Fantasy Football Week 5 prep: Starts, Sits, Sleepers, Busts & point spread advice for every game on the slate
Fantasy lineup calls -- as chosen by you -- for Week 5
By
Dave Richard
•
7 min read
Week 4 injuries to Joe Mixon and David Montgomery have some managers scrambling in what was already a tough season to find RB consistency. There are glaring Week 5 examples of players you should start and sit. There are also examples of sleepers who could provide unexpected production and big names who could flop based on these Week 5 matchups. Every week we'll break down every game on the slate and pinpoint the players you need to know in every matchup.
The best part is that you get to have a say in who makes this story every week! Follow me on Twitter and look for my weekly #SSSB polls to help me choose who I analyze.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Nothing about the Jets' win last week is real. I'm not sure this is even a small step-up in competition for Zach Wilson, who overcame another slow start to fire off 232 yards and two scores in the second half and overtime versus the Titans. The Falcons gave up 34 points to Washington last week -- their defense isn't good. No one's allowed more passing touchdowns than the Falcons and no one's allowed fewer than the Jets.
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Last week, and especially in the second half, the Jets offense came alive. Zach Wilson threw aggressively and confidently, connecting on a big score with Davis from 53 yards out that showed their synergy and Wilson's arm strength. Davis consistently got open and his 21% target share was lower than in Week 3, but still his second-highest on the season -- an encouraging sign considering the Jets had nearly all of their receivers healthy. Not only have the Falcons allowed the most passing touchdowns this season (11), but they've given up the seventh-most Fantasy points to wide receivers. If they weren't smart enough to consistently double-team Terry McLaurin last week then there's no way they'll change their tune against Davis. I like Davis as at worst a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
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Start Them
Projections powered by
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Through four games, it's Davis who's playing the most between these two, including in the red zone and on goal-to-go plays. But Patterson has simply made the most of his opportunities thanks to his unique athleticism that's seemingly been unlocked by Arthur Smith. There's no other way to explain Patterson's ridiculous efficiency; he leads the Falcons in receiving touchdowns, has only 20 fewer receiving yards than Calvin Ridley (on 20 fewer targets) and only 32 fewer rush yards than Davis (on 22 fewer carries). Of course there's trepidation over whether or not the 30-year-old Patterson can sustain this, but there's also hope that he might get used more because Davis (and other Falcons pass-catchers) aren't playing so well. For now, Fantasy managers should ride the wave of both backs because the Jets have allowed the second-most Fantasy points per game and targets per game (9.5) to running backs this year.
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Sneaky Sleepers
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Zaccheaus has been the Falcons primary slot receiver while Russell Gage has been sidelined. With Calvin Ridley out, they'll probably ask him to move around the formation (55% of his overall snaps have been out wide anyway). He's small but quick, and he came through for at least 12 PPR points in three of four career games with at least six targets, including Week 3 of this year. Hurst will almost certainly see more snaps as well, potentially in the slot when Zaccheaus is out wide. He's been a non-factor in 2021, but he's also been blocking more and running fewer routes. I'm thinking he has a shot at four receptions with a chance to score. Zaccheaus carries the upside; Hurst worth a shot if you're desperate for a tight end.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Drew Lock can keep the Broncos close. A lot of sharp money came in on the Broncos when the line opened at minus-4.5, and only now has it evened out. The Steelers are the way to go here -- for as ugly as they are offensively, their defense should be in good enough shape to force Lock (3-6 as a road starter) into some turnovers.
Sit Them
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Through four games, Gordon has played just two more red-zone snaps and 24 more snaps overall than Williams with a dead-even split on goal-to-go snaps (eight each). Only on third downs does Gordon have an edge on Williams, but even so, both have eight catches this season. Gordon's been a little more efficient, has more rushing touchdowns and has yet to fumble, so he's slightly more appealing. Pittsburgh is one of two defenses (Dallas) to not allow a touchdown to a running back this year, but the squad let up 129 rush yards and 67 receiving yards to the Packers duo last week. I'd expect the Steelers to bounce back in that regard and hold Gordon and Williams to modest totals.
