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Christian Watson has the recipe to be a yardage monster. There is a ton of uncertainty baked into his outlook -- an unreliable collegiate data set to draw from, a relatively small rookie season sample size (just 269 routes), and an unpredictable offensive environment amid a likely QB change, to name a few things -- but the framework is there for him to continue to produce ridiculous efficiency metrics.

Drawing targets at a high rate while occupying such a downfield-oriented route tree provides explosive upside -- it is the Julio Jones formula. From a yards per route run standpoint, there hasn't been anyone like Jones in the modern era. The only thing that prevented Julio from positing the most unprecedented stretch of any WR in the history of Fantasy was his aversion to finding the end zone. That does not appear likely to be a problem for Watson, but more on that later.

Over the past five seasons, just four players have recorded a target per route run rate of 25% or higher while also recording an average depth of target of 14+ yards (minimum 250 routes run):

Typically, perimeter field stretchers perform well against man coverage -- the good ones do, at least. Showing an ability to beat man coverage early in an NFL career has proven to be a significant indicator for young receivers, and Watson passed that test with flying colors.

Yard per route run rate vs. man coverage rookie leaders (2017-22):

You can read in more detail about the importance of man coverage splits and what we learned from that data in 2022 in this SportsLine article.

Wide receivers who ranked 90th percentile or above in both target and yard per route run rate vs. man coverage in 2022:

Watson's performance vs. man coverage is just one of the peripheral stats that paints him as a potentially dominant Fantasy option. I went through through each significant advanced metric and how they reflect on Watson and the rest of the 2022 rookie WR/TE class in this SportsLine article.

Julio Jones' Achilles heel was his inability to find the end zone; he only finished with double-digit touchdowns once, and his single-season high was just 10. Watson became a starter in Week 10 and scored seven touchdowns across nine games to close out his rookie season. In terms of drawing red zone targets, only DK Metcalf was better than Watson when given the opportunity in 2022.

Highest percentage of team's red zone targets *when on the field* in 2022:

When on the field, Watson accounted for 42% of the red zone targets and 39% of the end zone targets. For reference, Julio Jones only topped a 30% rate in the red zone twice and topped out at 36%. Watson posted a 42% rate as a rookie.

The sustainability of Watson's outstanding rookie season yard per route run rate going forward will be tied directly to his target rate. If he can continue to draw targets at a high rate while occupying a deep route tree, Watson has the potential to be a Julio Jones or Justin Jefferson-like outlier in the yardage department. And unlike those two players, Watson has already shown an ability to dominate his team's target distribution when in scoring distance.

The most likely result for Watson is that his per-route rates are a bit inflated and will regress over a larger sample size. Those who invested in Chase Claypool or Elijah Moore after their rookie seasons can offer us a sobering reminder not to overreact to incomplete data from a single season.

The important takeaway from Watson's rookie campaign is that his range of outcomes is extremely wide. He showed an ability to dominate red zone and end zone targets as well as the air yardage share, and that combination provides him access to a unique hypothetical Fantasy ceiling.

Watson is one of Jacob Gibbs' 10 breakouts to target in 2023 drafts based on yards per route run data. You can find breakdowns of all 10 breakouts only at SportsLine.