2022 MLB playoffs: Rays vs. Guardians odds, line, Wild Card Series Game 2 picks, predictions from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Game 2 of the Wild Card Series between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays 10,000 times

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 8, 2022 at 8:25 am ET • 3 min read

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The Cleveland Guardians were 10-1 longshots to win the AL Central this year, but now they're just one win away from punching their ticket to the ALDS in the 2022 MLB playoffs. They won Game 1 against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday by a 2-1 margin and now they'll look for the closeout in Game 2 of this Wild Card Series. Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 1.35 ERA) will start for the Rays with Cleveland sending Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA) to the hill.

The first pitch is set for 12:07 p.m. ET. Cleveland is listed at -115 on the money line (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Rays vs. Guardians odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over/under for total runs scored is 6. Before making any Guardians vs. Rays picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it entered the final week of the regular season on an 18-8 run on top-rated money-line MLB picks, returning almost $700 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rays vs. Guardians and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's MLB picks. Here are several MLB odds and trends for Guardians vs. Rays:

Rays vs. Guardians money line: Guardians -115, Rays -105
Rays vs. Guardians run line: Guardians -1.5 (+205)
Rays vs. Guardians over/under: 6 runs
CLE: Guardians are 5-2 agains the Rays this season
TB: Glasnow had a 0.93 WHIP in 2021 and has a 0.90 WHIP in two starts this season
Rays vs. Guardians picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Guardians

Tampa Bay is near the bottom of the league in several hitting categories, and those offensive woes were apparent in Game 1. The Rays had just three hits as they were held to a single run. Now Cleveland is in a great spot with McKenzie on the hill. The 25-year old righty had the fifth-best WHIP in the league this year at 0.95. He enters the playoffs full of confidence after giving up a total of just nine earned runs in his last six starts.

Cleveland isn't an offensive juggernaut but it has the better season-long numbers. The Guardians were seventh in the league in batting average (.254) and 15th in runs score (698). Jose Ramirez leads the way with 29 home runs and his two-run shot was the difference maker in Game 1.

Why you should back the Rays

Glasnow is making his third start coming off Tommy John surgery, but he's been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league in recent years when healthy. He has a 16-4 record since 2019 and his ERA has been over 2.66 just one season during that span. It's uncertain how deep he'll be allowed to go in this one, but he's backed by a great bullpen.

That unit had the seventh-best ERA in the league (3.35) and the third-most strikeouts (658). The Rays don't have a particularly deep lineup, but the top part consisting of Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena certainly has the ability to get hot and extend this series.