2021 Fantasy Football: Jamey Eisenberg's Breakouts 1.0 lean heavily on Year 2 class potential
The draft class of 2020 will look even better in 2021
•
2 min read
Cam Akers and D'Andre Swift are going to be two popular breakout candidates in 2021. Both have the chance to be special in their sophomore campaigns, and both highlight my Breakouts 1.0 for the upcoming season.
Let's start with Akers, who closed last year on a tear for the Rams. He was the Rams best offensive player in the postseason, and he's put himself in position to be a Round 2 pick in most Fantasy leagues in 2021.
Jamey's 2021 Sleepers 1.0 | Busts 1.0
Against Seattle in the wild-card round he had 28 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown, along with two catches for 45 yards. He followed that up against the Packers with 18 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown, as well as one catch for 6 yards.
Now, Darrell Henderson (ankle) was out for those two games, and he will remain a factor in the Rams backfield next season. But Akers had at least 19 total touches in five of his final six games, including the playoffs, and scored at least 16 PPR points in three of them. I thought he could be a star coming out of Florida State in 2020, and he looks the part heading into his second year.
He should benefit with the addition of Matthew Stafford at quarterback, and the Rams also are expected to lose Malcolm Brown as a free agent. If Akers can increase his role in the passing game -- say anything above 35 receptions -- he could be a top-10 Fantasy running back this season.
Swift should be a star in the passing game for the Lions, and his 16-game pace as a rookie in 2019 had him at 57 catches for 439 yards and two touchdowns. His receiving work should be locked in, especially if Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones both leave as free agents. But we'll see what Swift does on the ground for a Detroit team that could be terrible.
The addition of offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and running backs coach Duce Staley should be great for Swift given their history. And the Lions might not have a choice but to feed Swift as much as possible.
We know the Year 2 RBs are going to be popular breakout candidates, but find out who Chris Towers wants to spotlight from this group on the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast. Listen below and subscribe at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts:
He showed his upside to close last season with his 16-game pace over his final nine games, which would have been 181 carries for 852 yards and 12 touchdowns, as well as 59 catches for 414 yards and two touchdowns.
Jared Goff is a slight downgrade for Swift, but it's nothing to run away from. Swift is worth drafting in Round 2 in all leagues, just like Akers.
Those are just two players that I'm excited about for next season. Now, let's examine the rest of my Breakouts 1.0.
Quarterbacks
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Hurts has the chance to be a top-five Fantasy quarterback this season, and he's someone to target in all leagues now that Carson Wentz was traded to the Colts. We'll see what the Eagles do as far as competition for Hurts, but if he remains the starter as expected he could be a star. He scored 20, 43 and 19 Fantasy points in his first three starts against New Orleans, Arizona and Dallas, and he was on pace for 4,517 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, as well as 1,269 rushing yards and five touchdowns over 16 games. That's likely not realistic, but his rushing potential gives him a huge advantage over most quarterbacks. If he improves as a passer -- and the Eagles enhance their receiving corps -- Hurts has the chance to be special this year.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Burrow is expected to be fine following last year's torn ACL, which ended his rookie campaign in Week 11. Prior to going down, he showed you flashes of his upside as a weekly Fantasy starter in all leagues. His 268.8 passing yards per game was No. 7 in the NFL. He had at least 21 Fantasy points in four of nine complete games, and he had two games with at least 300 passing yards where he failed to top 20 Fantasy points, which is some poor touchdown luck. He should get an upgraded offensive line following free agency and the NFL Draft, and I love the upside of Tee Higgins, as you'll read below. You should be able to draft Burrow as a bargain on Draft Day, but he has the potential to be a top 10 Fantasy quarterback this season -- if not higher -- as long as he's healthy by training camp.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Running Backs
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I'm excited about Dobbins this season, and he has the chance to be a special Fantasy asset in all leagues. Mark Ingram is gone, and Dobbins will share work with Gus Edwards, which is annoying but not something to fear. Dobbins is the leader of this backfield, and his role should expand with a full offseason. And the lead running back for the Ravens has been an excellent Fantasy option over the past two years. Going back to 2019, there have been 23 times where a Ravens running back had at least 13 carries. The average for those games for that running back was 14.7 PPR points. And eight times over that span that running back had more than 15 PPR points. In 2020, 14.7 points per game would have been the No. 15 PPR running back -- and No. 16 in 2019. Over his final five outings in the regular season, Dobbins averaged 16.2 PPR points per game, and he had three games with at least 13 carries. He also had no game under 13 PPR points over that span. I plan to draft Dobbins in Round 2 in any non-PPR league and early Round 3 in any PPR format.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Dillon is listed here with the potential of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams leaving the Packers as free agents. I've said for a while now that Green Bay should keep Williams as a complement to Dillon, but he could have the backfield all to himself if both leave. The Packers running backs as a group have been special under coach Matt LaFleur the past two seasons, finishing fourth in Fantasy points in 2019 and seventh in 2020. We'll see if Dillon can keep that going if he becomes the lead option, but I like him as a No. 2 running back with top-15 upside heading into the year. I plan to draft Dillon as early as Round 4 right now if he's the starter, but I could see his Average Draft Position creeping into Round 3. He had one game in 2020 with an increased workload, which was Week 16 against Tennessee, and he finished with 25 carries for 124 yards and two touchdowns, along with one catch for 5 yards on one target. He'll have to improve as a pass catcher to maximize his Fantasy value, but the upside will be there if Jones and potentially Williams are gone.