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Sit Him
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Sutton had 141 Air Yards last week from Drew Lock, which sounds amazing until you realize only one of the five targets Lock threw at him was catchable (two were just plain bad decisions). Lock remains an unbridled gunslinger, careless about just how accurate he is and willing to throw deep even if his target is covered. Sutton isn't speeding past anyone in the Pittsburgh secondary, either. Outside of Henry Ruggs, no wide receiver has even 70 yards against the Steelers on the year. There's always appeal to start someone who will get a lot of downfield targets, but the odds certainly suggest another sub-15-point PPR game for Sutton.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Vikings aren't good enough to put the Lions away. I'll admit the Vikings defense is getting a little too much credit here, but we've already seen the Packers and Bears bounce back from bad offensive showings against the Lions. Detroit ranks in the bottom-5 in pass rush pressures and quarterback passer rating allowed. Expect a good game from Kirk Cousins and a Vikings blowout.
Sit Him
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Pretty clearly, Williams was the Lions' best back last weekend ... but he played a season-low 30% of the snaps and ran all of five routes (Swift ran 34). That's your context clue as to how to perceive these guys moving forward -- Swift is the passing downs guy and Williams mixes in primarily on rushing downs. Williams has five total receptions in his last three games. At 4.83 yards per carry allowed, the Vikings aren't a scary matchup for opposing offenses, but the Lions lost excellent center Frank Ragnow to a toe injury and is almost certain to feel that absence in the ground game and in pass protection. It's beginning to feel like Williams is a touchdown-dependent runner with a 50-yard floor. Even with a plum matchup, he's not to be trusted.
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Start Him
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Cousins' 52.6% completion rate in Week 4 was his worst in a calendar year. He was pressured at the highest rate of any quarterback last week and had among the lowest time-to-throw averages at 2.54 seconds. That doesn't figure to be a problem against the Lions, who lost pass rusher Romeo Okwara to a season-ending Achilles injury. You're counting on a bounce-back game from Cousins, which he's done many times before, and you're particularly hoping for the Lions to take advantage of the Vikings pass defense to drive up the score and force Cousins to throw more.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Cincinnati just isn't quite good enough to be a home favorite. Apparently not enough of the betting public is buying the Bengals after their stunning late win. They deserve credit with big wins over the Vikings, Steelers (in Pittsburgh!) and Jags. The Packers have beaten up on bad teams since Week 1 -- this isn't exactly a bad team. If Green Bay is without Jaire Alexander then their secondary could get seriously exposed. I think the home dog is worth going with.
Start Him
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Higgins is the Bengals' physical outside receiver, good for making magic in the red zone. His biggest issue is a lack of explosiveness -- and it might be his only issue. In the two games he played he earned a 26.3% target share from Joe Burrow. That figures to remain relatively steady as the Bengals move against a Packers defense minus their top cornerback. Green Bay's been one of football's heaviest zone-coverage units this year. Higgins' best plays have come against man coverage, but he's certainly capable against any scheme. If you start him, you're aiming for him to collect five-plus receptions while cashing in with a touchdown. I like the chances of that happening -- Higgins still leads Cincy in red-zone targets even though he's missed two games.
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Bust Candidate
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If Joe Burrow wasn't throwing much to his running backs when Joe Mixon was healthy (17.6% target share to his running backs last year, 15% this year), what makes you think that will change when Mixon is out? Perine's best asset is his physicality -- he's good after contact and is a heck of a pass blocker. Both of those assets give him a chance to play a bunch of snaps but it's tough to expect Perine to bust through the Packers' run defense for a ton of yards (no running back has more than 62 yards against them since Week 2). The Bengals remain among the league's worst in yards before contact per rush (0.99, seventh-worst), a sign that Perine's O-line can't help him out too much. Do your best to avoid him, but start him if you don't have another running back with 12-touch potential at your fingertips.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Patriots can score more than 20 points. They haven't been able to do that in three of four games this season, but their implied team total is 24.25 points. New England found 25 points against the Jets thanks to four interceptions. Houston's squad was squashed last week but it's played relatively tough otherwise and might find ways to stay close. The Patriots have won by 10-plus points in just five of their last 20 games including that Jets game.
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
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This one depends on the status of Harris' offensive line -- if four-fifths of the group are unavailable to play, then Harris carries too much caution. If most or all of them are back, I'm good with Harris as a low-end starter in non-PPR and maybe even in PPR as well. We've seen the Patriots give him a nice amount of work in favorable matchups (Weeks 1 and 2), and totally get away from him in unfavorable ones (Weeks 3 and 4). The Texans have allowed the eighth-most Fantasy points to running backs this year but should be worse considering the Jaguars barely ran it on them in Week 1 and the Panthers lost Christian McCaffrey to an injury in Week 3. If you start him, you're hoping for Harris to pull into the end zone at least once with more than 15 carries. That will be easier to accomplish behind a healthy offensive line.
