Blue Jays vs. Yankees: Five things to know, how to watch and prediction as AL East rivals meet in Buffalo
Believe it or not, this will be their first meeting of the 2020 season
By
Mike Axisa
•
8 min read
Monday night at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will open an important three-game series that could very well determine which team gets the automatic postseason berth as the second-place finisher in the AL East.
Here are the AL East standings as of Monday morning (here is our daily postseason outlook):
- Rays: 28-18
- Blue Jays: 22-18 (5 1/2 GB)
- Yankees: 21-19 (6 1/2 GB)
- Orioles: 19-21 (8 1/2 GB)
- Red Sox: 14-28 (14 1/2 GB)
The Yankees have a 91.7 percent chance to make the postseason while the Blue Jays are at 84.8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Both teams are long shots to catch the Rays for the division title at this point, but second place and that automatic postseason berth (as well as potentially home-field advantage in the first round) are very much up for grabs.
Here are the details for this week's three-game series at Sahlen Field. Games can be streamed regionally on fuboTV (try for free).
| Date | Start time | Starting pitchers | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon., Sept. 7 | 6:37 p.m. ET | LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-1, 2.51) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 5.76) | YES, Sportsnet-1 |
Tues., Sept. 8 | 6:37 p.m. ET | RHP Taijuan Walker (3-2, 3.26) vs. LHP J.A. Happ (1-1, 4.68) | YES, Sportsnet-1, MLBN |
Weds., Sept. 9 | 6:37 p.m. ET | RHP Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.74) vs. TBA | YES, Sportsnet-1, MLBN |
For the Yankees, Wednesday's starter is officially TBA, though manager Aaron Boone confirmed it will be top prospect Deivi Garcia (0-1, 3.38) over the weekend. Garcia started Friday night as the 29th man during a doubleheader and has since remained with the team as a member of their road trip taxi squad. He will be activated and start Wednesday.
Here are five things to know going into this important three-game series as well as a prediction, because why not?
1. It's their first meeting of 2020
Despite being division rivals and despite the condensed 60-game schedule, the Yankees and Blue Jays have not met this season. This will be their first series. Both teams have 20 games remaining and 10 will be head-to-head. They're going to see an awful lot of each other this month.
Here is the Blue Jays and Yankees head-to-head schedule:
- Sept. 7-9: 3 games at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
- Sept. 15-17: 3 games at Yankee Stadium
- Sept. 21-24: 4 games at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
The Yankees went 11-8 against the Blue Jays and outscored them 106-82 last season, but last season is last season, and the 2020 Blue Jays are much more formidable team than the 2019 squad. Their young hitters have more experience and their rotation is greatly improved not only with Ryu, but with their trade deadline additions as well.
2. Toronto is red hot and the Yankees are ice cold
Since bottoming out at 7-11 on Aug. 16, the Blue Jays have won 15 of their last 22 games, the fifth best record in baseball during that stretch. They took three of five from an admittedly weak Red Sox team over the weekend. Toronto's current 15-7 stretch is the club's best 22-game span since a 15-7 stretch in May 2017.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are 13-18 since their 8-1 start, and they've lost 13 of their last 18 games. Only the Diamondbacks and Rangers (both 3-15) have been worse during that time. This is New York's worst 18-game span since a 5-13 stretch in June 2017. The Yankees have held a lead in six of their last 13 losses, including four losses in which they held a lead with no more than six outs to go. They lost three such games all of last season.
3. Both teams are without their top hitters
Arguments can be made that DJ LeMahieu or Luke Voit is the Yankees' best hitter, or that Rowdy Tellez or Cavan Biggio is the Blue Jays' biggest offensive threat. By OPS+ though, both teams will be without their two best hitters this series (min. 50 plate appearances). They're all hurt:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Injury | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SS Bo Bichette | 64 | .361/.391/.672 | 181 | 5 | 13 | Knee sprain |
159 | .308/.358/.637 | 163 | 14 | 27 | Rib cage stiffness | |
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Injury | |
OF Aaron Judge | 71 | .292/.343/.738 | 186 | 9 | 20 | Calf strain |
54 | .293/.453/.585 | 183 | 3 | 7 | Hamstring strain |
Hernandez, who is having a marvelous season, suffered his injury over the weekend and has not yet been placed on the injured list, though that is expected to happen soon, likely prior to Monday night's series opener. He is in danger of missing "serious" time and, given where we are on the calendar, that could mean his season is over.
