paul-casey-2021-match-play.png
Getty Images

The big events have been stacking up for the PGA Tour, and this week's WGC-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club is the second World Golf Championship tournament in five weeks (and, oh yeah, two of those weeks in between included The Players and an elevated-status Arnold Palmer Invitational). The WGC-Dell Match Play is always a refreshing (and welcomed) break from the long slog of 72-hole stroke-play events played on the PGA Tour, and in the middle of March Madness brackets gone awry (which is all of them), it's always fun to have another 64-team (or 64-player) sheet to fill out.

Let's take a closer look at this week's contest with odds and prop bets provided via William Hill Sportsbook.

Event information

What: WGC-Dell Match Play
When: March 24-28
Where: Austin Country Club -- Austin, Texas

Three things to know

1. Ryder preview: The Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits is still six months away, but this is one of the few opportunities we have to get these kind of match-play games that can serve as a facsimile for the actual event. My final four -- Jon Rahm vs. Patrick Cantlay and Paul Casey vs. Bryson DeChambeau -- includes four 2021 Ryder Cuppers, but there are plenty of other potential juicy matchups. Will we get Justin Thomas-Jordan Spieth in the sweet 16? How about Patrick Reed-Jordan Spieth to go to the final four? Rory McIlroy-Jordan Spieth in the final four would also be a delight, but maybe not as much as a Tyrrell Hatton-Bryson DeChambeau matchup on the other side. There are plenty of combinations here, and hopefully at least a few of them come to fruition this weekend.

2. ORU? Abilene Christian? Upsets abound this week because playing one match against one other player is akin to playing a quarter of a college basketball game. It might not be the fairest way to determine the best team (or player), but it's certainly intense and a hell of a lot of fun. Here's Justin Ray with the statistical details.

Since the WGC Match Play switched to pool play in 2015, only 35% of the top-seeded players have advanced out of their respective groups into the round of 16. Upsets are still everywhere in this event: in the four years it has been held at Austin Country Club, a player seeded 50th or lower has reached the quarterfinals or further seven times.

3. Good work: You make around $50,000 if you hit just one tee shot at this week's tournament, and by Saturday morning, you're playing matches for at least $150,000 (roughly the difference in prize money from Round of 16 to the quarterfinals). That's not a huge deal to some of the players in this field, but to others it might be. Also, it's a fun way to frame various matches in the later stages of the tournament.

Want the sharpest DFS advice, picks and data-driven golf analysis? Listen below and subscribe to The First Cut Golf podcast where we explain what's happening on the course so you can win off of it.

Grading the field

Nearly all of the top 50 players in the world will be in attendance for the last big warmup before the Masters (which is in just two weeks!). Brooks Koepka (No. 12) is out with a right knee injury, and Tiger Woods (No. 61) is out as he heals from his horrific car crash, but nearly all the other big-time players -- Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau included -- will tee it up for at least three days in Austin. Grade: A+

The rules

The rules for this event were changed several years ago so that every player is guaranteed three rounds. Group play takes place from Wednesday to Friday as each golfer in the four-golfer pods faces one of the other three golfers in his pod in an 18-hole match-play round (one round per day, and you play everyone in your pod by Friday). The top performer in each pod (16 total) will advance to Saturday's knockout round. Two match-play rounds are played on Saturday, and two are played on Sunday before a champ is crowned at the end of the week.

Group scoring: 1 point for a win, 0.5 points for a tie and 0 points for a loss. Whichever player in each pod has the most points at the end of three matches advances. If there is a tie (or if multiple players are tied), there will be a sudden-death playoff on Friday.  

The groups

Here's a look at all 16 groups going into Wednesday's festivities (the top 16 seeds were determined by Official World Golf Ranking).

  • Group 1: Dustin Johnson, Kevin Na, Robert MacIntyre, Adam Long
  • Group 2: Justin Thomas, Louis Oosthuizen, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar
  • Group 3: Jon Rahm, Ryan Palmer, Shane Lowry, Sebastian Munoz
  • Group 4: Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, J.T. Poston
  • Group 5: Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Antoine Rozner
  • Group 6: Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day, Andy Sullivan
  • Group 7: Patrick Reed, Joaquin Niemann, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Group 8: Tyrrell Hatton, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Matt Wallace
  • Group 9: Webb Simpson, Paul Casey, Mackenzie Hughes, Talor Gooch
  • Group 10: Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Carlos Ortiz, Brian Harman
  • Group 11: Rory McIlroy, Cam Smith, Lanto Griffin, Ian Poulter 
  • Group 12: Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak, Will Zalatoris, Dylan Frittelli 
  • Group 13: Viktor Hovland, Abraham Ancer, Bernd Wiesberger, Kevin Streelman
  • Group 14: Daniel Berger, Harris English, Brendon Todd, Erik van Rooyen
  • Group 15: Matt Fitzpatrick, Matthew Wolff, Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth
  • Group 16: Sungjae Im, Victor Perez, Marc Leishman, Russell Henley

WGC-Dell Match Play picks

Winner (25-1): He's been the best player in the world in 2021 if you're only looking at strokes gained. Casey is one of eight golfers averaging 2.0 or more strokes gained per round, and he's also first from tee to green. He has six straight top-12 finishes across multiple tours and quietly finished T5 at The Players. His best showings here came in 2009 and 2010 when he finished second both years.
Quarterfinalist (14-1 to win): Rahm's success has been quiet this year because he has not yet won, but he's second behind Casey from tee to green. Also has a runner-up finish on this course back in 2017 when Dustin Johnson clipped him in the finale. That 14-1 number to win is interesting, especially since his group is not among the best.
Sleeper (35-1): Top 17 in his last three events (all monster tournaments). He was a quarterfinalist here in 2018, and he gets a top-16 seed (McIlroy) who does not have his best stuff right now. Smith is +230 to come out of his group, which is another interesting number.