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Bust Candidate
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If Bill Belichick just devised a plan to keep Tom Brady from having a monster day with his receivers, what do you think the chances are for Cooks with Davis Mills? Expect the Patriots to keep a defensive back on top of Cooks to keep him from winning deep while also pressuring Mills. Only two receivers have scored on the Patriots in 2021, one on a deep ball, and no receiver has even 85 yards in a game against them. I'm OK with Cooks as a flex in PPR, but that's about it.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Philadelphia's better than their track record suggests. The Eagles have lost three straight by at least six points and have given up at least 41 points in consecutive games. Sure feels like the oddsmakers are inviting us to take the Panthers. Philadelphia had touchdowns called back on two of its six red-zone drives last week, missing out on eight points in the process. The offense is showing signs of life and Carolina's defense has regressed after a hot start against limp offenses. The Eagles will keep this one close.
Sit Him
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Sanders continues to lead the Eagles backfield (64% of the snaps last week), but with 15 touches in the past two games, he's obviously not touching the ball enough. The Eagles are evolving into a pass-heavy offense, partially because they keep falling behind as their defense struggles. When that happens, Sanders comes off the field and rookie Kenny Gainwell comes on. Gainwell's run a pass route on 72% of his snaps each of the past two weeks, more than Sanders has. Gainwell also has either as many or one fewer touch than Sanders over the past two weeks. The crusher for Sanders? On the season he has two touches inside the 10-yard line, both for negative yardage. Gainwell also has had two touches inside the 10 and scored on both. I fear that Sanders could get phased out of the offense. He's very difficult to trust even going into a suspect matchup against the Panthers.
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Start Him
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It really feels like the only difference between DeVonta Smith's last game and the prior two is that he caught some deep throws. That's a testament to Jalen Hurts getting the ball out on time and to Smith for looking comfortable and fighting on contested catches. There was even a 34-yard touchdown bomb caught by Smith that didn't count because he stepped out of bounds before the grab. With 10 targets last week and at least seven in three of four games, there's plenty of reason to be encouraged. Two of the three receivers to play the Panthers and have at least seven targets delivered a minimum of 11 non-PPR/20 PPR points (the third was Braxton Berrios).
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Everything that happened in Week 4 was a lie. Washington's defense is still a colossal mess and New Orleans' defense isn't quite as bad despite getting depantsed by the Giants last week. That combined with Washington's depleted O-line makes me want to lean with the Saints, even if their offense looks completely foreign to me compared to past years.
Sneaky Sleeper
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McKissic has resumed his role as the Football Team's third-down back, playing 32 of 39 snaps on third and fourth downs over the past three weeks. In two close wins, McKissic not only scored but had five receptions; in a blowout loss to the Bills he saw five touches, probably because Taylor Heinicke was more focused on throwing downfield and not short and sideways. No one should expect McKissic to find the end zone, but New Orleans' run defense has typically been tough. It could behoove Washington to throw to their running backs a little more than usual. That would fit McKissic and make him worth some consideration in full PPR leagues.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Jacksonville's improvements aren't quite good enough. Urban Meyer's social schedule has overshadowed a pretty good showing from the Jaguars offense. They're now set to see a Titans defense that gave up 27 points to three of its past four opponents including the Jets last week. This feels like the perfect spot for the Jaguars to focus, rally and do all they can to finally pick up a win ... or at least keep it close.
Start Him
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D.J. Chark's injury might mean more deep targets for Shenault, but it definitely will mean more targets overall. To wit: he had a 29% target share last week, his highest on the season by 8%. He also ran 11-plus yards on 6 of 22 routes (27%) against the Bengals; prior to the game he had done that on 16 of 102 (16%) routes. With Trevor Lawrence looking better and the Titans pass defense allowing the most Fantasy points to receivers through four games, Shenault is a no-brainer in PPR and a flex consideration in non-PPR.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: A 14-point spread was too much. I can't help but wonder if Brian Flores, a Bill Belichick disciple, will employ a similar defensive strategy to keep the Bucs from scoring a ton. If it were that easy, then why did the Dolphins let up 27-plus points to the Colts, Raiders and Bills? Clearly, the oddsmakers are again asking you to put your hard-earned green on the Bucs and ignore that Brady's bunch has been held to 24 points or fewer against well-schemed defenses in L.A. and New England. The Dolphins have lost by 11-plus points just twice in their past 20 games.
