Why history says Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson won't win The Open
Jason Day and Jordan Spieth will have to beat the field and beat history in the final three rounds after failing to go under par at The Open Championship
The top three players in the world rankings -- Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day -- were favorites to win the 145th Open Championship this week at Royal Troon, but all three failed to capitalize on terrific scoring conditions Thursday and will now have an uphill climb to get a Claret Jug.
History is not on their side.
Spieth and Johnson both posted even-par 71s, eight back of the lead held by Phil Mickelson at T54, while Day finished with a 2-over 73 (T96). In the last 11 years, only Padraig Harrington has won The Open from outside the top 10 after the first round -- he was T35 after shooting a 74 in 2008 at Royal Birkdale.
Not only does history indicate that three of golf's biggest stars will not win, the weather may dictate that they will continue to struggle on Friday.
| The Open Championship champions after Round 1 | |||
| Year | Location | Golfer | Round 1 place |
| 2015 | St. Andrews | Zach Johnson | T2 |
| 2014 | Royal Liverpool | Rory McIlroy | 1 |
| 2013 | Muirfield | Phil Mickelson | T9 |
| 2012 | Royal Lytham & St. Annes | Ernie Els | T6 |
| 2011 | Royal St. George's | Darren Clarke | T6 |
| 2010 | St. Andrews | Louis Oosthuizen | 2 |
| 2009 | Turnberry | Stewart Cink | T5 |
| 2008 | Royal Birkdale | Padraig Harrington | T35 |
| 2007 | Carnoustie | Padraig Harrington | T8 |
| 2006 | Royal Liverpool | Tiger Woods | T2 |
| 2005 | St. Andrews | Tiger Woods | 1 |
Thursday's conditions were perfect with below 10 mph winds most of the day and clear skies above. Twenty-three players in the morning wave on Thursday posted below par scores, and those players will face the worst of the weather expected to come through Royal Troon on Friday as rain and wind -- gusts up to 37 mph -- are going to roll through and hammer the afternoon groups. That group includes Spieth and Day, who may have missed their best scoring chance of the week.
Johnson has the benefit of playing in the morning on Friday, when the weather is expected to be better than later in the day, but he wasn't nearly as sharp on Thursday as we've seen him over his back-to-back wins.
All three players struggled in ways we don't usually see. Spieth's putting let him down and he was unable to figure out the greens at Royal Troon. Spieth hit 14 greens in regulation in the first round but needed 33 putts to get around, failing to convert on a number of birdie attempts that he's accustomed to making.
Day likewise was off with the putter, needing 31 putts in his round, and his normally crisp ball-striking was not there in the first round either. Day hit only 10 greens in regulation, and when combined with the issues he had putting, that will lead to an over par round.
Johnson's 32 putts might not shock many as he will struggle with putting at times, but he also struggled with driving accuracy, hitting only 8-of-14 fairways. Johnson ripped apart Oakmont thanks to his sensational driving, and with the wind down in the afternoon, most would have thought it was set up for him to bomb it all over. He averaged 310 off the tee but wasn't especially accurate with the driver, which didn't allow him to go at pins.
History and the conditions are working against the top three players in the world rankings after lackluster performances on Thursday. All three will have to find ways to improve significantly and do so in increasingly difficult conditions on Friday. If they can't, they won't factor into the discussion on the weekend.
















