Michael Fabiano gives Fantasy Football owners a look into next season with his 2006 Player Rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason based on depth chart changes, personnel moves and injuries.

The word jinx is defined as "one that brings bad luck," or "to foredoom to failure or misfortune."

Fantasy Footballers who believe in jinxes or superstitions might now want to pass on Shaun Alexander, one of the NFL's most prominent performers, after it was announced that he would be on the cover of EA Sports' NFL video game, "Madden 2007."

Since 2001, players who have been featured on the cover of this ultra-popular video game have succumbed to injuries, bad numbers or even both soon after their picture was used to promote the product.

Former Titans running back Eddie George was on the cover of the 2001 version. He recorded an incredible 1,509 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2000, but those numbers fell to 939 yards and five touchdowns in 2001.

Next in line was Daunte Culpepper, who was the cover man in '02. Between 2001-2002, Culpepper dealt with injuries and a serious decrease in statistical success. He threw for 3,937 yards with 33 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 2000, but those numbers fell to 2,612 yards with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (11 games) in 2001 and 3,859 yards with 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 2002.

Like a black cat had crossed the road ahead of him, Marshall Faulk was the next to fall victim to the Madden jinx in '03. An absolute statistical beast for most of his first eight pro seasons, Faulk become the league's most explosive back from 1999-2001 and was the first overall selection in most drafts. However, injuries started to hamper him in 2002 and continued after his stint on the cover. In fact, Faulk recorded his lowest number of total yards (1,108) in six seasons after his appearance on Madden and has never been the same.

Michael Vick was the next to have the black cloud hang over his head in '04. The highlight reel in cleats suffered a broken ankle in a preseason contest against Baltimore, missed all but five starts in 2003 and has not been as effective from a statistical perspective since the curse flattened him. The next brave soul to take on the cover jinx was Ray Lewis -- he did produce solid numbers in 2004 but was forced to miss most of the 2005 season due to injuries.

The final member of this list of unfortunates is Donovan McNabb, who appeared set to make like the 2004 Boston Red Sox and break the curse after the first seven weeks, but he too became a victim of the fat man. He lost his best offensive weapon, Terrell Owens, due to off-the-field problems and then missed seven starts due to an injured groin that required a surgical procedure -- the first such procedure of his career.

Now comes Alexander, whose list of accomplishments last season included an NFL rushing title (1,880 yards), a record 29 touchdowns, an MVP award and an appearance in Super Bowl XL. Will the Madden jinx cause him to falter due to injuries or experience an unexplained decrease in statistical success based on the fate of the six previous players?

While I don't subscribe to superstitions (in most cases), there are those Fantasy Footballers who won't leave the house without their rabbit's foot or wear the same underwear when their favorite team is in the midst of a winning streak. As a result, the "Madden jinx" can add more fuel to the values of Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson, both of whom should be ranked ahead of Alexander -- curse or no curse.

First of all, Alexander has little chance to duplicate the numbers he recorded last season. Since 1960, eight running backs (Alexander, Priest Holmes, Emmitt Smith, John Riggins, Terrell Davis, Terry Allen, Joe Morris, Larry Johnson) have rushed for 20-plus touchdowns in a season. Holmes and Smith are the lone backs to accomplish the feat twice.

While Seattle's offense will continue to run through Alexander, the addition of Nate Burleson to a core of wide receivers that includes veterans Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram could equate to more chances for the pass attack next season. Furthermore, the loss of OG Steve Hutchinson will hurt the effectiveness of the offensive line.

The fact that more and more commissioners have added receptions to their scoring systems also makes Alexander less attractive than Johnson and Tomlinson. Alexander's receptions and receiving yards have decreased in each of the past four seasons -- he had a mere 15 catches last season -- while his carries have soared from 295 in 2002 to 370 in 2005.

That's another reason for owners to pass on Alexander in the top two -- no back has had more regular-season carries over the past two seasons (723). Clinton Portis is second with 695 carries, while Edgerrin James is third with 694.

The final thought on Alexander and his status as the third-best back is the competition -- Johnson and Tomlinson are two of the most versatile and durable featured backs in the league, and neither has reached his ultimate statistical potential.

Based on his numbers from nine starts last season, Johnson would have finished with the most all-purpose yards (2,893), rushing yards (2,402) and total touchdowns (30) ever recorded in the NFL. The former Penn State standout has 1,800-yard, 25-touchdown potential next season, even if Holmes decides to return for another season.

Tomlinson faltered down the stretch last season and was a goat for owners who lost out on a chance at a postseason berth, but he still finished with 51 receptions, 1,832 all-purpose yards and 23 total touchdowns. With Philip Rivers now under center, Tomlinson could see even more work in the San Diego offense in an effort to take some of the pressure off the inexperienced quarterback.

I have no lack of respect for Alexander -- I would take him if available with the third overall selection -- but Johnson and Tomlinson are the better choices for next season, and neither has the Madden curse over their heads. And if Alexander does fall, next season's cover athlete has to be considered a potential bust candidate.