Start Him
Projections powered by
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Gesicki leads all Dolphins in catches and yards (18 for 184) from Jacoby Brissett and has the second-most targets among tight ends (18) over the past two weeks. Three tight ends have scored on the Bucs over the past two games as their secondary has the double-whammy of seeing more pass attempts than any other team and being hammered by injuries. I'm not sure Gesicki will remain a hot commodity once Tua Tagovailoa comes back, so the sell-for-whatever window should remain open until Sunday and only stay open if Gesicki has his third straight game with at least 8 non-PPR/16 PPR points.
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Flex Starter in PPR
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I'd give Waddle another shot this week in PPR leagues (he's a no-go in non-PPR). He ran a few more downfield routes than we've been used to seeing against the Colts, which made him an unappealing target for Brissett. When Waddle did run his typical short, mid-field routes, the Colts collapsed on him. Tampa Bay's pass defense plays a little bit differently and struggled last week to contain slot guy Jakobi Meyers even though they knew he was Mac Jones' top target. The hunch is Waddle's target share will rebound from the four he had last week (he still played 79% of the snaps), especially with Will Fuller sidelined.
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Start Him
Projections powered by
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It took us a while to get back here, but Fournette appears to be the Bucs' preferred running back. Playing a season-high 82% of the snaps last week, Fournette notched 23 touches against the Patriots and totaled 138 yards. He's still scoreless on the season, but perhaps a home matchup against a Dolphins team that's allowed over 100 rush yards to three of four running backs (and at least one rushing touchdown in three of four games) will make you confident in trusting Fournette.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Week 4 was an aberration for the Raiders. It was an ugly first loss for Las Vegas, but it's had a consistent formula of struggling defensively and finding ways to win late. On Monday it caught up with Jon Gruden's crew. The Bears pass rush is starting to improve (14 sacks tied for league lead) and the Raiders O-line has a target on it. Tack on a beleaguered Raiders secondary and there's no way they should be giving so many points to the Bears. Las Vegas has won by six-plus points in six of its last 20 games.
Start Him
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Williams is effectively a test case for the old Fantasy Football adage of "It's all about the matchup." As a player, Williams has shown positives since breaking out in 2018, averaging 4.7 yards per run and catching 61 passes in 31 games. He looked really good last week in place of David Montgomery, impressively bursting and then fighting for a short-yardage score and then juking his way through the Lions defense on multiple plays. And no doubt, he's about to face a Raiders run defense that's ceded 4.6 yards per carry at least one touchdown to an opposing back in every game this year. It does feel a little scary to trust Williams, and this Bears offense and coaching staff in general. We just can't say with certainty that Williams will get a lot of touches. But there is potential for it, and with so many running backs hurt, that along with the favorable matchup is enough to start Williams as a No. 2 option.
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Sit Him
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Sneaky Sleeper
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Mooney has accumulated a target share of at least 20% in each of his past three including a ridiculous 41.2% share in Week 4 against the Lions. By comparison, Robinson's been under an 18% target share in two of his past three, including 17.6% last Sunday. There's more: Mooney's average target depth from Fields over the past two games is nearly 3.0 yards higher than Robinson's, evidence that Fields' downfield tendency is benefitting Mooney. And sadly, neither guy is particularly standing out in the red zone, nor should they be expected to as Fields has actually attempted a pass on just one-third of his 21 red-zone snaps so far this season (two to Robinson, one to Mooney). Las Vegas' pass defense is so bad that both might have quality stat lines, but with Mooney owning a two-target advantage from Fields through four weeks (26 for him, 24 for Robinson), there's simply no good argument to starting Robinson anymore. Mooney has seen more targets and has been more explosive with them.
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Bust Candidate
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Jacobs is totally handicapped by his offensive line, which afforded him 1.08 yards before contact per rush. That's actually great -- in Week 1 he dealt with an impossible minus-0.30 yards before contact per rush. Where there's hope for Jacobs is in his seemingly increasing role in the passing game: While playing a season-high 63% of snaps in Week 4, Jacobs notched a career-best five receptions and ran over 20 routes for the second time in as many games. By comparison, Jacobs ran 20-plus routes just twice in 2020. If you start Jacobs, you're basically hoping he continues to work in a receiving role, which has never consistently been the case with him. You're also hoping he scores, which only two running backs have done against the Bears through four weeks. These uncertainties definitely cap Jacobs' upside, though it does help him and his brutal O-line that Chicago big man Akiem Hicks isn't expected to play.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Chargers don't deserve any credit for their past two wins. This feels like yet another line where the oddsmakers want us to take the Chargers, perhaps because this will be Justin Herbert's toughest matchup so far this season. While it might be true, he's been playing great while Baker Mayfield owns a 25% bad-throw rate and L.A.'s defense is sneaky good. I'll fall for the bait and go with the Bolts.