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Sanders was one of my favorite breakout candidates in 2020, but he ended up looking more like a bust. He averaged 13.6 PPR points per game as a rookie in 2019 but was at just 13.4 PPR points in 2020. Injuries were partly to blame, as well as his offensive line falling apart, but Sanders needs to improve in his third year to likely justify his expected second-round ADP. I'll be a buyer at that price because I do expect Hurts to help Sanders, as well as getting guys like Brandon Brooks, Lane Johnson and Andre Dillard back healthy up front. In three starts with Hurts, Sanders averaged 18.3 PPR points per game, and he had four catches in two of those outings. Hurts should help Sanders, especially if he becomes a bigger threat in the passing game. And remember, Sanders had 50 receptions as a rookie. I thought Sanders would be a top 10 Fantasy running back in 2020, and I still expect him to reach that threshold this year. Hopefully, he proves me right.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Like Sanders, I had Mixon as a breakout candidate in 2020, but a foot injury in Week 6 knocked him out for the season. Prior to getting hurt, Mixon had scored at least 12 PPR points in four of his first six games, including at least 14 PPR points in each of his final three outings. His 16-game pace would have put him at 317 carries for 1,141 yards and eight touchdowns, along with 56 catches for 368 yards and three touchdowns, and that's the running back I'm hoping for when I draft him in Round 2 in all leagues. The Bengals offense has a chance to be explosive with Burrow and Mixon healthy, as well as expected upgrades on the offensive line, and Mixon could easily be Cincinnati's best skill player. He has workhorse potential and a three-down skillset, and those running backs are hard to find these days. If healthy, Mixon can finally have his breakout season in 2021.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Wide Receivers
Projections powered by
Sportsline
You're going to notice a theme here with the breakout receivers I love from this sophomore class, and Higgins could be the best of the bunch as long as Burrow is healthy. From Week 3 until Burrow's last healthy game in Week 10, a span of seven outings, Higgins averaged 16.3 PPR points per game, including four contests with at least 18 PPR points. He also averaged nearly eight targets per game over that stretch, and it's clear Burrow will lean on Higgins, who could have a bigger role with A.J. Green gone. Tyler Boyd will also be a significant factor in the passing game for the Bengals, but Higgins has the higher ceiling. I like Higgins as a potential top 15 Fantasy receiver in all leagues to start the season, and I would draft him as early as Round 4.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Lamb getting a full season of Dak Prescott (ankle) should make him a star Fantasy option, and Lamb was on his way toward making that happen as a rookie before Prescott was injured in Week 5. In his first five games, Lamb averaged 16.2 PPR points per game, and he averaged eight targets per game over that span. Only once without Prescott did Lamb top 16.0 PPR points per game for the rest of the year, and it will be fun to see Lamb improving in his second season with better quarterback play. Amari Cooper will still have a prominent role in the passing game, and the Cowboys are loaded with talent with Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Blake Jarwin also needing the football. But Lamb should end up as a weekly Fantasy starter in all leagues, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 4.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
The best part of Aiyuk's rookie season came with Nick Mullens and not Jimmy Garoppolo, who was limited to just six games due to injury in 2020. Aiyuk and Garoppolo will have to get on the same page in 2021 -- if Jimmy G remains the quarterback for the 49ers. Aiyuk also battled injuries last season, but in his final five healthy outings he scored at least 20 Fantasy points each time. Now, he also benefited with George Kittle out or at less than 100 percent, and Deebo Samuel was also banged up, so we'll see how this entire 49ers offense looks when healthy to determine how good Aiyuk can be. But I love his potential in Kyle Shanahan's offense, and Aiyuk has the chance to be a star. I'm looking for him to become a potential top 20 Fantasy receiver in 2021, and he's worth drafting in Round 5.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
JuJu Smith-Schuster is most likely gone from Pittsburgh as a free agent, which means Claypool should be the No. 2 option in the passing game behind Diontae Johnson. We saw Claypool's upside as a rookie in 2020, and he had eight games with at least eight targets. In those games, Claypool averaged 18.1 PPR points per game, including a monster performance with 42 PPR points against the Eagles in Week 5. Smith-Schuster is leaving behind 128 targets, which will be spread out to Diontae Johnson, Claypool and James Washington, among others, but Claypool should have the chance for a solid sophomore campaign. Ben Roethlisberger should continue to lean on Claypool, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 5 in all leagues.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Tight Ends
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Zach Ertz is almost certainly gone from Philadelphia, and the Eagles receiving corps is undergoing a makeover with potentially Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham as the top two guys. That puts Goedert in the prime position to be the best option in the passing game for Hurts, and that's great for Goedert's Fantasy outlook. Think about some of the top tight end performances in recent years -- Darren Waller, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Ertz -- and they haven't exactly played with top-flight receivers. Only Travis Kelce has, but Goedert could be the leader of this passing game and potentially dominate. He had three games in 2020 with at least 18 PPR points, and in two full games with Hurts he saw 14 targets. Goedert was the No. 10 PPR tight end in 2019, so he's already proven he can be a legit Fantasy option, and he did that in tandem with Ertz. Now, with Ertz gone, Goedert has top-five upside in 2021.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Smith might not crack the top five Fantasy tight ends in 2021, but he could be a top 10 option. That's what I'm hoping for with Kyle Rudolph now gone in Minnesota. There are too many mouths to feed for the Vikings to feature Smith, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the same roster. But in 2020, Rudolph missed the final four games of the season with a foot injury, and Smith scored at least 16 PPR points in two of those outings. He could prove to be a valuable weapon for Kirk Cousins in the red zone, and Smith had two multi-touchdown games last year. His price tag on Draft Day should be cheap enough that you can wait on Smith with a late-round pick, but I'll be buying a lot of stock in him given the upside. Smith has the chance to emerge as a weekly starter in all leagues.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