Notebook

  • The NFL has denied Ricky Williams' appeal on a positive drug test and have suspended him for the entire 2006 season. Williams, a four-time violator of the league's substance abuse program, said in a statement that he wants to return to pro football in 2007. As for the immediate implications, RB Ronnie Brown becomes a true featured back and is now a serious breakout candidate who warrants a second-round selection in seasonal drafts. Williams now has little-to-no value in most formats, though he could still have some appeal in deeper dynasty leagues. RB Sammy Morris moves to second on the depth chart, with Travis Minor third.
  • After three months with more questions that answers, QB Brett Favre has decided to return to the Green Bay Packers for at least one more season. He threw a league-high 29 interceptions last season after injuries ravaged the entire offense, but the returns of RBs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are both positives. There are still issues that surround the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback -- none more prevalent than the status of WR Javon Walker -- but it's hard not to consider Favre one of the top 12 quarterbacks and a starter in most leagues.
  • Reports have surfaced that Bears RB Thomas Jones wants to be traded, and the team that continues to come across in rumors is the Indianapolis Colts. Jones, who is now represented by Drew Rosenhaus, has stopped reporting to Chicago's voluntary offseason program and isn't thrilled with the prospect of a two-back situation with Cedric Benson. A trade to the Colts, while all speculation at this time, would make a lot of sense due to Indianapolis' lack of a featured back and Jones' abilities as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. A trade would be detrimental to Dominic Rhodes' value as a sleeper and could push Jones into the top 10 at his position. It would also make Benson a serious sleeper candidate.
  • The Denver Post continues to call Ron Dayne the Broncos No. 1 running back. The fact that the team traded one of its first-round selections in the draft to San Francisco is a positive for Dayne, but that doesn't mean head coach Mike Shanahan won't take a chance on a back in the second round (Clinton Portis, Tatum Bell ). Shanahan is so unpredictable that Bell could be a greater sleeper than Dayne, but the past has shown that one of the two should emerge into a solid No. 2 back.

Reader Feedback

Noah Bledsoe: Nice touch with the green and red arrows on the player rankings, but I have to question where Reuben Droughns ranks on the list. He finished as the 10th best running back in my league last season, and I think he'll score more touchdowns this season. Shouldn't he be on the same level as Brian Westbrook?

M.F.: Noah, one aspect of the rank list to remember is that I take into account a back's overall skills, so a back who is prominent as a receiver out of the backfield has more value than someone who is more one dimensional. That's the reason I still have James ranked ahead of Portis and Rudi Johnson, for example. It's also the reason Westbrook is listed as 11th and Droughns 21st, which isn't a terrible projection. That position makes Droughns a surefire No. 2 back in leagues with 12-plus teams.

Ted Kogon: You have Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger and Eli Manning ahead of McNabb? If you're taking bets, be sure to count me in. McNabb won't have Terrell Owens, but even without him he was a Top 3 quarterback.

M.F.: Unless Philadelphia acquires Javon Walker via trade, I think it's fair to list McNabb as the No. 9 quarterback on the list. His numbers B.O. (Before Owens) weren't spectacular -- I doubt he was ever a top 3 quarterback without him -- and his core of receivers at this point don't impress me. Injuries are a concern, but Warner has far more weapons on offense and I expect Bulger to have his best season as a pro under the guidance of Scott Linehan. Manning has 30-touchdown potential and could record career bests across the board.

Josh: With the recent addition of Keyshawn Johnson and the prospect of a healthy DeShaun Foster, I see Jake Delhomme as a better option than Michael Vick.

M.F.: Great point on Delhomme, Josh. I think he and Vick are close in value because the Falcons quarterback will run the ball far more, which is an added dimension at the position. Depending on the scoring system, however, Delhomme could have more value in drafts.

Tony: I think your running back rankings are a little off at the top because of where you place Edgerrin James. The top 10 should be 1. Alexander; 2. Tomlinson; 3. Larry Johnson; 4. Clinton Portis; 5. Tiki Barber; 6. Rudi Johnson; 7. James; 8. LaMont Jordan; 9. Steven Jackson; 10. Carnell Williams.

M.F.: Since I figure receptions into the mix, James has the slight edge on Portis. In leagues that don't reward points for catches, however, the list you've compiled is valid. However, I disagree with the top three -- I have Johnson first, Tomlinson second and Alexander third. Fear the Madden curse!

Harry: I think Billy Volek, not Steve McNair should have been the quarterback in Tennessee last season! Why won't the Titans give him a chance to start?

M.F.: McNair could be released after the draft, so you might get your wish with Volek next season. In that case, Volek would be a nice sleeper and serve as a mentor to a rookie quarterback (Matt Leinart, Vince Young). McNair has been the face of the franchise, however, so Volek won't receive a chance to start if McNair remains.

Mailbag

D.P., Jacksonville, Fla.: What's your take on Aaron Brooks? What kind of numbers do you think he can produce in Oakland?

M.F.: The presence of WR Randy Moss is an obvious positive, but Brooks has been inconsistent for most of his career regardless of the talent around him. Still, I expect him to have some monster starts against weaker AFC West opponents and record around 3,500 passing yards, 20-25 touchdowns and 10-15 interceptions.

Drew Woolsey, Mancos, Colo.: Does the value of Antonio Gates fall with Philip Rivers now the quarterback in San Diego?

M.F.: I think it does somewhat, but not enough to drop him from No. 1 on the tight end rank list. Gates will continue to be prominent in the San Diego offense and serve a safety net for Rivers when his protection breaks down, so a season with 80 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and seven to nine touchdowns is well within reach.

Nick Miller: Who will become the new superstar in the Minnesota now that Daunte Culpepper is in Miami?

M.F.: My guess is RB Chester Taylor, who signed with the Vikes in the offseason and should see 20-30 touches a starter under new head coach Brad Childress. He's a solid sleeper and will be selected in one of the first four rounds in most drafts

You can e-mail your questions to us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com Be sure to put Attn: In the Trenches in the subject field. Please be aware that due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

Michael Fabiano is the champion of the 2005 Gridiron Guru League II.