Fantasy & Reality: Stop me if you've heard this one before
It's still been a crazy NFL season, but Dave Richard doesn't want to hear about it or talk about it. But he can't help it. Check out this week's Fantasy & Reality.
As I type this, it is 9:33 p.m. ET on Sunday night. I know where I don't want to begin.
It feels like every week I'm filling up this space with "what a crazy NFL season it's been," so I don't want to go that route. I don't want to ... but it's as if the NFL is reeling me in with some sort of gravitational pull this week.
Dave, they're saying, put that slice of pizza down and tell the masses about how Ben Obomanu outperformed Torry Holt, and he did it in one half!
I mean, you have to understand what we're seeing here. Eighty-seven-year-old Vinny Testaverde outdid Brett Favre in Week 6, and Testaverde wasn't in the NFL in Weeks 1 through 5.
Vinny Testaverde!
The man was golfing, playing cards and knocking back pina coladas a week ago (at least that's what I'd be doing if I was a retired NFL quarterback). A week later, he not only picked up the Panthers offense like he's been running it since training camp, but he managed the game to perfection for Carolina and played the Cardinals on a Steve Smith go route to perfection.
But I digress. Enough about the weird, wacky and wild ... oh, wait, the 0-4 Saints just scored on the 3-2 Seahawks again ... let's get off this topic.
I know! I'll dish on Larry Johnson, who finally delivered in Week 6 with over 100 rush yards and a touchdown on the Bengals (more on them later). Johnson should have had two touchdowns, by the way, but he fumbled one out of the end zone. Strange. This was Johnson's second 100-yard game of the season, and the touchdown he had in Week 6 was his first of the year.
Furthermore, who in their right mind would have believed that LJ would have to wait this long to put up his first big game? Sure, I know I was against Johnson from the jump this year, but I assume he would have scored before Week 6. Just another example of this unbelievable, topsy-turvy ...
Wait a minute. Not gonna do it.
Surely I can go with Tom Brady and the Patriots, who continue to dominate the league at a break-neck pace. Twenty-one touchdowns through six games. That's got to be a record, right? It's easily his best start, and that's saying something considering Brady's Super Bowl-laden history. Adding Randy Moss definitely helped, but it just seems like one of those years ...
Ugh! I can run, but I can't hide.
Even the bye weeks are backwards! Six teams were off this week, and six more will be off again in Week 8? What exactly does Commish Goodell have against us Fantasy owners?!
And it's not just the NFL, either. College football is upside-down, too. The top two teams in the nation lose on the same day? Notre Dame is playing worse than The Sisters of the Poor?
I am determined to write about something other than this frantic start to the NFL season. I won't write about the 3-3 Browns (not here, anyway). I won't touch Ronnie Brown's campaign. I won't go on about the hapless Rams.
I will come up with something -- something that's not pertaining to how abnormal this Fantasy Football season has become.
Something. Anything.
So, how 'bout those Colorado Rockies?
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: You cannot run on the Chicago Bears. Last week, rookie DeShawn Wynn put up 78 rush yards and a score on the Bears. This week, another rookie did a little bit better: Adrian Peterson's three-touchdown, 224-yard rushing day not only locked him in as the rookie of the year, but also exposed the Bears' run defense (P.S., Chester Taylor added 83 yards). Each of Peterson's touchdown runs were for at least 35 yards -- that's amazing. The Bears have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in each of their last four games. They're not who we thought they were.
Reality: I'm still not sold on Donovan McNabb. This isn't a knock on McNabb as much as it is on Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, his top two receivers. Most of Curtis' big plays this season came on defensive breakdowns, and those defenses were among the worst in the league. Brown, a third-year receiver, has yet to get 100 yards or even a touchdown in a game this season (he actually surpassed the first four weeks of receiving stats he tallied in Week 6). Until these receivers play with this kind of consistency against all comers, McNabb is still a shaky No. 1 Fantasy QB.
Fantasy: Earnest Graham and Brian Leonard will be fine as No. 3 Fantasy RBs. Gulp. I know both of these guys went up against top defenses, but their stat lines are the stuff that Fantasy owners have nightmares about. Kevin Faulk, the Patriots' No. 3 RB, had more yards than Graham and Leonard combined. Hey guys -- get us at least 50 yards!