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
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If Baker Mayfield had been a little more on target last week, Beckham would have had over 130 yards and two touchdowns. I wouldn't even have to write about him, he'd be back to must-start status. Instead, there's worry about Mayfield's accuracy in a tougher matchup against the Chargers. You have to give the Bolts credit -- so far this season they've held Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper to under 85 scoreless yards each. No single wideout has more than 10 non-PPR points against them, and only one has more than 10 PPR points (Lamb). It feels like it's too much to ask of Beckham to come through in a tough matchup with an inconsistent quarterback.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: New York isn't as competitive as its past three games say it is. The Giants looked great last week on offense and did a good enough job on defense to pull out a victory. Naturally, the Cowboys offense has looked smashing nearly every week and should do its part to keep the Giants from winning. Keeping it close is the issue, and that figures to be something New York can keep doing. Besides, the G-men have just seven losses under Joe Judge (out of 13) by seven or more points.
Flex Starter
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Faced with a tough challenge on the road, the Giants O-line gave Daniel Jones time in the pocket (2.88 seconds on average), and he was accurate. Golladay continued to get open on in-breaking routes but had around 40 yards thanks to busted coverage. He's almost certain to see Trevon Diggs -- the cornerback shadowed D.J. Moore quite a bit last week and let up a big game to him, but Golladay isn't as elusive. That along with a better-than-expected Cowboys pass rush and a suddenly plentiful Giants receiving corps makes me nervous to trust Golladay as a No. 2 receiver but I would give him the nod as a flex.
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Start Him
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Fantasy Football shouldn't be complicated. Schultz leads the Cowboys with 15 targets, 12 catches, 138 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games. The Giants have given up a touchdown to a tight end in each game so far this season and appear to be without strong safety Jabrill Peppers on Sunday. While it's true that it's been backup tight ends scoring on Big Blue, there's still plenty of evidence to believe Schultz will remain a fixture in the Dallas offense.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Even without Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will keep it close. On what planet can a Niners team with rookie Trey Lance making his first start compete with the undefeated Cardinals? This reeks of a fishy line that's meant for you to go with the Cardinals. And I'll admit, it's tough to confidently take the Niners to cover when the Cards have won by at least eight points in three of four games. I can't fight it, I think Arizona wins by a touchdown.
Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Despite a number of off-target throws last week, Lance didn't really leave many stats on the field while accumulating 24 Fantasy points. Lance is known just as much for his galloping rushing prowess as he is for his big arm in college, and we've seen plenty of both since August and as recently as his past two quarters. Without taking on any serious rushing threats, Arizona has let up 6.25 yards per carry to quarterbacks, the fifth-worst mark in the league. Even statues like Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins accumulated over 20 yards on the ground. The danger of starting Lance is mitigated by what he offers as a rusher: He's run the ball on 11 of 41 snaps this year, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. That pace suggests he'll have 16 carries, which is admittedly unlikely, but also 64 yards, which does seem fair. I'd expect Kyle Shanahan to find ways for Lance to maneuver through the Cardinals pass defense, particularly with top cornerback Byron Murphy sidelined. Hopefully that keeps him solid as a thrower. He shouldn't be started over anyone who's considered safe -- Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold, to name four -- but the glimmering upside should be inviting enough to start over Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Bills aren't quite good enough to get a win over the Chiefs. Buffalo knows it'll never get the respect it wants until it beats Kansas City. Sean McDermott's squad has a menacing pass rush and an offense that's kicked into overdrive in its past eight quarters. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defensive unit gave up 30 points to the Eagles last week (should have been 38) and has allowed at least 29 points per game. No doubt this figures to be a shoot-out, but getting a couple of points with Buffalo and the better defense in the game feels like the right play.
