsen and Anthony Carter to free agency, creating several holes. Wally Szczerbiak; has been rumored to be going to New York via trade, so the T-Wolves could be starting basically from scratch. Kevin Garnett will provide another MVP-caliber season at the power forward spot, but everything else is a big question mark. They'll go with the best available player that doesn't play power forward.
Fullcourt Press' Top-Ten Players:
- Andrew Bogut, C, Utah: Listed at 7'3", 240 pounds, Bogut has the body and skills to perform in the pros already. He's got a similar game to <b>Keith Van Horn,</b> but is much better in the post. If taken by the Hawks, Hornets or Bobcats, he'll provide decent numbers right away.
- Marvin Williams, SF, North Carolina: Williams could have been a lottery choice last year. Instead, he decided to go to college and promptly won a National title in one season. Despite the fact he's still just 18 years old, he is a world-class athlete. When it's all said and done, Williams might be the cream of the crop in this year's Draft.
- Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest: Paul is the unquestioned top pure point guard available. In two years at Wake Forest, he's shown he has all the tools to be a successful floor general at the next level. He's got great handle, amazing passing abilities, the ability to drain a jumper -- including beyond the arc, the speed to penetrate the lane and finish and court wisdom unheard of for a teenager.
- Gerald Green, SF, TX High School: Green is the No. 1 ranked high school basketball player in the country. At 6'7", Green is blessed with extreme versatility and athletisism. He'll be a fan favorite wherever he goes because of his jaw-dropping, rim-rocking dunks, but might need a year or two to become a reliable Fantasy option.
- Deron Williams, PG, Illinois: Williams led Illinois to an impressive 37-2 mark and a date in St. Louis at the NCAA Championship. Although he came up short in the big game, he'll have a bright future in the NBA. Some question marks loom about his foot speed, but he is a true pass-first, shoot-second point guard. With many of the sub-par teams desperately lacking a point guard, Williams is in a great situation to see quality minutes his rookie year
- Martynas Andriuskevicius, C, Lithuania: Andriuskevicius has been compared to fellow countryman Zydrunas Ilgauskas because of his stellar footwork and soft touch around the basket. At 19 years of age, the kid is already 7'3", 240 pounds and amazingly coordinated for his build. He's a big-time project currently, but has tremendous long-term upside.
- Chris Taft, PF/C, Pittsburgh: Taft is a big-bodied power forward that can be compared to a more skilled Chris Wilcox. At 6'10", 245 pounds, he is a blue-collar workhorse. He's still very raw offensively, but will be a formidable defensive presence right away.
- Sean May, PF, North Carolina: May's draft value skyrocketed after his 10-for-11 shooting performance in this year's National Championship. He's got the size and strength already to bang with the big bodies in the pros. His durability will be tested, but he should post decent numbers from the get-go.
- Charlie Villanueva, PF, Connecticut: Villanueva has a great back-to-the-basket game. Utilized in the post in UConn's offense, he has drastically improved his rebounding and offensive arsenal around the hoop. His tenacity is sometimes questioned, but he has the skills to develop into a fine pro player.
- Raymond Felton, PG, North Carolina: Felton has the speed and explosiveness to hang with most point guards in the league. He's a pass-first, shoot-second player that has the patience to wait for his spot in the game to get involved. At just 20 years old, Felton will be one of the quickest players in the game. Statistically, he won't raise too many eyebrows his rookie year, but he should make a serviceable backup point guard right away.
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