Reality: Cincinnati is a one-trick pony. I think the Bengals are cooked. Take away their passing game and they're no better than any zero-win club out there. Rudi Johnson, until he's healthy, cannot be counted on and Kenny Watson is better if used sparingly. And don't get me started on the defense (how 'bout that Damon Huard call?!). But, with the Bengals expected to be behind and without a run game, the three Fantasy studs -- Carson Palmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson -- are very usable. That's not news, but anyone the Bengals play against are must-starts, too (Thomas Jones owners, get ready).
Fantasy: Going with Travis Henry is the right move. So Henry's lawyers have three more weeks to prepare their case against the NFL. That pushes Henry's eligibility into November. That's nice -- except his next two matchups are vs. Pittsburgh and vs. Green Bay, one great and one good run defense. Considering the shape of Denver's offensive line and Henry's future, play hot potato with this guy. In fact, if you're one of Henry's owners who didn't trade for Selvin Young, consider taking what you can get from the owner who has Young in exchange for Henry.
Reality: The Chargers have found themselves, and their name is: LT and 10 other guys. Kudos to Norv Turner, who has seemingly relented in trying to build the Chargers around Philip Rivers (for now) and appears to be willing to stick with running LaDainian Tomlinson as much as he needs to. The Bolts get a week off before hosting Houston in Week 8, but expect them to start working Tomlinson, then working in Rivers and the pass attack. Rivers is still a decent Fantasy play, but he's behind too many studs to start in standard 10-team leagues.
Strategy Session
Can Tom Brady keep this pace up?
Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in every game this season. He's topped 300 yards twice and 250 yards in all but one contest. He has just two interceptions this season. He has a baby with an actress while dating a supermodel. I know Fantasy points don't count for that, but it still helps illustrate the point that Brady is the perfect Fantasy Football guy to own, regardless of position.
And it's not rocket science as to why he's doing so well. Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth have replaced Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney and Troy Brown as his lead receivers. His offensive line remains one of the best, most durable units in the NFL. And the playcalling has been tilted in the passing game's favor because New England's run attack has been battered by injuries, which continued in Week 6 with Sammy Morris (chest) leaving at Dallas.
Fellow Fantasy writer Jamey Eisenberg pointed out that Brady is on pace for 56 passing touchdowns, which would top Peyton Manning's record of 49 set just a few years back. If he's going to do that, he's going to need the following things to happen:
1. He must stay healthy. This is obvious.
2. New England's offensive line must stay healthy. Just ask Marc Bulger what it's like to play behind five turnstiles.
3. Randy Moss must stay healthy. This is also obvious, but a little more concerning. Moss is 30 and hasn't been the picture of health over his career. Without him, defenses will breathe easier and keep Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth (relatively) in check. I don't think it's a huge stretch to say that if Moss was a Packer, Brady wouldn't have 21 touchdowns through six weeks.
4. The Patriots run game must continue to stay grounded. Sounds crazy, but if New England's going to have Brady throw for three scores a week, they're going to have to need his arm. If Laurence Maroney's groin heals and they lean on him, Brady's not going to have a huge game. This is something Fantasy owners are willing to live with -- once or twice this season before the Fantasy playoffs.
So let's look at Brady's remaining schedule. Not only will he have difficult challenges vs. Washington in Week 8, at Indianapolis in Week 9, at Baltimore in Week 13 and vs. Pittsburgh in Week 14, but every other single opponent Brady faces the rest of the season will be amping up to stop him. The target is on his chest, and the Patriots are in the bulls-eye. Even the 0-6 Dolphins, who host the Patriots in Week 7 and face them again in Week 16, will be amped up to slow down the Patriots.
Speaking honestly (I am an owner of Brady in multiple leagues), I do not think he will keep this up. I think eventually teams will stack up against the pass and dare New England to run. Teams with strong defensive lines will try this. It will slow down Brady and limit his stats.
But, it won't slow down the Patriots. I think this is a 16-0 team. But I don't think Brady will throw 50-plus touchdown passes.
All that said, he's still a pretty good Fantasy QB.
Is Shaun Alexander Fantasy history?
Many analysts are breaking out the "Omigosh, he's 30" argument on Alexander, while others point to his fractured left wrist. Well, the man showed within the last 12 months that he has tread on the tire, and so long as he's not running on his hands, the wrist isn't a big issue.
