2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes odds, contenders, horses: Horse racing insider releases surprising picks, predictions
Bob Weir is one of eight members of Beyer's speed figure team and revealed his 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks
By
CBS Sports Staff
•
3 min read
The road to the Kentucky Derby continues on Saturday when a dozen three-year-olds leave the starting gate in the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes. The $250,000 race is the first Kentucky Derby points prep race this year at Tampa Bay Downs, and the winner will receive 10 qualifying points towards the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Multiple horses in the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes lineup could be pointed to the track's most important Derby prep race, the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6. The Dale Romans-trained Smiley Sobotka is the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes odds.
Nova Rags (4-1) and Boca Boy (5-1) are second and third on the odds board, respectively, in the 2021 Sam F. Davis field. Post time is 5:02 p.m. ET. With a wide-open field ready to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider Bob Weir has to say before making any 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks, considering the epic run he's on.
Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.
Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.
Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. In June, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5, with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Last Sunday, he nailed the late Pick 4 at Sam Houston Race Park. Anyone who has followed Weir is way up.
Now, Weir has handicapped the 2021 Sam F. Davis field, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see his coveted picks here.
Top 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes predictions
One shocker: Weir is almost completely fading Smiley Sobotka, even though he is the morning-line favorite at 3-1. This son of Brody's Cause made his debut last August, finishing second. He won his next start before finishing as the runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs.
However, in his most recent race, Smiley Sobotka received an advantageous pace setup, staying close to the average early on, and he's not likely to get that friendly setup on Saturday with Boca Boy, Nova Rags and Candy Man Rocket also in the mix. Weir does not have Smiley Sobotka among his top three 2021 Sam F. Davis contenders.
Another curveball: Weir is high on Candy Man Rocket, even though he's a 10-1 long shot. He's the target for anyone looking for a huge payday. This three-year-old son of Candy Ride finished seventh in his debut on Nov. 22 at Churchill Downs, but he returned on Jan. 9 and won his second career start by 9 1/4 lengths.
Candy Man Rocket enters Saturday's Sam F. Davis 2021 with the best Beyer Speed Figure (85) in the field. Even though he's stretching beyond 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is well versed in getting horses to go longer. "Candy Man Rocket may just have more talent than others," Weir tells SportsLine. Weir is including Candy Man Rocket on all of his tickets.
How to make 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks
Weir's top pick is a horse who "has every right to improve as a three-year-old." He also is high on another double-digit long shot who can spice up your payday. Weir is including these horses in his exactas, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes 2021? And which double-digit long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest Sam F. Davis odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Sam F. Davis.
2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes odds
| Program # | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hidden Stash | 10-1 |
| 2 | Joe Man Joe | 20-1 |
| 3 | Known Agenda | 6-1 |
| 4 | Millean | 12-1 |
| 5 | Smiley Sobotka | 3-1 |
| 6 | Runway Magic | 8-1 |
| 7 | Boca Boy | 5-1 |
| 8 | Nova Rags | 4-1 |
| 9 | Candy Man Rocket | 10-1 |
| 10 | Ricochet | 15-1 |
| 11 | Lucky Law | 20-1 |
| 12 | Last Investment | 30-1 |
