The excitement of seeing a team like the Bengals add two explosive offensive weapons quickly turns to the dread of realizing you have no idea how they'll employ them. That's the life of a Fantasy analyst and player.
Joe Mixon is a an amazing prospect as a running back who likely would have been a first round pick if talent was the only consideration. But the Bengals still have both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard on the roster to contend with.
John Ross is the fastest man in the history of the NFL combine -- even if he doesn't have the island to prove it. He's a top ten pick who caught 17 touchdown passes last year at Washington. But A.J. Green is still the man in Cincinnati, and a healthy Tyler Eifert is likely No. 2 in the pecking order.
So just how much do volume concerns hurt these talented rookies?
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
Breaking down the touches
The Bengals threw the ball 563 times last year, a more than 10-percent increase over the prior two years. However, they still had a healthy 446 rush attempts, even if it was their lowest in three years. They clearly want to be a more balanced team in terms of run/pass than most, but losing more games than you win makes that difficult.
I expect a better record from the Bengals in 2017, and a slight dip in their pass attempts. But who those pass attempts go to is going to be largely dependent on the health of Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert, and how quickly John Ross becomes the No. 2 receiver.
I have Ross ranked pretty low at receiver because I'm concerned about his target volume at the beginning of the year. But if he's the clear No. 2 in camp, I'll be moving him up. The health of Bernard also has an impact on Mixon's upside. There should be about 100 targets available for running backs, and if Bernard isn't healthy to start the year, Mixon will see a boost in PPR.
| Bengals touches |
| Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD |
| Joe Mixon | 38% | 171 | 7% | 35 | 25 | 6 |
| Jeremy Hill | 30% | 133 | 4% | 20 | 14 | 4 |
| Giovani Bernard | 17% | 76 | 8% | 45 | 33 | 3 |
| A.J. Green | 0% | 0 | 29% | 150 | 96 | 10 |
| John Ross | 0% | 0 | 12% | 65 | 38 | 4 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0% | 0 | 13% | 68 | 46 | 3 |
| Brandon LeFell | 0% | 0 | 9% | 50 | 31 | 2 |
| Tyler Eifert | 0% | 0 | 15% | 80 | 52 | 7 |
Of note:
- A.J. Green doesn't often get mentioned in the same breath as the top three receivers, but he was on pace for a 1,700-yard season when he got hurt last year. He's as close to that elite tier as one could be, if he's not in it.
- This running back situation will be as dependent on training camp as any. Can Bernard get on the field coming off a knee injury? Does Hill look like he still has a major role? If the answer to both of those questions is "no," then Mixon may vault into Leonard Fournette territory on draft boards. Dave Richard did his own projection for Mixon and had him as a top-25 option at the position.
- If everyone is healthy this could be the best set of weapons Andy Dalton has ever had. He's played like a top-five quarterback when Green and Eifert have both been healthy. He's a huge value for the late-round QB crowd.
- As good as the weapons are, this Bengals offensive line could be dreadful. Whether they're worse at pass protection or run blocking could drastically influence the run/pass split.
The Leftovers
Boyd is really interesting to me. Especially if the Bengals play him on the field with Ross and Green a lot in camp. Boyd averaged six targets per game in the second half as a second-round pick last season. Was that solely because Green was hurt, or does he take another step?
I've largely glossed over the fact that Brandon LaFell led this team in receiving touchdowns and finished second in yards in 2016. That's because he's mostly an annoyance to me in the offense. Every target that goes to LaFell doesn't go to someone that I could be excited about in Fantasy. I'm not drafting him.