Start Him
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What's changed with the Bills this season? For starters, they're actually giving their running backs the ball a little bit more -- 22.0 carries per game compared to 18.1 per game in 2020. When they have run it, Moss has been the one getting most of the high-value touches. Since he's been active in Week 2, Moss has dominated red-zone (65%) and inside-the-5 (77%) snaps as well as touches (13 red-zone carries to Devin Singletary's 8) with three rushing touchdowns to Singletary's zero. Moss has also done a little more on his six targets (five catches, 39 yards) than Singletary (four catches, 16 yards). The hunch is those roles will continue in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs' weak run defense. It doesn't mean that Singletary isn't a bad start, by the way, just that Moss should be better.
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Start Him
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Touchdown-dependent tight ends are always a little dicey, but it's not so bad if they're consistently part of high-scoring offenses. Knox has found himself seeing four catches in three of four games this year and setting a full-PPR floor of eight points. Defenses cannot willingly adjust to Knox when the Bills have so many other good options in the passing game. Teams have tried playing man coverage against them over the past three weeks and they've been roasted. The Chiefs like to play a good dose of man coverage, too, so chances are Josh Allen will see some favorable one-on-one matchups for Knox to exploit. You could do worse at your tight end spot.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: After one week, the Ravens are the Ravens again. It's been a roller-coaster ride for Lamar Jackson & Co., but nothing can cure ills like beating up on a backup quarterback. Meanwhile, it took four games and a matchup against a struggling Dolphins team for the Colts to finally win and exceed 24 points. They really don't deserve much credit, and they're on the road for the third straight week. I do worry that the line is a tad overweight for the Ravens, but I can't trust the Colts to keep things close.
Bust Candidate
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Usage metrics suggest it's a matter of time before Pittman breaks out in a major way. Thanks to the 32 targets he's had over the past three games, Pittman is in the top-20 among pass-catchers in targets and Air Yards. And thanks to his quarterback, he also is in the top-five in targets inside the 10-yard line (five). Sadly, thanks to his quarterback, he has no touchdowns. In fact, he has the second-most targets of anyone without a score this year. The Ravens pass defense was lights out last week at Denver and has yielded touchdowns to only small-time, complementary receivers all year. High-target guys like Hunter Renfrow, Kalif Raymond and Courtland Sutton were all held in check. He's fine as a PPR flex, but that's where I draw the line.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Seahawks are as good as they looked last week, not the two weeks before. It's the second game in a row where the Rams aren't as big of a favorite as the public may have expected. You know how that went for L.A. in Week 4. Going on the road on a short week is always tough, and apparently the oddsmakers are certain Russell Wilson will keep up with the Rams on the scoreboard.
Start Him
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Sportsline
Last week wasn't the first time this season the Seahawks pulled Chris Carson for ineffective play; you just noticed because Alex Collins scored. It's very clear the Seahawks will roll with a hot hand approach, but on Thursday that figures to be Collins' job to lose. Last week he looked a little bit swifter than Carson and was able to hit holes quicker than Carson. The Rams didn't allow 100-plus yards to a single running back in 2020 -- they've already ceded two 100-yard games through four weeks including 170 rush yards and two scores to Chase Edmonds and James Conner last Sunday. There's optimism Collins can work as a No. 2 Fantasy rusher.
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Start Him
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So much for easing back into things -- Henderson played 90% of the snaps for L.A., the second time in three games he's handled that much. He also averaged over 6.0 yards per tote and wrangled five receptions. Honestly, given the lack of reliable 15-plus-touch running backs in Fantasy, Henderson qualifies as a must-start no matter who he plays. It just so happens the short-week matchup with a Seahawks defense that's allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 7.8 yards per catch to backs makes things that much better.
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Flex Starter
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Sportsline
Woods is playing a ton and has flashed occasional straight-line speed while getting open against zone coverage, but he simply has not been Matthew Stafford's preferred target nor has he had many plays designed for him. Cooper Kupp's been Stafford's best pal while Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson and Darrell Henderson have been first-read guys on screens and explosive plays. I've seen Woods blocking on some of those plays including Jefferson's touchdown against the Cardinals. If not for the garbage-time drive last week that Woods finished with a touchdown, he would have had his worst game of the year. Sean McVay said this week that the Rams "need to get [Woods] more opportunities." The last time he talked about getting a guy opportunities, DeSean Jackson caught a deep ball for a touchdown. Woods remains somebody you're reluctant to start, but McVay's comment and a matchup against a Seattle defense that's allowed the ninth-most passing yards to wideouts keeps him as a flex-only option.
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