2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I draft with the No. 1 pick in PPR?
Heath Cummings says when you have a pick on the turn you can't worry about ADP.
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4 min read
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Editor's note: Our latest PPR pick-by-pick series was done in August prior to the third preseason game and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Building a team from every draft slot in PPR and non-PPR
Average draft position is an important tool, but also one that can be overused. This is especially true if you find yourself with the first or 12th pick in the draft.
It's a dangerous game from anywhere in the draft trying to wait one more round for the top player on your board because ADP says he'll still be there next time you pick. But when you have 22 picks between two selections it's a really bad idea. Picking from the turn, you're either going to take players who have fallen too far or reaching for players you're afraid won't come back to you. In other words, if you're passing on players you want, you'll end up drafting players nobody wants. Thankfully, when you're drafting No. 1 you get to start with a player everyone wants.
Here's my team from No. 1 overall:
- 1.1 Le'Veon Bell, RB, PIT
- 2.12 Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL
- 3.1 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
- 4.12 Michael Crabtree, WR, BAL
- 5.1 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
- 6.12 Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ
- 7.1 Robert Woods, WR, LAR
- 8.12 Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN
- 9.1 Chris Thompson, RB, WAS
- 10.12 Allen Hurns, WR, DAL
- 11.1 Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS
- 12.12 Eric Ebron, TE, IND
- 13.1 DeVante Parker, WR, MIA
- 14.12 Panthers DST
So, why Le'Veon Bell over Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, or even David Johnson? I'm not going to make an impassioned case that he's the only right choice, because he's not. They're all awesome. In PPR I choose Bell because of his catch volume and the quality of his offense. Sure, there are concerns about his conditioning with the holdout, but I also have concerns about the offenses in Dallas and Arizona and the efficiency regression that's coming for Gurley. It's really hard to go wrong with any of these four.
It's easy to go wrong at the next turn.
Making picks at the two-three turn may be the most stressful part of Fantasy drafts. Everybody else already has two players and you know the pickings are going to be slim the next time you're up. I was happy to land Freeman here, while Fitzgerald has been a PPR stud for the last three years. Had Travis Kelce and/or T.Y. Hilton fallen a couple of spots, I would have felt much better about my team after three picks.
The fact that I only had one receiver after three picks in a PPR league did make me feel uneasy. That's why I took three with my next four picks. I'll talk more about Crabtree below, but Anderson and Woods at the six-seven turn made me feel a lot better about my receiver depth. Anderson was a top-20 receiver in this format in 2017, and Woods was even better on a per-game basis.
This approach also meant I waited until late in the draft for both my quarterback and my tight end. Which leads us to my favorite pick of the draft and one of my favorite values at quarterback.
Favorite pick: Kick Cousins
Kirk Cousins has been a top-nine quarterback each of the past three seasons in Fantasy Football and now he has a better cast of weapons than he's ever had. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen form one of the best receiver duos in the league, Kyle Rudolph is a top-10 tight end, and Dalvin Cook is one of my favorite breakout candidates. So I have no idea why I'm consistently finding Cousins after 10-plus quarterbacks have been selected in Fantasy drafts. Actually, I do: It's because of the excitement over the upside of Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo. People are right. They do have upside. They could even be as good as Kirk Cousins has been the last three years!
Pick I might regret: Michael Crabtree
My reasoning for taking Michael Crabtree may be starting to fall apart. I look at Crabtree as a high-volume receiver on a team that doesn't have a true No.1 receiver. He's also the best red zone threat on the Ravens roster. The problem with this line of thinking is the outstanding preseason John Brown is putting together. If Brown stays healthy, he could eat into Crabtree's targets, and I won't be happy I spent a fourth round pick on him. Thankfully, Anderson and Woods offer good depth to cover that possibility.
Player who could make or break my team: Mark Ingram
Yes, Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four weeks of the season. That's the only reason he's available at pick 49. From Week 5 on he was the No. 4 running back in PPR scoring in 2017. He was 85 points better than No. 13, Alex Collins. I am not among those who believe Alvin Kamara is going to see a massive increase in his workload this season, and I certainly don't think Jonathan Williams is going to steal Ingram's job. If Bell and Freeman stay healthy I'll be playing a No. 1 running back as my flex in the second half of this season. That's how you win leagues.