Bichette has been sidelined since Aug. 15 but he has resumed baseball activities, including taking on-field batting practice over the weekend. Manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that it is "probably not" realistic to expect Bichette to return Monday. The manager did respond, "I think so," when asked whether Bichette is close, however.
For the Yankees, Judge and Stanton both resumed baseball activities in recent days, but are not particularly close to returning. The team is looking at mid-to-late September for their returns. Judge is out with his second calf strain. He suffered the initial calf strain earlier this month, came back from the injured list, then re-injured the calf five innings into his first game.
"He's had a couple of good days and started to ramp up a little bit," Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including NJ.com's Brendan Kuty, when asked about Judge's status over the weekend. "I think Monday we'll start the real progression as far as a lot of baseball activities, more aggressive with some of the running and the buildup."
The Yankees are also without Gio Urshela (bone spur in elbow) and James Paxton (flexor strain), who won't return this series. The Blue Jays are without Ken Giles (flexor strain), Nate Pearson (flexor strain), Jordan Romano (finger strain), and Matt Shoemaker (lat strain), among others. None are due back this weekend. Like just about every team in MLB this year, the Yankees and Blue Jays have lost a lot of key players to injury.
4. They took very different approaches at the deadline
Fair or not, this series -- the season series, really -- will be a referendum on the trade deadline. The Blue Jays bought more than any team other than the Padres, adding three starters (Walker, Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling) and one infielder (Jonathan Villar) in an effort to return to the postseason. They also had a trade for Joe Musgrove fall through, according to MLB reporter Robert Murray.
"It was extremely productive. We feel we made the Major League team better. We've added to the organization without subtracting too much," Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said after the trade deadline, according to the Canadian Press. "Spring training, we knew if this team played to their capability, or even close to it, we'd be in a good position to make the major-league group better."
The Yankees, meanwhile, did not make a trade at the deadline for the second straight year despite numerous injuries and obvious needs on the pitching side. New York welcomed Gleyber Torres back over the weekend but is still without Judge, Paxton, Stanton, Tommy Kahnle, and Luis Severino. Kahnle and Severino are done for the season with Tommy John surgery.
"Without a doubt, the effort was to try to get a controllable starter moving forward, or even a short-term starter to continue to give ourselves a better chance," Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters, including NJ.com's Brendan Kuty. "But the price tags associated on it usually was a subtraction of some impactful player that's currently playing a role or was anticipated to play a very important role for this franchise or the immediate future. So that was the difficulty of trying to navigate the deadline."
If the Blue Jays capitalize on these 10 head-to-head games and take control of second place in the AL East, they'll look smart for being as aggressive as they were at the deadline while the Yankees look complacent. And, if the Yankees win the season series and get the second-place spot, they'll look smart for remaining patient while the Blue Jays look silly for thinking they were ready to go toe to toe with the league's powerhouses.
I'm not saying it'll be right or wrong (seems silly to judge a trade deadline on 10 games to me). I'm just saying the narrative will be too juicy for broadcasters and social media minds to resist. The larger point is the Blue Jays and Yankees took very different approaches at the trade deadline. One team was aggressive and another was conservative.
5. Sahlen Field has played small
The Blue Jays have played 13 games in Buffalo this year and are 8-5. They've outscored their opponents 82-65 in those 13 games. That's an average of 11.3 runs per game (and 3.1 homers per game!) between the two teams.
Sahlen Field is home of the Buffalo Bisons, Toronto's Triple-A affiliate, and last year it was mostly neutral. Baseball America's Matt Eddy ran the numbers and last season Sahlen Field suppressed runs to 98 percent of the league average, so more or less neutral. It inflated homers to 107 percent of the league average, however.
In those 13 games this year, ESPN says Sahlen Field has inflated runs to 121 percent of the league average and home runs to 101 percent of the league average. Only five parks have played more hitter-friendly this year while 14 have been more homer-friendly. It's been an offensive park, for sure.
Of course, we're talking about a very small sample size here, and it is big-league players in a Triple-A ballpark. Play a full 81-game home slate in Sahlen Field and my guess is the park would not play this extreme. So far this year though, it has been an offensive park, and that could lead to an action-packed series this week.
Prediction
Might as well close out with a prediction. I see no need to get cute and try to see beyond the recent trends. The Blue Jays are playing very well and the Yankees are not, so the official CBS Sports prediction is the Blue Jays win two of three. Garcia, who has been awfully impressive in his two starts, saves the Yankees from a sweep on Wednesday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wins the hypothetical series MVP with three homers in the three-game series.
