2015 Masters: What stats should we be paying attention to this year?
The only number that matters at Augusta is the lowest winning score on Sunday evening. The question, though, is how to get there. Let's take a look.
By
Kyle Porter
•
3 min read
When Tiger Woods destroyed Augusta National at the 1997 Masters, the talk surrounding the destruction was all about length.
"He's too long" and "he hits wedges into every hole" were common themes.
Has anything really changed since that year?
Woods has gone on to win three more tournaments, even after the course was lengthened. The last three have been won by two of the biggest bombers on tour (Bubba Watson and Adam Scott).
The only number that matters, ultimately, is the final stroke total for the winner of this tournament, but how many ways are there to get to that spot?
We've already looked at how important it is to play holes Nos. 7, 13 and 18 incredibly well, but what about when it comes to overall play for the week?
Let's take a gander at the most important stats when it comes to the Masters.
The Masters is a difficult tournament to dissect because some of the more valuable stats (strokes gained putting and strokes gained tee-to-green) are unavailable.
For the purpose of this post, we'll mainly look at driving distance and accuracy, greens in regulation and total putts over the last half decade of tournaments to try and tab what someone needs to excel at to win a green jacket.
Neil Paine of Five Thirty Eight wrote a terrific post leading into the 2014 Masters in which he tried to predict who would win the Masters.
In doing so, he eliminated one interesting element from the formula.
"...the average green jacket winner since 1980 has hit fairways at a rate 1.6 percentage points below the tour average in the preceding season."
Distance off the tee, though?
It is paramount.
"For every 17 additional yards per drive a player hit above the PGA Tour average in the previous season, he could expect to exceed his basic 72-hole Masters results by one stroke."
"By contrast, 17 of the 25 most disappointing Masters performances since 1980 (compared with the expectation generated by adjusted scoring average) belonged to below-average power hitters off the tee."
These are all predictive measurements from Paine, though. What about the week of the tournament? What about stats from the actual event?
In 2014, Watson led the field in driving by nearly two yards and was fifth in greens in regulation. By contrast, he wasn't even in the top 10 in putts per hole (strokes gained putting are not available for the Masters).
In 2013, Adam Scott was 18th in driving distance and first in greens in regulation. In 2012, Watson again was fourth in driving distance and fourth in greens in regulation.
Interestingly, in 2011 Masters winner Charl Schwartzel was just 44th in driving distance and 42nd in greens in regulation. He putted out of his mind that week, needing just under 27 putts a round to round out his card.
He's the only champ of the last five, however, to putt anywhere close to that well on the week. In 2010, Phil Mickelson was second in driving distance but pretty average in putting and greens in regulation.
I'm with Paine on this (he's talking about predictions, I'm talking about the week of the event):
"And for all of the breathless reverence given to Augusta’s trademark slippery greens, putting skill isn’t a significant predictor of those who will stray from expectations, either."
It would appear, Schwartzel aside, that the formula for success in a Masters is being long as hell off the tee and not missing greens. You can be slightly above average in putting for the week and still win the tournament.
I suspect the reason for this is that it's insanely difficult to scramble around Augusta's speedy greens. If you're long, it's easier to hit greens in regulation. If you hit greens in regulation, you can get away with pars at the par-4s because the par-5s are easily birdie-able.
That bodes well for Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson (among several others).
It's a pretty straightforward formula because Augusta is a pretty straighforward course. The difficult part? Actually going and doing it.
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