Let's start with the stats. After posting two 100-yard games in the first three weeks, Alexander has 138 rush yards total over his last three with no touchdowns. But what's even more alarming is his yards-per-carry average:
| Week 1 | vs. TB | 27 | 105 | 3.9 |
| Week 2 | at ARI | 18 | 70 | 3.9 |
| Week 3 | vs. CIN | 21 | 100 | 4.8 |
| Week 4 | at SF | 25 | 78 | 3.1 |
| Week 5 | at PIT | 11 | 25 | 2.3 |
| Week 6 | vs. NO | 14 | 35 | 2.5 |
Take away that game against Cincinnati's poor defense, and Alexander's average has gone downhill this season. Even against tough run defenses like the Steelers, Alexander should be expected to get more than 2.3 yards per carry. And against a Saints defense ranked 17th against the run, Alexander had two rushes for five or more yards, his first and fourth touches of the game. In the second half, Alexander was mysteriously sidelined while RB/FB Leonard Weaver played, mostly pass blocking as the Seahawks threw to get back in the game.
Alexander has three 20-plus-yard rushes this season and six total dating back to the 2006 season, including the '06 postseason. Compare that with his 2005 total (he had 27 runs of 20-plus yards and six games without a 20-yard rush) and you'll see that something's different here.
Steve Hutchinson was his All-Pro guard until 2005, and while he might not have a lot to do with Alexander's statistical drop, maybe the offensive line he has now does. But I also think he's far less aggressive than he has been, and it could be because of the injuries he's endured over the past 12 months.
Ultimately, the guy looks like he's lost a step.
If you own Alexander, take his next two games to evaluate him. He should perform well -- not just good, but great -- hosting the Rams and playing at Cleveland, with a bye week in between. Neither of those teams could stop a baby crawling behind five offensive linemen. After those games, Alexander and the Seahawks don't have it too tough, but we both can agree that Alexander's long-term future doesn't look good regardless of his upcoming schedule.
Don't deal Alexander yet. Use his next two games to gain value. If you try to trade him now, you'll get Jason Wright and Lee Evans in return. Alexander should pump up his stats over the next three weeks, and that's when you trade him in for a decent RB with some upside (Maurice Jones-Drew?) and a good Fantasy WR (Wes Welker?).
Parting shots
• Back to Brady. I'm going to just put this out there: If you're running wild with Brady -- and someone is in every league this year -- make a move to pick up his real backup, Matt Cassel, if you can afford the roster room. After all, you know how this Fantasy season has been, and you don't want to be caught without those valuable New England statistics.
• I'm not jumping on the Cleo Lemon bandwagon. Coming back against the Browns defense is one thing. Let's see how Lemon does at home against the Patriots in Week 7, or vs. the Giants in London in Week 8. I predict he'll total less than two touchdowns over those two games.
• Speaking of the Browns, I cannot say enough about their offense. The offensive line has set the stage for Derek Anderson to be a stat machine, thanks mostly to Braylon Edwards, who is now a must-start Fantasy WR (easy for me to say after he catches three touchdown passes). If the Browns had a defense, they'd win the AFC North.
• Vinny Testaverde!
• I want to hear from Rams fans on this one: If the St. Louis brass were to put Steven Jackson on the shelf for the season, keep Marc Bulger off the field and just say "We're building towards 2008," would you mind?
• Dear LaDainian: Thanks for those touchdowns. Love, all the Fantasy owners who took you first overall. P.S., Keep it up.
• Raiders RB Dominic Rhodes comes off the suspended list and gets ... one rush that got called back because of a penalty. Money well spent by Al Davis.
• The difference between Drew Brees in Weeks 1-5 and Drew Brees in Week 6 is that he had time to throw, seemingly concentrated on his throws, and utilized a lot of players, not including Marques Colston. Lance Moore is the super-sleeper of the week.
• I don't think we're far from calling David Garrard a No. 1 Fantasy QB. Jacksonville's equation for success is strong, stout defense with a time-killing offense (they rank fifth in time of possession). So long as Garrard doesn't morph into a turnover machine, he's going to post modest stats that total around 15 points per week in Fantasy play. He's had superb consistency in that regard this year. The best part? Garrard is owned in only 67 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. Go get him.
Have a question or comment for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.















