Masters 2017: If you want to win at Augusta, start the tournament in the top 10

From Phil Mickelson in 2006 to Danny Willett in 2016, it pays to make hay early

By Kyle Porter

Apr 1, 2017 at 4:13 pm ET • 1 min read

We all know that every single shot at the Masters is important. From No. 1 to No. 270 or 289 or whatever score wins the tournament, they all count. But if you’re looking to see which golfer is going to win the first major of 2017, you can shrink the group of candidates by a lot after 18 holes.

Or you can recently.

It hasn’t been since 2005 when Tiger Woods was T33 after the first round that somebody has come from outside the top 10 after Round 1 to win a Masters. That’s pretty crazy, right? Here is a look at the last 11 events.

Year	Golfer	R1 Score	R1 Place
2016	Danny Willett	70	T9
2015	Jordan Spieth	64	1
2014	Bubba Watson	69	T2
2013	Adam Scott	69	T10
2012	Bubba Watson	69	T4
2011	Charl Schwartzel	69	T7
2010	Phil Mickelson	67	T2
2009	Angel Cabrera	68	T6
2008	Trevor Immelman	68	T1
2007	Zach Johnson	71	T5
2006	Phil Mickelson	70	T4

There is nothing over par in this group and nobody outside the top 10. It’s pretty incredible, really, considering how volatile the leaderboard normally is at events.

That’s not to say it’s never important to get off to a hot start at a golf tournament. Of course it is. Even golf fans who rarely watch the sport know that much, but it has been paramount on this course at this tournament over the last decade.

With that in mind, here is a look at the eight best in the field this year in terms of Round 1 scoring average since 2005 (Min. three rounds).

Rank	Golfer	R1 Average
1	Jordan Spieth	67.0
2	Marc Leishman	70.5
3	Charley Hoffman	70.7
4	Gary Woodland	70.8
5	Rory McIlroy	70.8
6	Justin Rose	70.9
7	Matt Kuchar	71.0
8	Russell Henley	71.0

It is no surprise that Jordan Spieth is No. 1. His three Round 1 scores are 71, 64 and 66. There are some interesting names just behind him, though. Marc Leishman is a big bopper coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Justin Rose has played well here of late. And Rory McIlroy is Rory McIlroy.

Will this be the year the streak is broken? Who knows, but Augusta has a way of rewarding those who consistently stay in the mix throughout the week. Keep that in mind on Day 1. Of late anyway, Thursday has revealed to us that the Sunday winner will come from a pool of 10 plus. That’s bad news for the rest of the field but easy viewing for those of us following along.