As I started breaking down the 2019 Masters, I realized I didn't know enough about the statistical profile of the Augusta National course, the players and the event itself. So I turned where most people turn for such things to Justin Ray, head of content for 15th Club.

We chatted for 30 minutes about all manner of Masters numbers -- from Lloyd Mangrum to Jordan Spieth and back again. Below are the particulars of our question-and-answer session, edited for brevity and clarity.

Three stat categories to single out at Augusta

Ray: "The first thing I look at is strokes gained approach. It's incredibly significant and an incredible harbinger at the Masters, more so than it even usually is. The last four players to lead the field in strokes gained approach finished 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd. On the flip side, nobody in the last 10 years has won with negative strokes gained off the tee for the season or negative strokes gained approach entering the Masters. It tells you just how significant the ball-striking facet is.

"I think past form at the Masters is important. Past form in this golf tournament is more important than at other places. The intricacies of the course lend to experience mattering more than the typical place. There's a reason why no first timer has won since 1979. If you look at who has the most birdies and who has the best score to par over the last five years, it can give you an idea of who you're going to see. You always see the same names there. That course knowledge is very important.

"Then form that season going into the tournament. There's been 33 winners of the Masters since the world rankings were created, and only two [Angel Cabrera and Zach Johnson] were outside the top 40 in the world. The field is small, but you don't get a whole lot of random winners here. You get the best players in the world. Every once in a while a Charl Schwartzel or Danny Willett will seemingly come out of nowhere, but those guys were playing really well coming into the tournament."

Is a big 'strokes gained' number able to be maintained?

Ray: "If a guy is putting out of his mind, I think there are more variables there in a player's performance than there would be tee to green. But if a guy is playing really well, and it's able to break down [into categories that are sustainable], you get a picture of what are the strengths of his game. It's all contextual. Like any statistic, you need to know the full context of it and understand what it means before you take any of those numbers and run with them as sacrosanct. They're all tools to help tell the story."

Does strokes gained approach matter at Augusta?

Ray: "We don't have oceans of data. They've only had their lasers out there for four years. There's a reason why Tiger Woods is the best iron player of the modern era and has had tons of success at Augusta National. You're going to get more significant 5, 6, 7 irons at Augusta National than at a run of the mill PGA Tour course where you might see more 9 irons, pitching wedges and sand wedges where a guy like [Dustin Johnson or Justin Thomas] can blast it and anywhere it winds up you're able to hit a wedge close. You get more of those low to mid irons at Augusta National, and I think that has a ripple effect on that statistic being important at that course."

Biggest statistical difference at Augusta vs. other majors

Ray: "Well, we get to see it every year. It's the only one where we keep going back every year so you get a much more direct correlation to past performance than you would at a U.S. Open, even though it's kind of the same template ... you literally have the same template at Augusta. Even after the renovation in 2006, it's still the same golf course [compared to, say, a PGA Championship course]. The history paints a more clear picture of what you might see going forward."

More weight: Current form vs. historic success?

Ray: "Usually current form will tell me more about if a player's going to succeed in that particular week with the exception of a few guys. But I think they're both equal, and like I said about the history at the Masters ... it takes time to learn where to miss and leave putts -- the little things that can get you a shot here and a shot there. 

"The testament to players who are in form succeeding at Augusta is you get so few players that are ranked really low in the world rankings pop up and succeed. The last 20 years or so, I want to say 65 percent of those winners had a win already that year going into the tournament on the PGA or European Tour. You can't fake it around Augusta National. And you don't get guys who are in bad shape ball-striking out there. They don't play well."

Variances in strokes gained approach, proximity to the hole

Ray: "DJ goes for the green in two almost as much as anybody. He has the 12th-highest percentage of going for it in two. When he does that, he's able to take advantage of those scoring opportunities, and those shots from further away are worth more in terms of strokes gained against the field because they're more difficult. So a 4-iron to 15 feet is worth way more than a 9-iron to 15 feet. It's also a little bit of a product of a small sample size. If you look at DJ's numbers last year, his proximity is really, really good at the end of the year."

Which holes do winners stake their tournament on?

Ray: "Since Tiger won the 1997 Masters, winners at Augusta National have played best relative to the field on the 3rd hole, the 13th and the 15th. The two back-nine par 5s, that's kind of what you'd expect, right? If you're going to win the tournament, those are the big moments on Saturday and Sunday coming down the stretch. Those two back nine par 5s, players that win are typically .3 shots better than the field on those two holes. The average winner in the last 20 years has been about 8 under for the week on par 5s. 

"One other note on holes is that people always say, 'Oh Tiger always starts all these major championship rounds so poorly.' Winners at the Masters since he won in 1997 have played the 1st hole at Augusta over par. It's not just him. It's everybody on that hole."

Other trends that point to winning at the Masters

Ray: "In 2015, DJ led the Masters in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained putting ... and he finished nine behind Jordan Spieth. That's insane. Jordan was that good with his irons. I think he was second in strokes gained putting. Dustin Johnson led in strokes gained putting and finished nine back! 

"Big picture: It's the least significant place in terms of driving accuracy. You know, watching the Masters, guys can miss it so badly that they're in a good spot. You get far enough beyond the trees you will still have a window on approach shots somewhere you can make it work. I thought it was interesting last year -- everybody talks about the greens -- but Kevin Kisner led the field in strokes gained putting last year and finished 28th. It's so much of a test of decision making and iron play. When you miss where you miss. I thought that was really interesting."

It seems like Spieth hit every stick on the second nine in 2015.

"We always talk about now -- the last few years it's been, 'Oh man, he putted so great in 2015.' Actually, he was the best iron player in the world. He was a really good putter, too. His iron game was just off the charts, and it was at that Masters, too."

What did you learn from the strokes gained project?

[Editor's note: Ray recently went back and recorded strokes gained for all 82 Masters.]

Ray: "I started it because I wanted to put into perspective just how great the first five years of Jordan Spieth's Masters career have been. I ended up going through and finding the best five-year windows in the history of the Masters. You'll learn that Ben Hogan was ridiculous. Not only does he have the most dominant five-year run in the history of the Masters, he has the three most dominant five-year runs in terms of strokes gained against the field in the history of the Masters. He has one, two and three, and Arnold Palmer has four, five, six and seven. Spieth has been fantastic to start his career, but it's nowhere close to the most dominant stretch. 

"In my attempt to try and tell how great the start of Jordan's career is -- and there's a ton of numbers that indicate it is -- you go through the all-time list and you're like, 'This isn't even close. It's not even remotely close to the best five years.'

Is Spieth up there in terms of post-1967 Masters?

"The last 25 years, Tiger and Phil are the only two players with five-year stretches better in terms of strokes gained than Jordan. It's still really, really good. Ben Hogan had all these great finishes and was obviously fantastic, but I tried to find why these numbers are so big. It's because he had all these rounds where the field scoring average is 75, 76 or 77 and he's shooting 66 or 67. It's not his fault. It's the era you play in. You don't get to pick your field you're playing against."

So who will win the 2019 Masters, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Masters leaderboard from the model that nailed Patrick Reed's victory last year, and find out.